Big Kid Adds (Week 26)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with an even larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues.

Batters

Kris Bryant (8): It was a surprise when Bryant came off the IL last week, especially for those fantasy managers who rostered Hunter Goodman. Over the homestand, Bryant hit .233/.281/.467 with 2 HR while starting in six of seven games. I figured a lower total with his injury history since he just had a fractured finger and still might be feeling the effects of plantar fasciitis.

While I might be hesitant to start him this week on the road (Padres and Cubs), he might be worth a stash for next week when he has seven home games against the Dodgers and Twins who both might be not giving 100% because they’ve qualified for the playoffs.

Ceddanne Rafaela (7): The projections love Rafaela’s balance profile of power, speed, and batting average (Steamer 600 ROS projections).

When he was first called up, he wasn’t playing but now has started in eight of nine games while leading off in seven of them. So far, he has hit .296/.321/.500 with 2 HR and 1 SB in 56 PA.

Most likely he’s a must-roster and I expect his hype train to grow during the offseason.

Wilyer Abreu (5): Abreu is in the same boat as Rafaela, talented but needing a lineup spot. Abreu’s projection has more power and less speed compared to Rafaela.

Abreu is also hitting in the majors (.364/.435/.509, 1 HR, 3 SB) but only starting against righties (only one lefty remaining on the schedule).

Decent talent to play out the season.

Henry Davis (4): Davis came off the IL and in these deeper two-catcher formats, he becomes a must roster. So far this season, Davis is hitting .205/.296/.326 with 5 HR and 3 SB in 216 PA.

While useful this season, the 23-year-old will lose catcher eligibility next season and I’m not sure he is even rosterable in all but the deepest of redraft leagues.

Luis García (4): After being demoted by the Nationals to AAA for over a month, Garcia is back in the majors on the strong side of a platoon. He might jsut be a platoon bat with a career 60 wRC+ against lefties but a 90 wRC+ against righties.

While Garcia has shown below-average but balanced skills (8 HR, 9 SB, .254 AVG), the 23-year-old doesn’t seem to have improved. His groundball rate is up to 60% and a 50% Pull%. Pulled groundballs aren’t productive.

Starters

Sawyer Gipson-Long (9): It was going to be tough to ignore the 25-year-old after he posted 16 K in just 10 IP (14.4 K/9). After reading up on him, his stock seems to have taken off when he added a tick or two to all his pitches.

With a league-average fastball, his secondary pitches are easily plus so far based on their results in AAA and the majors.

It’s tough to know if he struggled in AAA with his command under the robo umps (3.6 BB/9) but he’s been fine in the majors (2.7 BB/9, 2.2 equivalent BB/9 based on a 33.5% Ball%)

The one issue that has to be addressed is how long he’s allowed to throw into a game. In his first start, it was 5 IP, 19 batters, and 73 pitches. With the second start, it was 5 IP, 20 batters, and 82 pitches. I see a trend.

He’ll be an interesting arm to dissect over the winter.

John Means (7): So far, he has a 3.60 ERA with a 7.24 xFIP with more walks than strikeouts. Also, he has allowed as many home runs as strikeouts generated. All of his pitches are performing below average with his changeup doing the best (10% SwStr%). When he was productive back in 2020 and 2021, his fastball velocity was in 93 mph to 94 mph range, but right now it sits around 91 mph.

I expected him to improve, but I’m not going to count on it over the last two weeks of the season.

Joey Lucchesi (6): Managers must be hoping for Lucchesi to pull off a Win against the Marlins in two shots to end the season. In seven starts, he has a 2.83 ERA (4.76 xFIP, 83% LOB%), 1.26 WHIP (.262 BABIP), and 6.2 K/9.

I’m not putting my season on the line with a 90-mph fastball with a 7.6% K%-BB% (ranks 184 of 208 starters with 30 IP).

I’d take my chances with a middle reliever.

Adrian Houser (6): Houser’s demand came from a potential two-step this week against the Cardinals and Marlins but a change in the rotation now has him with one start against the Cardinals and a possible two-step in the final week against the Cardinals (again) and Cubs.

Houser is a perfect arm to target for these streams with a 7.7 K/9, 4.53 ERA (4.30 xFIP), and 1.46 WHIP (.336 BABIP). Using him to get a possible Win or two and then move on.

Shane Bieber (6): It’s not clear if/when Bieber will make a start for the Guardians, but all the signs point to later this week or early next week. Bieber is trying to return from the IL and here is the latest news.

Bieber, who began his rehab assignment on Tuesday with Double-A Akron, gave up two runs (one earned) in 3 2/3 innings. He did not allow a hit, walked one batter, hit two and struck out four.

The right-hander made his second rehab start for Triple-A Columbus on Sunday, striking out seven over 3 2/3 scoreless innings. Bieber did not allow a hit, but walked three. Guardians manager Terry Francona said that Bieber traveled with the team to Kansas City, and will throw a side session Tuesday. Francona said he hopes to “slot him in [the rotation] hopefully a couple days later” if the throwing session goes well.

In his rehab stars, he was sitting around 91 mph (Justin Lada of The News-Herald) that’s lower than any time so far in the majors.

Bieber struck out seven and walked three in 3 2/3 no-hit innings on Sept. 17. He averaged 90-92 with his fastball and got Toledo hitters to swing and miss 11 times on 64 pitches.

Additionally, he has only lasted 3.2 IP in both rehab starts so the chance of a Win is slim.

If there was more than two weeks left in the season, I’d target him to see if there is any upside but I’m passing for now.

Ken Waldichuk (4): Waldichuk falls into the Houser camp of a below-average pitcher (5.40 ERA, 5.10 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, 8.5 K/9) with two decent upcoming matchups (vs DET, @LAA).

José Butto (4): Butto walks everyone (5.3 BB/9 in majors, 4.9 BB/9 in AAA) so he’ll kill a manager’s WHIP. He threw that profile out the window in his first start in a two-step week with 6 IP, 6 K, 1 ER, and just 1 BB against the Marlins.

So far, he has found a way to miss bats with ah his change (20% SwStr%) and cutter (19% SwStr%).

For now, he’ll face the Phillies this weekend.

Relievers

Julian Merryweather (6): With Albert Alzolay on the IL, Merryweather is now the Cubs closer. On the season, Merryweather has been great with a 3.09 ERA, 12.2 K/9 and 1.24 WHIP.