Bounce Back Candidates According to Steamer
As I so often do, I ran some numbers through the z-score method yesterday. I ran each player’s 2015 numbers through as well as the Steamer rest-of-season projections and compared the results. Given the cumulative nature of fantasy production, I looked at each player’s production, actual and projected, on a per plate appearance basis to get an idea about who the projection system thinks is going to bounce back in the second half.
The guy who easily had the biggest gap between his production to date and his projected production was Yasiel Puig. It was a rough first half for Puig as he lost some time to the DL, and he simply wasn’t very productive when healthy. Steamer projects a return to the top 40 hitters in the second half, which sounds high to be sure. But when you look at what Steamer is actually projecting, it doesn’t seem all that unreasonable.
The main projected improvement is with his batting average. He’s hitting .268 so far this season, but he’s still a .300 hitter for his career. His BABIP this season is 40 points lower than his career BABIP despite the healthiest line drive rate of his career by far. We all know line drive rate is a variable thing, so that could easily regress, and it’s entirely possible his .359 career BABIP is not something he’ll get back to. But the fact that he had the lowest BABIP of his career despite his best line drive rate doesn’t totally compute. Steamer is not projecting a bounce back all the way to .359 in BABIP, and a .328 BABIP seems reasonable.
With his solid plate discipline numbers, a return to an average near .290 hardly seems impossible. He basically provided an average batting average to fantasy owners in the first half, but his second half projection is well above average.
Steamer is also projecting Puig to double his home run total in 30% more plate appearances. It’s unlikely that Puig is ever going to repeat his 21.8 percent HR/FB rate from his rookie season, but his 9.3 percent HR/FB rate this year is below the league average. If you do the math using the Steamer projections, Puig has about 62 more fly balls in him this season. If were to hit them out at a league average rate, he’d hit 6.5 more home runs. Rounding up and assuming he can be a bit better than league average in that respect, eight home runs is an attainable mark.
Steamer also has his speed coming back a bit, projecting five steals from here on out despite the fact that he’s 1-for-3 in steal attempts so far this season. But even if the speed doesn’t come back, the batting average, home runs, and increase in runs and RBI that will come from a full compliment of games would make him far more valuable than he has been to date. I think he’s worth acquiring so long as you can acquire him for a price no higher than that of a borderline top-30 outfielder.
The other names with the biggest gaps between production to date and projected production are guys with stories similar to Puig. Yan Gomes, Victor Martinez, Adrian Beltre, and Jonathan Lucroy all missed time due to injury in the first half and struggled even when they were healthy. And for the most part, the cause of their struggles is similar to Puig’s problems. Every last one of them has a BABIP and HR/FB rate that is a bit lower than their career rates. And with the exception of Gomes, none of them has seen their plate discipline skills to erode to a significant degree. You also can’t blame abnormally bad batted ball profiles for any of their struggles.
The not-that-long story short here is that Steamer supports the classic buy low on these guys. All of the players have returned from injury at this point, and none have acquitted themselves of their struggles with their recent performance. That means the cost to acquire them should remain fairly reasonable. So if you’re making trade offers over the All-Star break, those are some names to consider.
You can find more of Brett's work on TheFantasyFix.com or follow him on Twitter @TheRealTAL.
Just curious how Steamer predicts an uptick in SB for Puig? Is that solely a result of getting on base more or is there something else Steamer is doing?
It’s just them not ruling out all his production prior to this season. While his most recent production and lack of steals is weight more heavily in the projection, his previous seasons still factor into the projection.
Is Corey Dickerson still alive?
Last thing I read is he is running and walking without pain, but when he is in cleats he feels pain.
I own a bunch of shares of him and have been keeping him stashed on my DL, but at this point I’m not sure he makes it back before sometime in August. Even then he could be easily shut down if his injury flares up again. Just sucks for Dickerson and his owners.
Thanks Mike. Agreed on what it means for owners! I’m holding him in my DL too.
In general…what does Puig need to do to get back to his .300/.390/.500 (or better) level of performance? Does he just need to get healthy? Does his luck need to turn around? Or is he doing something now that he wasn’t doing over his first 450 plate appearances that is negatively impacting his current performance?
Do you ever post the results of your z-score method so we can scan through and see the results? Would love to see how this looks.
Although I’m sure I could just go to Steamer ROS projections and sort by wRC+ to give me a proxy for this.
The problem with projecting Puig based on “season” totals is that he has been bad for a lot longer than most people realize. And yes, I said bad. Not just disappointing, but actually bad.
We can split Puig’s major league career neatly in two parts.
Good Puig: From his initial callup through May 31, 2014.
Bad Puig: From June 1, 2014 through today
Good Puig was on the roster for 164 games. He missed 9 of these with minor injuries and routine days off (5.5% of expected games).
Good Puig’s stats in 155 games played:
96 R, 30 HR, 82 RBI, 16 SB, 189-577 .328 BA
Bad Puig took over on June 1st, 2014. He’s been available (not on the DL) for 156 games since that date. Of these he has missed 16 games with minor injuries and routine days off (10.2% of expected games).
Bad Puig’s stats in 140 games played:
77 R, 9 HR, 43 RBI, 7 SB, 140-529 .265 BA
That’s not a couple months of slump. That is half his entire MLB career. And those numbers aren’t even roster worthy in a 10-team mixed league.
Everybody remembers June 2013. Everybody remembers May 2014. Both ridiculous months. But those are a long time ago. Half his career ago. His first “season” worth of games he was a top-5 overall player. But the “season” since then he doesn’t even deserve to be active in mixed leagues.
Good Puig might come back in 2016. Maybe an offseason to get his hammy right, and his head right will reenergize him. But this isn’t a two month slump. It’s a year…
Agreed. It’s been a while since Puig was good, and he wasn’t good for very long. It’s time to back off the hype that suggests he should be one of the best players in the game.
The narrative on buying low on V Mart is completely different. Guy had knee surgery and couldn’t swing from the side of the plate that depended on that knee at the start of the season. Was still crushing the ball (over .400 average) from the other side at the time he went back on the DL to give it the rest it needed.
Since he came back, V Mart has played in 22 games. In those games:
15 R, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 32-95 .337 BA
That’s roughly a full season 100-30-100 pace.
With V Mart you aren’t buying a bounceback on a hope and a prayer like Puig, you’re buying a bounceback that’s already been underway for nearly a month.
Thoughts on Jorge Soler in the second half? He has been one of the biggest busts for fantasy purposes so far, but Eno, Sporer and other fantasy writers have been touting his hard hit % as an indicator better days are ahead. Are you buying a big second half from him or no?
On a lesser scale than V-Mart, Puig, etc? Yes. Soler will not suddenly become an elite level performer this season, but a nice 2nd half would not surprise me one bit.
As you noted, he has been hitting the ball hard when he does make contact, and his Z-Contact rating is actually pretty good….he just needs to lay off of pitches down, out of the zone. For a young player, that is somewhat common. Plate discipline comes with experience. Give Soler time and he will reward you with results. He has shown the ability to really get hot and produce in the minors, so it is in there. It is just a matter of whether or not he can find it at the MLB level this season.
Bounceback starting pitchers?