Big Kid Adds (Week 23)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and there are ten of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Dylan Crews (10): Almost everyone covered Crews’s promotion, so I’ll limit my thoughts to two observations. First, he has a 50% GB% and it would be nice to see a few more balls in the air. Also, while he only has a 19% K%, he’s struggling against secondary pitches (slider, curve, change, splitter). He has at least a 20% SwStr% against each one.

Kyle Manzardo (8): Manzardo got recalled to the majors after destroying AAA (.267/.398/.548 with 20 HR). After struggling his first time up (.571 OPS), he has been on fire this time (.1.352 OPS).

Playing time hasn’t been an issue as he has started in every game (all vs RHP) while hitting sixth. For those managers needing power, he’s a must roster.

Jordan Walker (8): Another callup for a once struggling prospect. Let’s start here. In 565 career PA, the 22-year-old is hitting .259/.324/.416 with 17 HR and 8 SB. Not great but not horrible. The problem is that this season in 100 PA, he’s hitting just .178/.240/.278.

He’s doing nothing:

• 30% K%
• .100 ISO
• 1 HR
• 1 SB

Pitchers are feeding him a steady diet of secondary pitches with all having at least a 17% SwStr% against him with the highest being against curves (28%). At least he had the four-for-five game on his September callup because he hasn’t been on base since then.

Hopefully, he continues to get full-time at-bats and everyone can get a better idea of his talent level before next season.

Anthony Rizzo (5): He’s back until he’s hurt again. In the four games since returning, he’s started in three of them. In the one game he sat, it was against a lefty. For his career, Rizzo’s had a 62-point OPS split which was not an issue when he was one of the league’s top hitters. As his talent has declined, the split is now in play with a .679 OPS versus  .485 OPS difference this season.

Coby Mayo (5): The 22-year-old is just not ready for the majors yet with a 48% K% and .000 ISO. And with three weeks left in the season, fantasy managers don’t have time for him to figure it out. Drop with intent.

Nick Gonzales (5): Since returning from the IL, he’s started every game while hitting in the top half of the lineup. For the season, he’s hitting .264/.296/.385 with 5 HR and 4 SB. While not elite, he’s a bench streamer.

Zach McKinstry (5): McKinstry’s demand comes from being qualified at four positions (2B, SS, 3B, OF), semi-regular playing time (seven starts in the last 10 games), and the ability to steal some bases (14 SB in 279 PA). He will be a batting average drag with a career .222 AVG in 1161 plate appearances.

Starters

Rhett Lowder (7): In his first major league start, Lowder lasted 4 IP (77 pitches) with 6 K, 4 BB, and 1 ER. He attacked hitters with a four-pitch mix of a four-seamer, sinker, slider, and change. Little is known about his pitch results since he only threw 6 IP in AAA and the 4 IP in the majors. TheBot hates his four-seamer (20) but thinks the other three are plus (58 or higher). Stuff+ agrees with the assessment.

My system looks at pitches with similar shapes, loves the fastball (anything under 4.00 is good for fastball).

The STUPH models might not have liked the location (i.e. too much of the plate).

Besides his pitches having decent grades, his 39% Ball% points to a 3.9 BB/9, not the 9.0 BB/9 from his start.

Overall, I like the profile for 2025. For this season, he’ll need to get the walks under control and hopefully throw more than 80 pitches in a start to get a Win. I’m afraid that by the time we get a good idea of his possible talent, the season will be over.

Zack Littell (7): While having a decent season (4.04 ERA, 4.21 xFIP, 1.35 WHIP, 8.0 K/9), he struggled in his return from the IL (4ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 4 IP).  The lack of control is a huge red flag with his Zone% down to 47% with his season average being 54%. Until he gets the walks under control, he can’t be started.

Patrick Corbin (6): Every time Corbin signs of life, all I can think of is …

I’ll try to go in with an open mind and see if he’s worth the add.

First, it was an ideal two-start week against Miami (5.2 IP, 8 K, 3 BB, 2 ER, 1 W) and Pittsburgh. Even with two cupcakes on the schedule, the Razzball weekly projections (4.54 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) valued him at -$13.5.

The disconnect is from the five starts before this week’s matchups where Corbin had a 3.76 ERA (3.89 xFIP), 8.2 K/9, and 1.41 WHIP. While not ace-level production, his 13.4% K%-BB% is similar to Gavin Stone, Colin Rea, and Brayan Bello. If someone believed this was Corbin’s talent level, he was worth starting.

Corbin has improved from the season’s start with an 8.1% K%-BB% in the first half and 15.8% K%-BB% in the second half. All of the gains have come from a better strikeout rate (16% to 23%) with the introduction of a cutter (11% SwStr%) that he is throwing instead of a sinker (4% SwStr%). The strikeout bump happened right after he introduced the cutter.

The improved strikeout rate doesn’t make him an ace or even a bench streamer but it does help Corbin become a waiver wire streamer (~4.25 ERA talent) in these ideal situations. Or it could just be a trap.

J.T. Ginn (6): Over 14 IP (4 G, 2 GS), the 25-year-old had been solid with a 9.2 K/9, 1.02 WHIP, 57% GB% and 4.30 ERA (3.51 xFIP). He attacked hitters with a sinker-slider combo with the occasional changeup. Each of the pitches has gotten good results.

Pitch: SwStr%, GB%, Usage
Sinker (93.5 mph): 8%, 58%, 53%
Slider: 19%, 50%, 33%
Changeup: 21%, 67%, 11%

That is a solid pitch mix

While he wasn’t throwing many pitches to start in the majors, he’s slowly increased his total from 31 to 29 to 67 to 88. The only issue I can see is that the walks could come down (3.1 BB/9, 36% Ball%) especially after struggling with them last season (5.4 BB/9). Nice add for 2024 and beyond.

Tylor Megill (5): With Megill, a manager will get a ton of strikeouts (10.2 K/9) and a ton of hard-hit balls. His 43.3% HardHit% is the 34th highest value of 296 pitchers with at least 50 IP.