Boxscore Bits: May 18th, 2022

A few thoughts on the pitchers from Tuesday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Business As Usual: Nothing actionable

• Shane McClanahan, Dylan Cease, Logan Gilbert, Miles Mikolas, Jameson Taillon, Steven Matz, Zach Eflin, Zach Plesac

Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention

• Brady Singer – It was a brilliant spot start for Singer, but he was the extra man for the doubleheader, so he was optioned back out after the game. He has been great in 26.3 across AAA/MLB so he shouldn’t be down too long. I’m not sure I quite understand why Carlos Hernández and his -2% K-BB rate are still in the rotation over Singer, though.
• José Berríos – Maaaan, did Berríos need that! The fact is he’s essentially been 1 up, 1 down, but the bad have been especially so, with his season marks at 4.83 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. There is still major concern about his 8% K-BB rate, though. I’m still having a tough time sitting him anywhere.
• Mike Clevinger – Clev dog has continued to lean on his slider, this time throwing more (28) than his four-seamer (27). He only got a 11% SwStr with the slider and it was 10 called strikes with his 4-seamer that aided his 5 Ks. Five scoreless in just 75 pitches is definitely good, but this still isn’t peak Clev dog.
• Tyler Anderson – Another gem from Anderson, though both runs came via the homer pushing his season rate to 1.5 HR/9. If he keeps his walk rate strong (5% since ’21; 3% this yr) and his hit rate under 9.0 (8.6 this yr), the homers won’t kill him, and he can be a sub-4.00 ERA.
• James Kaprielian – I was most encouraged by just 1 BB in this outing, not that the 5.3 IP/2 ER wasn’t good, too! Kap put up a 4.07 ERA/1.22 WHIP/25% K rate in 119.3 IP last year, use that as your guide for him rest of season. When healthy, he is a strong team streamer in 10s/12s and can even be a consistent part of your 9 P in 15-teamers.
• Cody Poteet – The Marlins had Poteet stretched out and ready to go at least 4 IP in Luzardo’s stead which is why Max Meyer wasn’t called up. That and Meyer has had a couple bumpy outings recently, too. Poteet isn’t bad. His control is inconsistent and will foster some rough outings, but he has a career 24% K/13% SwStr in 51.7 IP as a major leaguer with his capable 3-pitch mix.
• Keegan Thompson – Thompson continues to stretch out, reaching a season-high 65 pitches and looked great against the Pirates. Obviously, the 1.41 ERA will go up, but I think he can be a 3.80-4.50 kind of guy the rest of season.
• Connor Overton – The Overton Window on what qualifies has a good K-BB rate has not shifted enough to make Connor’s 3% mark anything but horrendous. Congrats on the 1.82 ERA/0.89 WHIP through 24.7 IP, but I’m not sure I’d project for anything under 5.00 from here on out.
• Davis Martin – Excellent MLB debut from the 25-year-old righty. He slotted 22nd on the White Sox prospect list, netting a 35+ Future Value grade. This debut was a great outing but it’s not indicative of his true upside. I’ll revisit Martin if he returns in a more substantial role. For now, just remember the name.

Decent Enough: Mostly biz as usual but with some commentary

• Dylan Bundy/Josh Winder – Bundy threw three scoreless coming off the COVID IL and then passed the baton to Winder who got blasted (3.7 IP/9 H/5 ER/1 K). There is room for Winder with Bailey Ober & Chris Paddack on the IL, but they chose him to relieve here which isn’t great, especially since he didn’t pitch well. Ober is on rehab and did allow 4 ER in 5 IP but struck out 7 with 0 walks. You can cut Winder in 12s and lower.
• Tucker Davidson – If he stays in the rotation, I could see Davidson generating some interest.

Duds: The worst of the day

• Merrill Kelly 켈리 – Oof, that’s what the Dodgers can do. I totally understand using him here given how strong he had been to date. Going forward, I think it makes sense to run a no-Coors/no-Dodgers policy with Kelly a la Anthony DeSclafani last year.
• Nathan Eovaldi – Getting blitzed by Houston isn’t terribly surprising and he just got obliterated with 5 HR in the 2nd inning. There were no velo or spin rate changes which is usually where we look first in one of these meltdowns as they can be indicative of health issues. No drops doesn’t mean he’s automatically healthy, but at least this wasn’t accompanied by a 3-4 mph drop in fastball velo or anything. Barring any news to the contrary, I’m not worried here. Just a standard blow-up outing.
• Alex Cobb – It’s Coors… you knew what you were getting into if you started him.
• José Urquidy – 12 H and 1 K in 5 IP doesn’t usually net a win, but when your team scores 13 in the first 4 innings, your cushion is substantial.
• Reid Detmers – I hemmed and hawed on starting Detmers coming off the no-no because of the potential carryover effect and the lack of dominant skills to date as well. In the end, I chose him at TEX over Kaprielian v. MIN thinking the matchup favorability would carry the day.
• Chad Kuhl – Even with this beating, he still has a 3.86 ERA/1.18 WHIP, but when do you really feel comfortable starting him? He gets NYM at home and then a trip to WAS next week. Stay warm.

COMBO MEALS

Shoutout to ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast for coming up with the “combo meal” term when guys get a HR and SB in the same game. Here are Tuesday’s combo meals:

• Jonathan Villar | CHC | 1st HR, 2nd SB
• Tyler Naquin | CIN | 3rd HR, 3rd SB

RELIEVER IN FOCUS WEDNESDAY

Stay in tune with all the closer news with the Bullpen Report and once a week I will highlight someone I’m keeping a close eye.

Alexis Díaz | CIN | 30% K, 16% SwStr, 0.52 ERA, 0.92 WHIP in 17.3 IP

The brother of Edwin Díaz logged his first save on Tuesday and might be angling for that Cincinnati Reds closer role. The 25-year-old righty has a 96-mph fastball and mid-80s slider that yielded a 20% SwStr and 39% K in 42.3 Double-A innings and 16% SwStr and 30% K rate in 17.3 major league innings. He has a walk issue that big bro has never battled through but isn’t new to hard-throwing closers in general. No one has asserted themselves in Cincy’s bullpen so it’s open for the taking.

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Wednesday, May 18th:

• The Max Fried/Corbin Burnes wasn’t amazingggg (they allowed 7 combined ER in 6 IP apiece with 11 Ks), but it was still 2 studs doing their thing!
• I feel like Tyler Mahle/Cal Quantrill could be 2-1 thru 7 or 8-6 in the bottom of the 1st.
• Are we talking enough about Luis Garcia’s start? He has a 2.94 ERA/.95 WHIP/21% K-BB in 33.7 IP and seems to be backing up all of last year’s success.
• Kevin Gausman is full on can’t miss TV.
• I was fading Jordan Hicks-as-SP in draft season, but I decided to take a shot as he popped up on waiver wires. He reached 77 pitches and 5 IP last time out. I’m sitting him at NYM and Max Scherzer, but I knew the price would rise exponentially if he puts up 5 strong at Citi Field and eclipses 80 pitches.
• It’s Shohei Day!
• He doesn’t have the dominance of must-watch gems like Gausman and Ohtani, but I find myself tuning into at least some of every Zack Greinke start. Why do I actually kinda believe he can maintain a mid-3.00s ERA with this 9% K rate?!?!