Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 1/22/2019
We chatted about keepers, ottoneu roster design, and assorted players. Check out the transcript.
3:59 |
: Hey folks, we’ll get started in a few minutes.
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4:00 |
: When drafting a startup dynasty and building for the future, would you fade pitchers completely to try and use auction $ on young hitting with the idea that you’ll compete in 2-3 years? Pitching seems so volatile that I feel like I can build via waivers/trades over the next few years…thanks!
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4:00 |
: That is absolutely one of the main methods to building a roster.
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4:01 | : This is my roster in DTBNL – |
4:01 |
: Which is my patron dynasty league, we just finished our 45-round draft last Wednesday
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4:02 |
: For those who don’t want to click the link. I took 43 hitters and 2 pitchers
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4:02 |
: Daniel Norris and Jordan Montgomery won the pitcher lottery
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4:03 |
: As always, you have to read the room a little. If a third of the league is going this route, you really ought to audible after the most elite prospects are gone.
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4:03 |
: (and tbf, I usually do not use this particular strategy. I’m testing it out)
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4:03 |
: Help! 12 team Points league wins are worth a lot do you keep Paxton or Carrasco?
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4:04 |
: I’d need to know your opportunity costs.
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4:04 |
: They’re both fringe candidates for 20 wins
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4:04 |
: How deep is too deep of a dynasty league? I’m playing in a 50 round, 20 teamer with 25 prospect slots. For a prospect hooligan like me, I love this, but I also feel the parity of the league will be impacted by the more ‘hard-core’ prospect hounds of us.
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4:05 |
: Mandating the 25 prospects might have an unbalancing effect.
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4:05 |
: I know this is usually viewed as a way to avoid rosters like the one I posted earlier
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4:05 |
: But what happens is a few people with better resources/aptitude wind up with the best MLB talent AND prospects
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4:06 |
: And they can continuously upgrade
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4:06 |
: I play in a H2H Points league that changed the values of Holds (previously 5 points) and Saves (previously 8 points) to be equal – both worth 7 points, I think this is great and a forward-thinking approach to valuing relievers in fantasy. 1 – your thoughts on this, and 2 – who would be your top 5 holds guys that might provide sneaky value, given the change above?
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4:06 |
: I haven’t quite gotten around to reviewing bullpens in depth yet – it’s on the agenda for the near future.
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4:07 |
: So I don’t have specific names prepared for holds opportunities. In general, you want to target teams with high win totals.
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4:07 |
: Trade Idea – Maikel Franco and Vince Velasquez for Joey Lucchesi. Who says no? Phils get their lefty starter and can then sign Machado or Moustakas for third. Thoughts?
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4:07 |
: Both teams? I don’t see the fit tbh
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4:08 |
: The Phillies are drowning in pitching prospects of Lucchesi’s quality or better. So why wouldn’t they prefer Velasquez instead? Maybe I’m out on a limb in preferring Velasquez to Lucchesi for 2019?
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4:09 |
: I just don’t see any reason for the Phillies to want a maybe homer prone lefty.
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4:10 |
: As for San Diego, the fit for Franco is there if the Phillies land a different third baseman
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4:10 |
: But maybe a low minors prospect instead?
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4:10 |
: Who do you think closes for the Brewers this year?
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4:11 |
: At this rate, Craig Kimbrel. Right?
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4:11 |
: Knebel
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4:11 |
: Altuve or Stanton keepers in 5×5 ottoneu at $50 a piece?
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4:11 |
: Altuve over Stanton. Both are keepable.
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4:11 |
: In the right situation
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4:11 |
: you should not feel bad about cutting them either
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4:12 |
: Looking at ceiling only, who are some lesser known potential studs in the minors? I am thinking along the lines of Brujan, Rocchio, Luciano.
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4:13 |
: After doing this 25-team, 45-player draft in all prospect mode, I’m completely lost. I’ve drowned in prospects. A few I picked who I feel very strongly about are Xavier Edwards, Luciano, and Alexander Vargas.
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4:14 |
: Edwards in particular has a Dee Gordon with OBP vibe to him
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4:14 |
: I was sad to miss Phillies Luis Garcia. Though I did get Nationals Luis Garcia.
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4:14 |
: And that’s not to be confused with Angels Luis Garcia.
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4:14 |
: Hi Brad..keeper question for ya. Which 4 would you keep out of these guys – Yelich (5th rd), Buehler (10th rd), Soto (10th rd), Nola (14th rd), Bellinger (18th rd), JFlaherty (20th rd) ?
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4:15 |
: Soto, Nola, Yelich, … … …
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4:15 |
: Probably Bellinger
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4:15 |
: League depth matters a little
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4:16 |
: Hey brad. Thanks again for the chat. 5X5 12 man auction league ($300). I think my 5 keepers are story @21, yelich @31, verlander @32, Flaherty @14 and wheeler @5. Should I trade yelich for 2 of these guys: whit@13, rhys@10, mondesi@5 and haniger@4. So I’d probably drop wheeler and keep those 2 instead of yelich and wheeler.
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4:16 |
: Well if you saw Jeff Zimmerman’s post last week, Mondesi is a must (projected better than Yelich)
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4:16 |
: Take it with a grain of salt 🙂
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4:17 |
: I do think I’d do Mondesi and Hoskins for Yelich.
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4:18 |
: They both have like a 20% chance or so to outperform Yelich. Then you’re also getting multi-year value.
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4:18 |
: I love Brad
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4:18 |
: And I love lamp
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4:18 |
: Reynaldo Lopez top 60 SP next year or not there yet? What about Rodon?
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4:18 |
: They’re both back end of the Glob for me. That’s well outside the top 60
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4:19 |
: Youve mentionned you use a type of Stars and Scrubs strategy in Ottoneu. Why do you think it works well in that format, and how do you value your “stars” No auction calculator is going to have too many guys valued in the 50’s and up but you seem to say that a bunch of guys should be kept that high
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4:19 |
: As an industry – and this extends to real baseball too – we think about value wrong
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4:19 |
: The game is a maximization formula on our resources
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4:20 |
: For the purposes of ottoneu, we need to maximize the value of our $400 so it actually plays like $600.
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4:21 |
: So I preach rostered the best elite talents available to you at whatever they cost
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4:22 |
: You’ll also have to consider the non-elite guys who exist as “values” and strike a balance
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4:22 |
: This is all based on opportunity
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4:22 |
: Obviously it’s nice to not overpay budget for elite players. In my experience, that can’t be reliably accomplished in the auction
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4:23 |
: So you might as well know who you have pre-auction.
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4:23 |
: Keep 1: Kluber for 30$ or Greinke at 20$
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4:23 |
: Pretty close to a push without other info. In these case, I prefer the better player and to trust myself to make it work with less money
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4:24 |
: These last two questions reveal something about my own preferences. Because my job is to know a little something about every player, I’m comfortable going to many $1 players in just about any format. It’s a built in strength for me.
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4:25 |
: If you’re less comfortable mucking about with the slop, then you should be more mindful of your budgets.
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4:25 |
: That said, if you’re participating in a Tuesday afternoon chat on FanGraphs, I suspect you’re also pretty comfy reaching deep into the waiver wire
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4:26 |
: In a 30-team dynasty league with 6 hitting categories (AVG, BB, XBH, HR, SB, PA), would you rather own the next 4 years of Ozzie Albies, or the first 6 years of Keston Hiura’s major league career?
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4:26 |
: Depends on my roster status. If I’m contending, gimme Albies. And vice versa.
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4:26 |
: Huira is not “can’t miss” by the way
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4:27 |
: So if you’re very risk averse, you may prefer Albies in both scenarios
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4:27 |
: Although I like Huira enough to take a shot (I also dislike Albies more than most)
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4:27 |
: Beni and Eduardo Rodriguez for Seager and Corey Dickerson, 12 team roto keep forever. SS going into the year would have been Eduardo Escobar
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4:28 |
: I don’t hate it. Seager leaves a little on the table in 5×5, but he’s still very good. SS is very deep though. There should have been better cheap options available for purchase than Escobar
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4:28 |
: Marte, Peraza, Profar jump to mind – and I may be digging deeper than necessary
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4:29 |
: Are you believer in Reynaldo Lopez’s second half? I was impressed it all came together when pitching beyond his highest amount of innings pitched.
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4:29 |
: I believe he’s a viable MLB pitcher with questionable fantasy utility
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4:29 |
: He’s a streamer at best
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4:29 |
: How much trade value does Tony Kemp have?
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4:29 |
: Real or fantasy?
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4:29 |
: I wish they would set him free. I think the answer is close to none though.
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4:29 |
: Ottoneu Points – would you deal $19 K. Davis for $68 Trout pre-auction?
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4:30 |
: Without more info, yes.
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4:30 |
: Keep Schoop in otto FG points at $13?
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4:30 |
: No
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4:30 |
: Run
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4:30 |
: When are the ATC projections coming out?
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4:31 |
: That’s Ariel Cohen’s system so he would know better than me. I think I saw he finalized them yesterday. Should be up later this week in that case.
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4:31 |
: Do you think Ken Giles holds the Blue Jays closer job this year?
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4:31 |
: That’s up to him
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4:31 |
: If he doesn’t hold it, you’ll already be very sad with his performance
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4:32 |
: If someone put a gun to your head and forced you to bet on which of the current fantasy aces (e.g. Scherzer, Verlander, Kluber, etc) would sustain their success the most long term, who would you choose?
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4:32 |
: By age, I’d say Verlander (he already has a head start)
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4:33 |
: By years… I’ll go Chris Sale (he’s relatively young)
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4:33 |
: Aaron Nola’s another good bet
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4:33 |
: AL OBP: Mondesi or Mallex?
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4:33 |
: Mondesi
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4:33 |
: Mallex is higher floor, but there’s risk of a bust there too
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4:33 |
: Just looked at the rays prospect list. Damn.
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4:33 |
: Indeed. They have some prospects.
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4:33 |
: Which end of your breakout do you believe more: Mondesi or Voit? (if it matters, this is an AL-only OBP league owner asking)
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4:34 |
: I think Voit is a legit 1B. They’ll obviously both regress.
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4:34 |
: Mondesi is believable enough too
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4:34 |
: no OBP, low AVG, and enough HR/SB that you won’t care
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4:34 |
: The profile is Billy Hamilton with power
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4:35 |
: Do you like Mondesi or Hoskins over the next 5 years?
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4:35 |
: Oof. I think the safe money is Hoskins.
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4:35 |
: But Mondesi can make that look VERY bad
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4:36 |
: Put another way, Hoskins is a high floor, high ceiling guy. Mondesi is almost a no floor, top 3 pick ceiling.
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4:36 |
: Our 12-team dynasty league recently had a six-team trade. Ever see anything like that?
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4:36 |
: No. I’ve seen over 20 players moved in a 2-team trade
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4:36 |
: Do I have top 15 fantasy SP potential this year?
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4:36 |
: Fringe
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4:37 |
: The top pitchers are still quite good.
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4:37 |
: I’m rebuilding in an 18 team root dynasty league. We only have 27 roster slots. As a general rule, does it make sense to build hitting first before pitching?
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4:37 |
: Definitely. It’s just a much more reliable route to value.
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4:38 |
: Based on their own preferences, your leaguemates will decide if you should diversify with pitchers and hitters or only go with hitters.
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4:38 |
: Miggy’s Steamer projections: A) he’ll come up short B) he’ll meet them C) he’ll out perform them
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4:38 |
: I’d bet slightly short
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4:38 |
: Where do you have Strasburg
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4:39 |
: Pretty high. I don’t do rankings anymore as they’re just not helpful for any of the leagues I do.
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4:39 |
: Have you ever went into a draft convinced to not draft a certain player, then drafting him, then immediately regretting it only for the player to have a great year in spite of your efforts to trade him all year? If so, who was it?
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4:39 |
: Yasiel Puig most years.
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4:40 |
: Getting overly excited about Trevor Richards would you mind throwing a bucket of cold water on T-Rich
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4:40 |
: Yea sure. If you’re in a wins league, you should take a gander at his bullpen
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4:40 |
: And then glance around that division
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4:40 |
: And check in on his run support too
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4:41 |
: So a good outcome for Richards is something like 5 wins, a strikeout per inning, a 3.80 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP. That’s a streamer in 12-team.
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4:42 |
: Keep 4: Carpenter ($17), Goldschmidt ($47), Soto ($17), Acuna ($20), E. Suarez ($1), or Bellinger ($22). Could keep Goldy forever at that price, everyone else will be subject to mandatory inflation.
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4:43 |
: This is tough without a lot more info
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4:44 |
: Soto and Acuna on name value alone have to be kept. A $1 Suarez is exciting. Bellinger is probably the easiest for me to put aside. I don’t know how $47 compares to other elite hitters in your league.
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4:45 |
Which two do you take between: Haniger ($6, but meh and replaceable), Cano ($7, but now old), and Mikolas ($8, innings but bound to regress)? It’s a choice to cut Mikolas or Haniger, right? |
4:45 |
: I’d be thinking to cut Cano or Mikolas personally.
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4:46 |
: I think the cut is Cano
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4:46 |
: Thinking about the 10-team 2B landscape, you can get Cesar Hernandez for basically last round value
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4:46 |
: And if someone takes him, a dozen other viable bats are out there with eligibility.
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4:48 |
: would you trade Albies for Severino straight up in a roto 5×5 league? (Assuming you have Shaw/Senzel/Urias ready to take his spot)
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4:48 |
: I would do that without any backup
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4:48 |
: I’m assuming 12 team or smaller
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4:49 |
: Will Vlad Jr. deliver significant value this year? I.e., will he get 400+ AB to make it worth taking him in the 3rd or 4th rounds ? If so, is it worth taking him in the 2nd round?
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4:50 |
: This is one of the hardest questions in shallow redraft formats. I could see going as high as late second round on the off chance he’s amazing. But I’d probably let others invest that high
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4:50 |
: If you have Shaw and Chapman in dynasty – which one are you looking to move? Chapman has more name brand at the moment and might bring back more overall value.
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4:50 |
: Do you have to move one of them? I think they’re both good bets to gain value over the next half season+
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4:50 |
: Thoughts on Jon Gray this year?
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4:50 |
: As always, a physically talented pitcher living in pitcher hell
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4:51 |
: Just because some guys figure it out doesn’t mean Gray will
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4:51 |
: Re: keeping $47 Goldy v. $17 carpenter…. Trout was priciest free agent at $71. Most studs go for high 40’s or low 50’s. I’m tempted to lock in the elite production (OBP league) with the pricier Goldy, even though it may not be the most efficient move…
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4:51 |
: I think locking in Goldy is reasonable
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4:52 |
: And I’m not 100% on Suarez over Carpenter tbh despite the $16. You have to assess what an additional $16 can get you in the auction
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4:52 |
: Carp>Suarez, but it’s not a huge gap
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4:52 |
: But $16 can be deceptively little in a keeper league auction
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4:52 |
: Ozzie Albies or Freddie Freeman, dynasty points league?
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4:52 |
: So EZ Freeman
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4:53 |
: Dynasty points league with K-heavy scoring for pitchers: Freddie Freeman for Glasnow and Jake Bauers?
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4:53 |
: Freeman side by miles and miles and miles
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4:53 |
: That’s about 15% of Freeman
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4:53 |
: Maybe less
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4:53 |
: No hyperbole
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4:53 |
: so in a redraft – how high do you take vlad? 3rd? 4th?
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4:54 |
: I think I seriously consider it in the 4th and 5th rounds. Which means I don’t get to have him
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4:54 |
: Will Willy Adames be worth holding this year? Is his realistic upside a potential Lindor type break out (given the background) or just a lower level starter?
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4:54 |
: I don’t see Lindor in there at all
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4:55 |
: I’m really unimpressed with Adames overall. I’ll take dynasty shares on the pedigree to see what happens, but I think the likeliest outcome winds up feeling like a more powerful Arcia.
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4:55 |
: Muncy, Tyler White, Voit, O’Hearn…. please rank for this year and dynasty
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4:55 |
: Well, it’s Muncy and pick your poison
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4:56 |
: I like all 3 of those guys, but they’re the same asset class
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4:56 |
: Positive peripherals, small samples
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4:56 |
: What about Mondesi vs. Jorge Polanco? (AL only, OBP) Thanks!
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4:56 |
: EZ Mondesi
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4:56 |
: I really like Polanco, but he’s just a high floor guy
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4:57 |
: Mondesi’s OBP is lethal, but any guy who can cruise to 60 HR+SB doesn’t need to be a 5-cat guy
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4:57 |
: Vizcaino or Minter as most likely to finish the season with more saves?
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4:57 |
: I’ll say 60/40 Minter
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4:57 |
: Viz rarely finishes seasons
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4:57 |
: Muncy had good numbers vs. lefties last year. Think Dodgers grant him 1B every day?
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4:58 |
: They would if I were running the show. But they’ll continue to play matchups and get guys frequent rest
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4:58 |
: I’d pencil in 575 PA with most of the off days vs LHP
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4:58 |
: Dynasty points league: Albies for Glasnow and jake bauers?
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4:58 |
: I sense some triangulating
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4:59 |
: So far, I’ve preferred Freeman to Albies and Freeman to Glasnow/Bauers
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4:59 |
: I also would go Albies over the pair
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4:59 |
: I’ll estimate that’s about half the price of Albies
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4:59 |
: Maybe more like 30%
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4:59 |
: Somewhere in that range
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4:59 |
: Who’s next?
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5:00 |
: Is Ryon Healy worth taking a flier on in a 16 team league this season?
|
5:00 |
: Yea sure, see if he flies
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5:00 |
: He’s unimpeded – or he will be if he’s not traded.
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5:00 |
: And that’s deep enough to stash guys who were briefly good years ago
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5:01 |
: Might as well double down with Vogelbach too
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5:01 |
: Is Austin Dean worth rostering this year in deep or NL-only leagues?
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5:01 |
: It’s got to be very deep
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5:02 |
: There’s a chance he turns into a kind of Jon Jay-like player. I’d bet the under on that though.
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5:02 |
: In your stars and scrubs Ottoneu approach, is it almost a given you’ll wind up spending only $1-2 on the RPs?
|
5:02 |
: It frequently goes that way
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5:03 |
: I end up with some $10 RP too
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5:03 |
: $18-quality guys like Roberto Osuna who hit the waiver wire because their team needed cap room in-season.
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5:03 |
: Got some Osuna, Betances, and Britton shares in that fashion
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5:04 |
: Do you see Kyle Seager as a good bounce back candidate or is he cooked?
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5:04 |
: I think he’ll bounce to around a 100 wRC+
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5:04 |
: He’s been left behind by an improving 3B landscape
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5:04 |
: You buying shares of Sonny Gray?
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5:04 |
: No.
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5:04 |
: Are you concerned with Kenley Jansen heading into this season?
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5:05 |
: Only as concerned as I always am about heavy workload relievers
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5:05 |
: Matt Strahm going to stick in the rotation? Or do you think he’ll wind up in the bullpen where he belongs?
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5:05 |
: I think he could wind up as a Follower. Or an Opener (he did a couple last season)
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5:05 |
: Who has a better 2019, Brandon or Nate Lowe?
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5:05 |
: I think we’ll look back in 3 years and wonder why we made so much fuss about the Lowes.
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5:06 |
: Here’s a bold prediction. In 7 years, Josh Lowe will be the best player by that surname produced by the Rays.
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5:06 |
: He doesn’t have to play for the Rays to qualify
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5:07 |
: (Nor do the others)
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5:07 |
: Wander Franco majors ETA? Worth stashing in limited keeper dynasty?
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5:07 |
: On the name brand alone, a stash seems reasonable.
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5:07 |
: ETA is like 2022?
|
5:07 |
: It’s the Rays. They hold back everybody.
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5:08 |
: You didn’t have to make water that cold for T-Rich! I’m a heavy “curator” with my pitcher’s starts I when I remove his starts that I would have sat him for his statline is much much more exciting, I’ll share my results later. On a side note is there a way to remove starts against top 5 offenses and @coors for an overall stat line i end up doing this by hand for pitchers and its very time consuming
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5:08 |
: Not that I’m aware of
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5:08 |
: It’s something I’ve put thought into and received no return
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5:08 |
: Just browsing through the team rosters for dtbnl is like working! Uf ta.
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5:09 |
: Indeed
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5:09 |
: Re: Healy – BABIP tanked after moving from Oakland. Seattle effect or just bad luck?
|
5:09 |
: I’ll check
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5:09 |
: As I recall, he should be a low BABIP hitter
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5:10 |
: Yea, lots of soft-med pulled grounders
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5:10 |
: few extra IFFB last year so he could BABIP a bit higher. Say .280 range
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5:11 |
: Oh and that’s where the projections have him too – .287 to .289.
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5:11 |
: Odds the Pirates flip Vasquez and give the closing job to Richard Rodriguez?
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5:11 |
: Don’t they have Keone Kela?
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5:11 |
: By which I mean, they have Keone Kela
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5:12 |
: So I’ll say 25% they trade Vazquez and 15% Rodriguez is the guy who back fills
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5:12 |
: Are there any common buzzwords on young players you like/dislike? Like do you draft/avoid guys who “have a little too much swing and miss right now but if he improves that he’s a star”, great athletes whose worst tool is hit, guys who just need to improve their changeup, etc.
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5:12 |
: Did you…
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5:12 |
: I literally have tomorrow’s post in the queue about three scouting phrases you can ignore
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5:12 |
: Have you hacked me?
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5:13 |
: Soft ethics question – one of my real-life friends in my league asked me for advice about a trade with another person in my league. The same exact deal has been offered to me as well. I told my friend simply “I cannot comment on this because of other negotiations” but should I feel bad if I go through with the deal after all?
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5:14 |
: I’m sure your friend will learn to go elsewhere for advice 🙂
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5:14 |
: Not a lot you can do about it, right?
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5:14 |
: Better keeper – Aguilar or Dahl? I have Beni and Meadows at OF already and Hoskins to play either 1B or OF.
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5:14 |
: I’m a naysayer on both of those guys
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5:15 |
: I’ll note Dahl has a lot of helium. You can probably trade him for more.
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5:15 |
: I have the option to sell (some of) the farm to acquire Chris Sale on a market-rate deal. h2h points so pitchers are worth big money, and any tossed in tot he auction go for well over what Sale would cost. My next-best starter worth keeping is Corbin. Do I go for it?
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5:15 |
: I’m a little wary of the injuries so it depends what selling the farm means
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5:15 |
: We talking easily replaceable prospects of Tatis-level assets
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5:16 |
: If given the choice of Hiura or Madrigal in a dynasty draft, who would you select?
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5:16 |
: I think I’m supposed to say Hiura, but I LOVE high contact hitters
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5:16 |
: Markakis?
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5:16 |
: Of course the Braves signed him
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5:16 |
: ok, time to wrap it up
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5:17 |
: How/where can I find people for a new dynasty league? Any tips?
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5:17 |
: I’ve been getting this question a lot… I might try to integrate something into my Patreon. Existing resources are things like reddit.
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5:18 |
: Leclerc, W. Smith or Viz – Do you like any of these closers for 2019? If so, how do you rank and what kind of confidence in skills/roles of each?
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5:18 |
: Pretty sure Leclerc is a top 10 closer until the Rangers trade him
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5:18 |
: The other guys will have trouble keeping the role for various reasons
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5:19 |
: Ok, thanks for playing folks. We’ve officially reached the point in the offseason when I can no longer answer 80%+ of the questions.
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5:19 |
: Probably got to a little over half. Sorry if I missed yours.
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I don’t want to sound snarky, seriously, but I find your oft repeated claim that you don’t do/like/use rankings a tad disengenuous. When you think about pitchers for a particular league format, do you like this guy more than that guy, and that guy more than this guy? Those are rankings, whether put on paper or not. Just sayin.
It’s situational, and I think of them as asset classes/baskets of skills. I’ll try to answer questions that ask me to assign a rank, but that’s not how I naturally think about players. And I believe doing so is detrimental to good performance.
For instance, I sent an offer that included moving my Thor @ $39 plus extras for DeGrom @$34 plus an extra. But the main incentive for me was the $5 I could save going into the draft. I see both pitchers as aces and think either could outperform the other, and I only value DeGrom more because of the savings.
If this had been a league without costs associated to the players, there wouldn’t be a point in my moving Thor for DeGrom: again, either could outperform the other so there’s no point in spending extra resources to get an equally talented pitcher.