Big Kid Adds (Week 6)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more of these leagues.

Chase Silseth (9): The 21-year-old righty is not the highest touted pitching prospect, but his AA stats (12.8 K/9, 0.85 WHIP, 1.73 ERA) are intriguing. In his first start, he threw six innings against the A’s allowing no earned runs while striking out four and walking two. He only threw 81 pitches over the six innings, so he might not be fully stretched out. One other factor to consider is that he might be a decent groundball pitcher but he’s only thrown 37 professional innings.

In his debut, he threw four pitches, four-seamer, slider, change (splitter), and sinker. Here are the comps on the first three.

Four-seam fastball

Change/Splitter

Slider

While he didn’t get many swings-and-misses, all three of these pitches should miss bats at an above-average rate. I wasn’t able to dive into him before the weekend and I’m a little disappointed I missed out on the bidding for him.

George Kirby (8): In two starts, his MLB results have been outstanding (0.90 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 7.2 K/9). The only “issue” that seems to be holding him back is the lack of strikeouts so far after facing the Rays and Mets.

His slider (5% SwStr%, 1.111 vOPS) is the major culprit. Historically, similar sliders have performed better, but he might be tipping it in some way.

There is some upside. The more I dig in, I think he could be comparable to Julio Urías and Nathan Eovaldi, hard fastball (~96 mph), low walks, but disappointing strikeouts.

Alek Thomas (8): The 22-year-old Thomas was interesting with projections having him with a .270 AVG with low-teen totals in home runs and stolen bases. Some offensive production comps are J.T. Realmuto and Gleyber Torres, useful but not game-changing.

A couple of items stick out in his profile, one good, one bad.

For the good, pitchers are not throwing him many fastballs (46%, 51% is league average) and he’s thriving (.368/.400/.684, 15% K%). I’ve noticed that struggling rookie bats usually who have extreme fastball rates are struggling (e.g. Jared Kelenic, 44% FB%, 38% K%).

On the downside, Thomas is hitting everything on the ground with a 56% GB% and -2.0 LA. He’s always hit groundballs with a mid-50% minor league groundball rate.

Andrew Velazquez (7): The 27-year-old Velazquez is playing every day (14 of 15) and has 6 SB on the season. That’s enough for fantasy baseball.

In the real baseball world, he’s never been good with a career .534 OPS, 32% K%, and .093 ISO in 276 PA. He’s batting ninth for a reason. Fantasy managers can hope for a few stolen bases knowing that the playing time could dry up at any time.

Eli White (6): Simply…

Brendan Donovan (6): The 25-year-old hit ninth after the Cardinals optioned Paul DeJong (.417 OPS) back to AAA. Donovan’s Steamer600 projection (.257/.329/.391, 13 HR, 10 SB) is just a step below Thomas’s projection (.267/.329/.441, 16 SB, 17 SB).

While he’s hitting great so far (.308/.438/.577, 1 HR), he could struggle and get replaced by Nolan Gorman. Overall, I think Donovan will be a decent corner-infield bench bat, if playing.

Zach Logue (6): He’s interesting. His K%-BB% projection is almost in line with Kirby’s (13.4% vs 13.8%). The issue with Logue is he’s way more hittable.

First, the 26-year-old’s fastball is just at 90-mph. Additionally, most of the contact he allows is in the air (28% GB% in MLB, 36% GB% in AAA). In AAA, he had a 2.8 HR/9 and all the runs he’s allowed in the majors have come from the long ball.

He looks to be a decent streaming option, but be careful of starting him in small parks.

Rafael Ortega (6): I stayed away from Ortega (.670 OPS, 2 SB, 1 HR) when possible. He’s been playing quite a bit because Seiya Suzuki was nursing a bad ankle.

The issue is that when Suzuki came off the IL and Ortega sat. While Ortega did start with Happ getting a break, I’d not be surprised if Ortega only starts against lefties.

Kyle Bradish (5): In his last start, the 25-year-old right shoved against the Cards by striking out 11 batters. In his two starts before that one, he had five total strikeouts and three walks.

He has been changing his pitch by throwing his cutter fewer times (57% to 48%, 7% SwStr%) and his slider more (25% to 36%, 20% SwStr%).

The great start was eye-opening and I think he should be universally rostered to see how his next few starts go.

Ian Kennedy (5): It seems like Mark Melancon is out as the Diamondback’s closer (8.49 ERA, 3.1 K/9, 2.14 WHIP) and Kennedy already filled in as the closer (3 Saves).

On the surface, his profile looks palatable (3.45 ERA) but he hasn’t even been a league-average pitcher (5.7 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 29% GB%, 1.53 WHIP, and 5.37 xFIP). If someone is just needing Saves, he’s a decent option, but he could be a drag in all other categories.

Riley Greene (5): Greene (foot) was cleared to begin baseball activities, so it seemed like a great time to roster him where available.

Rowan Wick (5): Wick (1.32 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 1.39 WHIP, 5 SV) is a one-week closer play with David Robertson (unknown injury, 1.50 ERA, 12.8 K/9, 0.75 WHIP) on the IL.

Félix Bautista (5): Bautista has been a great replacement closer (98 mph fastball, 1.93 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, 2 SV) when Jorge López went on the Bereavement List. I’m not sure if this was a good add.

Lopez is back and has done nothing wrong to lose his job (1.06 ERA, 9.00 K/9, 1.06 WHIP).

Wade Miley (5): I know why he was added, a two-start week with two home games against Pittsburgh and Arizona. I just don’t think Miley is a good enough starter to shut down those two teams.

In his first start off the IL, he allowed three runs in three innings while walking four batters and striking out only one. Additionally, his average fastball velocity was at a career-low 89.7 mph. Finally, his 84 mph cutter didn’t generate a single swinging strike even though he threw it almost half the time.

Vidal Bruján (5): Bruján is back in the majors with Manual Margot on the IL. So far Bruján has started four of five games, two at second, and two in the outfield. This is his second stint and has not been able to hit either time (career .253 OPS in 44 PA).

He was hitting .300/.400/.467 with 6 SB in AAA, so the lure of the stolen bases is real. He’s likely crushing fastball in the minors and MLB pitchers have only thrown him fastballs 36% of the time. He’s having issues making contact with a slider (14% SwStr%) and curve (15% SwStr%). The Rays know his talent will be limited and have him batting in the bottom third of their order. Complete gamble.

William Contreras (5): With Ronald Acuña Jr. out, William Conteras has started three straight, two at DH. He’s been raking with a 1.026 OPS and 4 HR. Travis d’Arnaud has been fine for a catcher (.729 OPS, 3 HR), but it’ll be tough to keep Conteras out of the lineup if he keeps hitting the way he does.

Alex Faedo (5): Faedo’s projected 14.6 K%-BB% is higher than both Kirby and Zach Logue. I like the profile. A 94-mph fastball. What looks to be an elite slider (25% SwStr%, 56% GB%). And a show-me change (11% SwStr%).

While not an elite profile, he looks to be a streaming option, especially since he’s scheduled to face the Rays and the Guardians.

Yonathan Daza (5): Six games in Colorado this week. Easy streamer.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Justin Cmember
1 year ago

I can’t be the only person who doesn’t know what Zimmerman’s tweet about Eli White is trying to say. I’ve read it like 10 times already and haven’t figured it out.

Reuben Walkermember
1 year ago
Reply to  Justin C

Good OBP + going up in the order = 8 adds(?)

LightenUpFGmember
1 year ago
Reply to  Justin C

At this point, I am going to assume that “Simply…” is referring to that Tina Turner song where she sings “Simply the best!” and added him in all leagues. I really hope Zimmerman’s a Tina Turner fan.

Corey2member
1 year ago
Reply to  Justin C

“Simply”=tweet nobody can understand.