Big Kid Adds (Week 25)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with an even larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues.

Batters

Jordan Lawlar (8): The promotion of 20-year-old Lawlar might be too late to have any impact. Over 490 PA between AA and AAA, he hit .278/.378/.496 with 20 HR and 36 SB. In the minors, his strikeout rate was at 25% but is up to 50% in the majors (14 PA). He’s struggling with sliders (39% SwStr%) and four-seamers (20% SwStr%) and his .220 OPS point to a hitter still trying to find his way.

And when he’s made contact, it has been weak (80.5 maxEV) and on the ground (5 GB of 6 batted balls). For now, I just see him as a bench bat with the hope he’ll adjust but can he do it in less then three weeks.

Evan Carter (7): The 21-year-old cruised through three minor league levels (Rookie, AA, AAA) hitting for a combined .288/.413/.450 with 13 HR and 26 SB. So far, he seems to be on the strong side of a left-field platoon with Ezequiel Duran while batting ninth. I don’t see Carter facing many lefties after he struggled against them in the minors.

He has one extra-base hit all season against left-handed pitchers, whom he’s faced 95 times. And he’s not exactly being brought into a situation that will allow him to ease quietly into the big-league experience.

The team doesn’t feature him and it seems like he’ll likely head to the bench when Adolis García returns from the IL (I couldn’t find any updates on Garcia’s status).

Unlike Lawlar, Carter is holding his own so far with 1 HR, 1 SB, and a 1.083 OPS (33% K%).

Aaron Hicks (5): Hicks is off the IL and started in seven of eight games. After struggling with the Yankees (.524 OPS), he has been productively balanced with the Orioles hitting .296/.385/.475 with 7 HR and 3 SB in 162 PA. A solid add.

Luis Campusano (4): With Gary Sánchez (wrist) out for the season, Campusano is getting a full run as San Diego’s catcher (four straight starts since the injury). In 92 PA over three seasons before 2023, he hit .188/.239/.271 with 2 HR. In just 136 PA this season, the catcher has been great (.299/.338/.457, 13% K%, with 5 HR)

I’m sure the Sanchez managers were the first to target Campusano, but he’s likely an upgrade at catcher for many teams.

Elehuris Montero (4): First, the Rockies will be home all week, so the entire team will be in demand for fantasy managers streaming their hitters. Monterio is the only one available and showing some signs of life. In AAA this year, he reworked his swing. Before the change, he was hitting .198/.223/.321 with 2 HR (106 PA). Since returning this last time in late July, he is hitting .291/.363/.482 with 4 HR (110 PA).

The biggest issue with Montro is the unexpected return of Kris Bryant. Montero, Bryant, and Hunter Goodman can only play first base or be the DH, so one will need to sit every game. I’m not sure if he can be kept for road starts, but a fine home streamer if playing.

Edward Olivares (4): I was a little surprised to see Olivares added since the Royals outfield is a jumbled mess right now. Here are all their current options:

The deal is that Olivares isn’t considered to be a capable outfielder (-7 OAA), he has only been the DH in five of seven games since returning from AAA.

He has a balanced approach by hitting .260/.310/.447 with 10 HR and 9 SB in 329 PA.

Matt Vierling (4): I’m not sure if Vierling is the most added or dropped player over the course of the season, but he has got to be close. Vierling has some plus tools (high maxEV, top Sprint Speed) but he has struggled to translate them into elite production. So far this season, the 26-year-old is hitting .270/.329/.380 with 8 HR and 5 SB (6 CS) in 445 PA.

The other issue is that he’s struggling in the second half. In the first half, he posted a .763 OPS but it is down to .634 in the second half. The team has noticed the struggles and he has started in only six of the last 10 games splitting time between third base and the outfield.

Starters

Gavin Stone (6): Late on Sunday, news came out that Stone was starting against the Padres on Monday instead of Kershaw. In 18 IP going into the game, Stone had a 10.50 ERA (5.85 xFIP), 5.0 K/9, and 2.28 WHIP. I know Stone is a top prospect on a great team, but he had shown no signs of being ready for the majors. And it showed in his spot start.

Over 5 IP, he allowed 7 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, and just 2 K. It’s tough to add to a 10.50 ERA but he found a way (10.80 ERA).

At this point, I’m not sure if he should be drafted in ’24 because he needs to strike out more batters while drastically lowering his walk and home run rate.

Pedro Avila (5): Since joining the rotation in late August, Avila had struggled with walks (6.4 BB/9) while not striking out many batters (6.4 K/9) but had a nice 3.86 ERA. He was scheduled for a two-step against the Dodgers and Athletics. The first start went as expected, horrible.

He didn’t even make it three innings while allowing seven earned runs with just six hits but three walks. Hopefully, he will perform better against Oakland if he makes the second start.

Colin Rea (5): The next two weeks are projected to be nice for Rea. This week he faces Miami and next week he faces St. Louis and Miami.

A home run problem (1.8 HR/9, 5.12 FIP) has his ERA over 5.00 but his other ERA estimators are in the low to mid-4.00’s. Also, his 13.7 K%-BB% is comparable to Justin Verlander (14.0%) and Sandy Alcantara (13.5%).

While Rea is not someone who you keep on a roster, this little three-game sample stood out as a nice end-of-season volume play.

Kyle Wright (4): Kyle Wright was horrible before going on the IL for a shoulder strain (5.79 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 1.77 WHIP, 4.12 xFIP), so I was surprised to see he was nearly 100% rostered and 50% started in the NFBC Main Events.

In his Monday start, he lasted only 3 IP while allowing 6 ER, 6 HR, and 2 BB with only 3 K.

The velocity on his four-seamer was down 0.5 mph from this season’s average. His sinker was down 0.2 mph. Both were down almost 1.5 mph from his 2022 breakout and near the levels when he struggled before ’22 (6.56 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over three seasons).

Fantasy managers need to just stay away until he gets his walks under control and velocity back up.

Triston McKenzie (4): Reports are out that McKenzie could be joining the team soon. Here is the actual quote:

Guardians manager Terry Francona revealed that Sept. 20 is the target date for RHP Shane Bieber and RHP Triston McKenzie to be activated from the 60-day injured list.

Bieber, the 2020 AL Cy Young winner, has not pitched since July 9 because of right elbow inflammation, while McKenzie sprained his right elbow on June 10.

Francona said both will face live hitters later this week at Class A Lake County, then begin minor-league rehab assignments. Once Bieber and McKenzie are capable of throwing 85 pitches, they will be activated.

There are two conflicting quotes. One is that he could be coming next week AND need to be able to hit 85 pitches. He is just starting to face live hitters and hasn’t yet begun a rehab assignment. How is going to be up to 85 pitches?

Of the pitchers profiled, I might be the most interested in him than everyone else profiled if he can get back.

Relievers

Tyler Kinley (4): Just recently, Kinley was anointed the closer. He might not have the job much longer after he blew a Save last night and raised his ERA to 7.20.