Boxscore Bits: May 24th, 2022

A few thoughts on the pitchers from Monday’s games:

(lighter edition due to some unforeseen schedule changes on my end)

FOR STARTERS

Business As Usual: Nothing actionable

• Gerrit Cole (1 bad inning, still went 8 IP), Zack Wheeler, Miles Mikolas, Luis Garcia, Adrian Houser, Chad Kuhl (non-Coors edition), Chris Archer (still just 4 IP)

Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention

• Tyler Anderson – Anderson had some solid skills with PIT and SEA last year which have been amplified with LAD by way of the changeup. He has upped the usage 7 points to 32% and the results have been incredible. It has the top Pitch Value at 7.3, 2nd-best SwStr at 28% (min. 80 thrown; avg is 17%), 5th-highest Chase Rate at 48% (avg is 36%), 6th-best OPS at .255 (avg is .594) with more thrown (197) than the five ahead of him (ranging 88-155). The tough part is that virtually all the success hinges on that changeup as his two fastballs (separate 4-seamer & sinker) are allowing a 1.006 OPS in 66 PA. Meanwhile, his cutter has been a bit worse than average (.784 OPS; avg is .714). He gets the second part of his 2-step this weekend at ARI and then NYM comes to LA next week.
• Triston McKenzie – McKenzie posted a 4th straight start with a 60+ Game Score (a solid shorthand to determine fantasy worthiness). He has reached 6 IP in all four, going 3-1, and notching 20 Ks with a 15% K-BB rate in 26.3 IP. After 13 Ks in the first two starts, he has 7 over his last two, but I’m not too worried given the opponents (at MIN, at HOU) and the fact that his 14% SwStr is a substantial jump from the 10% in his first 6 outings of the year and suggests the Ks will be there over the long haul.
• José Berríos – I probably would’ve taken him out after the HR to Juan Yepez in the 7th and been happy with 6.3 IP of 2-run ball, but they decided to push and he gave up back-to-back singles, one of which scored off Adam Cimber. This was still a solid outing in a tough spot – the park is nice for pitchers, but StL is 8th in wRC+ (113) at home v. righties with the 3rd-lowest K% at 18%.
• David Peterson – A masterful start to a difficult 2-step at SF and v. PHI. A 5-run second gave him a lead that the Mets wouldn’t relinquish with Peterson going 6 strong IP with 6 Ks on 99 pitches.
• JT Brubaker – After quietly chiseling his ERA down from 9.82 to 5.50 in six starts, he dropped it nearly a full run last night with 0 ER (1 unearned) in 6.7 IP. His 4.64 ERA is a lot closer to his 3.98 SIERA and if he can strand runners more consistently (60% LOB rate; avg is 72%), there is upside here. Michael Simione also discussed Brubaker in his latest Throwing Heat.

Decent Enough: Mostly biz as usual but with some commentary

• Nick Martinez – Just want to point out that with Clev Dog on the IL, there is room for Martinez assuming they continue the 6-man which they seem committed to given some health (Snell, Manaea, Darvish) and youth (Gore) concerns. He is still walking a few too many (11%), but I do wonder if some of these 4th-starter types are open to giving up more free passes given the scarcity of hits league wide. Maybe there is no intent to it and he is just getting lucky that those walks aren’t hurting him too much. The 1.36 WHIP is too high while the 3.86 ERA and 25% K rate give him deeper league appeal.

Duds: The worst of the day

• Alex Cobb – Cobb is one of those obvious buy lows with skills well beyond his 6.25 ERA. In fact, sometimes these are such obvious “buy lows” that the fantasy manager with them doesn’t even want to sell at a discount because everyone realizes Cobb deserves better. He has a 28% K, 6% BB, 12% SwStr rate, and 0.9 HR/9 in 31.7 IP, good for a 2.51 SIERA. His .411 BABIP and 49% LOB rate are major outliers. This can be the downside of a heavy groundball approach (66% – 1st in MLB): more opportunities for cheap hits. Cobb’s Exit Velo is down 3 mph, but 20% of his PA have resulted in a single (avg is 14%), tied for 3rd-most with teammate Alex Wood who has a 50% GB rate and 2 mph dip in Exit Velo. Cobb is far too available in shallow formats (48% Y!, 30% E) and I’d be willing to buy even without any sort of major discount.
• Tucker Davidson – This is what 40 command gets you! Davidson’s first three outings this year are a microcosm of that volatility: 5, 0, 5 ER. He has some capable swing-and-miss stuff when he’s on, but when you can’t really command an already-weak fastball, you live on a very thin margin.
• Marco Gonzales – This just comes with the package. Gonzales had four outings of 5+ ER last year and five back in 2019. It’s part of being a finesse pitcher with mid-to-high teens K rates. The 10.2 H/9 is alarming, though, as it has his WHIP at 1.50 and that isn’t the package we signed up for with him. You take on the elevated ERA in exchange for the quality WHIP. His walk rate is up a tick, too, but the hits are doing the major damage.

MINOR LEAGUE TUESDAY

Highlighting some key minor leaguers who could be the next big fantasy producers. Today, I turn my attention toward a pair of Double-A guys:

• Corbin Carroll | OF, ARI – The hype on Alek Thomas isn’t unwarranted, but it might seemed muted compared to what will happen when Carroll gets the call. The 21-year-old is tearing up Double-A right now with a 182 wRC+, 12 HR, and 13 SB in 169 PA. This already qualifies as his longest stay as a pro as he was drafted in 2019, had the pandemic year in 2020, and then was felled by shoulder surgery in 2021 after just 7 games. With a full season last year, he might have been ahead of Thomas for a call-up, but for now we wait. Thomas needed a Carson Kelly injury to open his spot as it moved Daulton Varsho behind the dish. Thomas, Pavin Smith, and David Peralta have the outfield well secured right now, though if Carroll keeps it up at this pace, he may force his way up. I imagine he’ll hit Triple-A first, just keep tabs on him so you’re ready when he gets the call.
• Reese Olson | P, DET – It seems the Tigers lose a pitcher every day lately which could expedite Olson’s ascent. He was the return from Milwaukee for Daniel Norris last year. The 22-year-old righty has shown consistently strong swing-and-miss capability. He netted just a 30 command on this year’s scouting report in the Tigers prospect list and despite the strong numbers early on (39 K%, 5% BB, 18% SwStr, 0.8 HR/9), I’m not sure if it means the command has improved. You can make a plausible case that it has based on the stats, but poor command guys can have heaters where their sheer dominance and stuff covers the inability to spot the ball where you want. He might not be a starter immediately in the majors (if at all), but he could fit very well in the multi-inning relief stud role that we are seeing utilized more and more this year. With three Triple-A guys and a reliever already in the rotation, the Tigers might turn to Double-A for their next arm when a need arises.

DRAFTKINGS GAME

• I do a few DraftKings games throughout the week and I’ve got a $5 gm setup for Friday if you’re interested: https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/127153871
  • I realize this article came out like 10 minutes before this contest happened, chalk that up to my rearranged schedule… my apologies! 

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Tuesday, May 24th:

• Josiah Gray has allowed 6 HR in his last 3 and gets LAD tonight…
• Jordan Hicks has eclipsed 75 pitches in his L2 starts, can he reach 6 IP v. TOR?
• With Kevin Gausman also pitching, I’m definitely checking out TOR-StL
• Best of luck to those on the Nick Pivetta train (rollercoaster?), I’m watching from the sidelines…
• …and if Pivetta gets rolled, at least we get to check out Dylan Cease’s dope mustache
• The nightcaps are great: Corbin Burnes at Blake Snell & Chris Bassitt at Logan Webb