Big Kid Adds (Week 2)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Note: Managers drafted and are holding every starter with a pulse hoping for a breakout. None are on the wire. On the other hand, they have short benches and are streaming/grinding hitters going with the hot hand.

Batters

Kyren Paris (11): While 23-year-old Paris is on a hot streak (.444/.545/.889, 2 HR, 1 SB .545 BABIP) and playing with Moncada on the IL, I wouldn’t break the bank on him. One manager spent $126 on him, but I was at or below the low bid of $11 in the two high-stake leagues I’m in. I don’t think Paris will be in the majors long, especially since he’s failed at it twice. His issue is too much swing-and-miss. While he has a 23% K% (31% for his MLB career), he has an 18.5% SwStr% this season which usually equates to a 37% K%. In the minors last year, he posted a 35% K%.

Additionally, his Steamer600 comps are not encouraging.

I’ve heard of a couple of these guys, but players projected for sub-.630 OPS usually aren’t major leagues. Stream but move on quickly.

Jake Mangum (9) and Kameron Misner (6): The pair are starting most of the time and are not embarrassing themselves. The 27-year-old Misner has a .985 OPS and the 29-year-old Mangum has a .980 OPS. It’s surprising to see both “breakout” after their 27th birthday.

They are both hitting and playing; therefore, they deserve to be added, but don’t waste any resources on them. They had no preseason demand with Misner being drafted in two of the 342 NFBC*, 750 player draft-and-hold leagues. Mangum was only drafted in one.

Fine streamers and again, don’t overspend.

Trent Grisham (8): A hot three days (6 for 13 with 3 HR) has the 28-year-old Grisham cycling through the Yankees lineup. For Grisham to play one of Judge, Bellinger, Dominguez, Rice, or Goldschmidt must sit. The obvious candidate is Rice, but he’s also on fire (.333/.471/.704, 2 HR, 2 SB). Add Grisham during this hot streak, but be ready to move on if the playing time dries up.

Carson Kelly (7): Starting about half the time for the Cubs (six starts in 13 games) and great at the plate (.389/.538/.889, 27% BB%, 2 HR). Decent add for teams needing a catcher.

Dylan Moore (7): He filled in for Jorge Polanco at third base and has been hitting (2 HR, 2 SB, 1.147 OPS). As normal, all the damage is coming against lefties (1.571 OPS vs LHP, .664 vs RHP). Even if Moore keeps his job, he’s only scheduled to face one lefty starter this week.

Dillon Dingler (6): Started in four of ten games while hitting .316/.350/.579 and will play more now that Jake Rogers is on the IL.

Pedro Pagés (6): With Herrera on the IL, Pagés will be the starting catcher for the Cardinals.

Alek Thomas (6): With Jake McCarthy struggling (.000/.080/.000 in 25 PA), Thomas (.963 OPS) is stealing some playing time with five starts in the last eight games.

Gabriel Arias (6): I was surprised there wasn’t more love for Arias during draft-and-hold season. NFBC Mangers only drafted him in 142 of 342 leagues with a rank of 748. On the other hand Juan Brito was taken 301 leagues (rank of 600) and Travis Bazzana in 256 leagues (rank of 676). Arias and Brito had similar projections (.689 OPS vs .682 OPS) with Bazzana below them (.522 OPS). The free-swinging 25-year-old Arias had worn out his welcome with a 32% K% and .214 AVG. His Steamer600 projection included some guys being drafted well ahead of him, so there was a chance of him sticking.

I would have rather added Arias over Paris if the position was not important.

Mike Yastrzemski (6): Yastrzemski only faces righties and the Giants are scheduled to face two this week. I guess the 1 HR, 2 SB, and .333 AVG are too shiny.

Enrique Hernández (6): He stepped in for Freeman at first base with seven straight starts but is struggling at the plate (.478 OPS).

Wilmer Flores (5): Started nine of the first ten games with a .250 AVG and 4 HR.

Tim Tawa (5): Ranked 1073 and only drafted in 10 of the 324 NFBC draft-and-holds, so few people saw him as a contributor. Maybe more should have with his Steamer600 comps similar to Arias’s

Since being promoted to replace the injured Marte, he started in two games of three games while hitting ninth.

Trey Sweeney (5): Strong-side platoon bat with four righties on the schedule with at least three on the weekend. A warm body who plays most of the time.

Kyle Stowers (5): A strong-side platoon bat hitting (.258/.410/.355, 1 HR, 1 SB). Only four righties on the schedule this week.

Harrison Bader (5): Started in seven of ten games while hitting a .296 AVG with 3 HR. Did start against the one lefty the team faced.

Zach McKinstry (5): Started in seven games, qualified at short, third, and outfield, and hitting .321/.441/.393 (18% BB%).

Starters

Landon Knack (9): Promoted to start in the place of Blake Snell. Knack is a solid starter with a 9.1 K/9, 1.08 WHIP, and 3.55 ERA (4.13 xFIP) in 70 major league innings. His average fastball velocity is up 0.7 mph this year. There are no changes to his pitch mix. A solid option for fantasy teams who have been hit by injuries.

Michael Lorenzen (8): In 11 IP, Lorenzen has been solid with a 3.18 ERA (3.80 xFIP), 1.15 WHIP, and 7.9 K/9. He’s still throwing six pitches between 26% and 6%.

Ben Lively 라이블리 (6): Lively comes into a workable two-step versus the White Sox and Royals. The only issue is that he has a career 4.59 ERA (4.85 xFIP). The games could be a ratio nightmare, especially since his fastball velocity is down to 89 mph. The lower velocity can’t help his home run issues.

Season: HR/9
2022: 2.0
2023: 1.4
2024: 1.9
Career: 1.5

Complete gamble.

Taijuan Walker (6): With Suarez on the IL, Walker gets another shot at the rotation. The biggest key for him this season is his fastball velocity being up 1.4 mph. His STUPH grades aren’t a fan with a 5.54 botERA and 90 Pitching+. Each of his four secondaries posted between a 13% and 25% SwStr%. None of his fastballs generated a single swing-and-miss.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle (7): Got Detroit’s last Save while remaining productive (0.00 ERA, 9.0 K/9). It’s unknown how many of the team’s Saves he should get.

Dennis Santana (5): Got Pittsburgh’s last Save while remaining productive (3.38 ERA, 5.1 K/9). It’s unknown how many of the team’s Saves he should get.

* I spent some time examining players barely drafted in the NFBC draft-and-hold who became positive fantasy contributors. Not many. The diehard drafters spent most of the offseason digging through these late-round picks and found nothing making these guys worth rostering. Why not leverage their research to help me evaluate players?