Boxscore Bits: May 3rd, 2022

A few thoughts on the games from Monday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Trying a new setup where I wrote the SPs in order of the boxscores on ESPN instead of in order of the chart. Better? Worse? No different? The chart is sortable so I feel like it’s proabably OK, but lemme know in the comments!

• The finesse battle in St. Louis between Steven Matz and Zack Greinke was a thriller! A Paul Goldschmidt HR on the 2nd batter of the game held up as the difference in a 1-0 duel. Greinke simply cannot miss bats anymore with a comical 7% K rate and there’s just no way I can see this 2.57 ERA maintaining. With the ball in play that often, you just must be so fortunate, and the defense simply cannot make any mistakes to maintain this level of success. Be very careful here. Matz bounced back from a dud (4 IP/4 ER) and now has 3 gems and 2 duds on the season with a 26% K rate. He is a team streamer right now and with both of his next starts against SF, I can totally understand sitting him.
• How could Dylan Cease not have an amazing outing looking that clean in the City Connect uniform with that dope mustache? His command looks improved this year highlighted by a 0.3 HR/9 in 29 IP and he had his control looking sharp with a 0 BB performance on Monday! He has ascended to a Top 20 starter and it’s hard not to be remarkably excited about what’s in store for the 26-year-old righty. (Edit: first iteration didn’t have the “not” in there which greatly changes the sentence, lol!)
• Patrick Sandoval couldn’t command his fastball but survived for a baseline quality start. He managed just a pair of strikeouts, but still had a 12% SwStr rate which just a tick off his 13% season rate. I’m not too worried about this outing and I’m actually encouraged by him setting a new season high in pitches at 96.
• I haven’t really included RP stuff in here before since we have the excellent Bullpen Report for that, however it’s good to see Liam Hendriks cooking again after that 3 ER meltdown at MIN on 4/24. His velo was up to a season-high 98.6 mph and he fanned the side for his 5th SV.
• The ERA regression started for Pablo López on Monday night and some of it was the fluky variety. David Peralta’s 2-run HR in the 1st inning put Lopez behind early and then a pair of back-to-back soft serve singles by Jordan Luplow and Peralta pushed across the 3rd and 4th runs, ending Lopez’s night after just 4.7 IP. He was actually still really sharp most of the night with 7 Ks and 18 swinging strikes (19% SwStr, 33% CSW). No one is maintaining a sub-1.00 ERA and sometimes that regression comes via less-than-stellar hits.
• Zac Gallen also entered with a sub-1.00 ERA and the 2 ER he allowed actually tripled his season ER count! He looked sharp again as he continues to build his workload with a season-high 6.3 IP and 102 pitches.
• I was keyed in on Chris Paddack’s start after hearing him discuss his 3rd pitch development during the DET/MIN series. He only threw the curveball 14% of the time on Monday, but also threw 7 cutters (or sliders, there isn’t agreement on what it is between the pitch classification sites). Neither pitch was particularly useful (2 hits of the curve, only 1 whiff in 18 pitches between the two). All three of his strikeouts came via the changeup. It was still a good outing, but he remains a work-in-progress and should probably be strategically utilized. He is slated for OAK and CLE his next two times out, which are easy starts.
• Tyler Wells took a different approach on Monday, dialing down his fastball usage (-16 pts from last start to 37%) funneling it into his changeup (+11 to 21%) and curve (+6 to 10%). Those pitches yielded mediocre results (2-5, 1 K, 3 whiffs on 28 pitches), but the overall start was solid. He gets KC next, and I’d use him for that start.
• Jordan Montgomery needed just 65 pitches to finish five strong (5 K, 0 BB, 2 ER), though I’m again left wondering why his pitch count is regressing. He’s gone 58, 71, 86, 71, 65 in his five starts. After an 8-pitch 5th inning, he got one batter in the 6th and was replaced after a Bo Bichette single. It was 6 straight righties starting with Bichette and while JorMont does have a bit of a platoon as a lefty, I still find it a bit curious he was pulled so quickly. I’d like to see him challenged to attack a difficult lineup of righties.
• It seems Ross Stripling is on the two times through lineup model which drastically cuts into his fantasy value as he regularly goes just 4 IP meaning he can’t get wins with any consistency even on a good team. He made it 5 IP against BOS, but the offense didn’t support him. He can really only be rostered in leagues where you can just use some decent innings because he doesn’t excel in Ks and won’t get many Ws.
• It was good to see Marco Gonzales back on the bump after getting blasted by a 109-mph liner early into his last start. He was playing catch the day after and vowed to make his next start, which he did! He was fine given the opponent but managed just 2 Ks in the baseline quality start. Most people probably sat him here anyway given the injury last time out or just because it was at HOU.
• Back-to-back gems have gotten Jake Odorizzi back on track (4.15 ERA, 1.39 WHIP). He still feels like a standard streamer at best and was likely scooped in deeper formats for this 2-step that includes DET this weekend. I’d be more interested if he had better than a 13% K rate through 21.7 IP.
• I’m just not sure the Rays see Drew Rasmussen as more than an 80-85 pitch guy which means he will be a consistent 5-inning guy. He can still deliver value doing that, but it does mitigate his win upside, even on a good team like Tampa Bay. He is an all-formats player who you are starting virtually all the time because the ratios and Ks should be strong, but I think he is capped in terms of overall value until (or unless) the Rays loosen the reins on him as a two times through guy.

STOLEN BASES

• Tim Locastro (4)
• Tyler Wade (3)
• Aaron Judge (2)
• Jon Berti (2)
• DJ LeMahieu (1)
• Seth Brown (1)
• Jordan Luplow (1)

PT NOTES

• Bobby Dalbec has played just 1 of the last 3 games and has just a 30 wRC+. Franchy Cordero has started at 1B in the other 2 games.
• Jordan Luplow has started 3 straight, all against righties. He’s known for his lefty domination (career OPS: .661 vR; .904 vL) but is 4-12 in that time with 2 HR and 1 SB in 2 tries. Something to watch, but not actionable outside of something like NL-Only leagues at this point.
• Akil Baddoo has played twice since April 25th, slotting 9th both times. He hasn’t batted higher than 9th since April 19th (7th). I’m cutting in all formats outside of maybe AL-Only leagues. It is a very painful cut as I loved him coming into the season, but he just doesn’t play. I have no idea why he has just been buried, but I don’t think even his biggest detractors saw this coming.
• With Eddie Rosario out getting his eyes fixed, Travis Demeritte is the full-time LF thus far. He is off to a fast start, too, with a 194 wRC+ and 2 HR in 30 PA.
• Edward Olivares has started 4 of 5 – 2 vR and 2 vL. He has a 126 wRC+ and 2 SBs on the season (27 PA).

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Tuesday, May 3rd:

• Charlie Morton starts Game 1 of the doubleheader and while I’m not cutting him yet, I’m keeping tabs on every start in hopes of a turnaround.
• Ryan Yarbrough returns from the IL and squares off against early surprise righty Paul Blackburn.
• Trevor Rogers is still working off that ugly 1.7 IP/7 ER meltdown v. PHI, but he’s had back-to-back gems and ARI gives him a great shot at a third straight.
• Kyle Wright has become must-watch for me!
• Joe Ryan has been brilliant since a 4 BB season opener and I think he keeps it going tonight in BAL.
• Alek Manoah is unfazed by NYY and it’ll be fun to see him take them on tonight in his home park.
• Noah Syndergaard’s 13% SwStr says the Ks are coming. Thor has just a 16% K rate to this point, but I’m not worried.
• Carlos Rodón is a true ace so even with a tough trip to LAD on the docket, I expect him to excel.
• His opponent is Julio Urías and nobody would be surprised if they both put up 7 scoreless despite the strong lineups each is facing.