Big Kid Adds (Week 19)

Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Kyle Karros (11): The further I got into my FAAB last Sunday, the more I started liking the 23-year-old third baseman. Here are his Steamer600 comps.

If given full-time plate appearances, all the players listed can be 15-team contributors.

Karros’s main trait is putting the ball in play and should post a decent batting average with the possibility of double-digit stolen bases and home runs over a full season. The home runs could even increase if he were to keep the ball off the ground (47% GB%).

C.J. Kayfus (8): Eight starts in 10 games since being promoted, while being a solid hitter (.258/.303/.452, 1 HR, 1 SB). He is struggling to make contact (30% K%), especially with normal four-seam fastballs (16% SwStr%). Of the 555 batters who have seen 25 or more four-seamers this season, it’s the 41st highest value.

JJ Bleday (8):  A .588 BABIP since his last callup makes him seem like he’s on fire (.444/.483/.741). The problem is that he started in just six of the last 10 games. He is a 20 HR hitter, while not stealing bases and dragging down a team’s batting average.

Blaze Alexander (7): Playing (14 straight starts), hitting (.264/.362/.462, 4 HR 2 SB in 91 PA), and has seven games this week with four in Colorado.

Romy Gonzalez (6): I was a little surprised to see Gonzalez on the list of adds with no lefties on the schedule. So far this week, he started against two righties, going three for eight (all singles). To be fantasy relevant, he needs to be on the field.

Brooks Baldwin (6): Baldwin is off the IL and playing (10 starts in 11 games). While not hitting for batting average (.222), he does have 7 HR and 4 SB. He makes a nice injury replacement since he’s qualified at outfield, second, third, and short.

Mike Yastrzemski (5): Strong-side platoon bat who faces five righties this week. So far with the Royals, he’s batting .188/.300/.469 with 2 HR.

Gabriel Arias (5): Back to starting with the Guardians (13 straight starts). While a .236 AVG (32% K%) is a bit of a drain, he does have 9 HR and 4 SB in 342 PA. Additionally, he’s qualified at three positions (2B, SS, 3B).

Darell Hernaiz (5): Starting while Jacob Wilson is on the IL (possibly returning next week). While struggling with a .190 BABIP, he does have 2 HR and 1 SB in 56 PA. He’s not overmatched with a 7% K% (5% SwStr%). He might be trading weak contact (52% GB%, 34% HardHit%) for the contact.

Victor Robles (5): Robles is on his way back from the IL (shoulder). My worry with Robles is that he might end up on the short side of a platoon with Dominic Canzone.

Name: Career OPS vs LHP, vs RHP
Robles: .722, .675
Canzone: .495, .732

Additionally, Canzone has been solid with a 125 wRC+ while Robles sported a 76 wRC+ before going on the IL.

Curtis Mead (5): The #9 hitter for the White Sox. With a career 81 wRC+. Who might reach double-digit steals and home runs in a full season? What does he do?

Starters

Cade Cavalli (11): Every part of his profile (8.7 K/9, 53% GB%, 3.86 ERA, 3.93 xFIP) looks great except the walks (3.9 BB/9). The walks have him with a 1.50 WHIP, which is doing as much ratio damage in a roto league as a 5.52 ERA. His 38% Ball% is the equivalent of a 4.0 BB/9. He’s always had issues with walks with a 4.4 BB/9 throughout the minors.

Cavalli is a fine addition in point leagues or for teams that don’t care about their WHIP.

Luis Gil (10): Like Cavalli, Gil struggles with walks (career 4.8 BB/9), and there are no signs of them improving this year (5.2 BB/9, 38% Ball% for equiv 4.0 B/9). If Gil hadn’t run a .237 BABIP last season, he’s likely not on anyone’s radar. In the second half, when he posted just a .262 BABIP, he had an unremarkable 1.42 WHIP and 4.20 ERA. In two starts this year, it’s a 7.27 ERA (4.63 xFIP) and 1.85 WHIP.

Additionally, his results could even get worse if his home runs regress upward. Normally, pitchers with a 35% GB% (career) have a 1.4 HR/9, not the 1.1 HR/9 that Gil has posted.

Hurston Waldrep (10): Finally, a pitcher I can get behind. The 1.54 ERA won’t last (0.0 HR/9, .226 BABIP, 80% LOB%), but so far he looks to be a high-3.00 ERA talent.

He’s got two amazing pitches. A splitter with a 27% SwStr% (STUPH models are off the charts) and a sinker with an 11% SwStr% and 50% GB%.

Shane Smith (6): Without a cupcake schedule, I was surprised to see the Shane Smith love. He’s been fine this year with a 4.01 ERA (4.41 xFIP), 1.28 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9. But just 3 Wins in 21 starts. There are worse options.

Troy Melton (6): Speculation came out late during the weekend that Melton might return to the rotation and start on Wednesday. He did start going 5 IP with 0 ER and 6 K. The only question now is if he’ll stay in the rotation or go back to the bullpen. As a starter this season, he posted a 3.18 ERA (3.04 xFIP), 9.5 K/9, and 0.88 WHIP.

Jason Alexander (6):  While a solid starter (2.83 ERA, 4.15 xFIP, 1.19 WHIP, 6.9 K/9), he could be losing his rotation spot with Luis Garcia and Cristian Javier coming off the IL.

Brandon Walter (5): On the IL with an elbow injury. He was great in his nine starts (3.35 ERA, 3.09 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9)

Relievers

Justin Topa (7): While Topa isn’t the most talented reliever (3.50 ERA to 3.75 ERA talent), every sign points to him being the Twins closer.

Riley O’Brien (7): The 30-year-old righty was added in the hope JoJo Romero can’t hold the closer’s job. The deal is, Romero and O’Brien have posted similar stats this season.

Name: ERA, xFIP, K%
O’Brien: 1.69, 3.68, 23%
Romero: 2.36, 3.96, 23%

David Bednar (5): Was a good closer, then became a good setup man, and now he’s a good closer again.