Big Kid Adds (Week 19)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and there are ten of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Note: Sorry about not publishing this article last week but the ramifications from the trade deadline took priority.

Batters

Miguel Vargas (10): With the White Sox, he has hit first or second with a .503 OPS in 30 PA. I’m just not sure Vargas is a major league hitter. In 464 career PA across three seasons he has 12 HR and 5 SB while hitting .195/.290/.358. His projections show more love with several comps being useful in deeper leagues if given full-time at-bats.

Some power, speed, and on-base skills but likely a drag in a batting average league.

Coby Mayo (9): The 22-year-old is a top-20 prospect who might have been forced to the majors early with the Jordan Westburg injury. In AAA, Mayo had 20 HR and 4 SB while hitting .301/.375/.586. The one blemish is his hit grades. Here they are from various scouting services:

Service: Hit Grade (current/future)
FanGraphs: 35/45
MLB: 45
Baseball America: 50
BaseballHQ: 3 of 5

So the hope was for an average to below-average bat. In 12 PA so far, he’s struggling with a 50% K% and pitchers not throwing him fastballs (33% FB%). He’s seeing sliders (27% SwStr%) half the time. He’s not doing any better against non-slider secondaries with a 55% SwStr% against them.

With Baltimore trying to win baseball games, they don’t have time for Mayo to work things out in the majors. The Orioles only gave Jackson Holliday 36 PA before demoting him earlier in the season. Ramón Urías might start stealing at-bats soon.

Victor Scott II (8): I wasn’t interested in Scott being called up because the Cardinals outfield was solid with Tommy Pham, Lars Nootbaar, and Alec Burleson. My mind has changed.

As I noted in my latest Mining the News, Scott has a more powerful swing.

Scott, 23, changed to an exaggerated leg kick at the plate in recent weeks, and the results have been eye-opening for both him and the MLB parent club. The Cardinals were impressed enough to bring Scott back to the big leagues on Sunday to man center field for the next several weeks with Gold Glove candidate Michael Siani out after straining an oblique muscle in his right side.

The other item is that Scott is playing more than I expected with the last two starts in center field. I’m unsure if the Cardinals believe in the swing changes or don’t trust the other outfielders in center field, but Scott is playing.

Whit Merrifield (8): In leagues where I needed steals, Merrifield was an obvious add. While he’s struggling with the bat this year (.582 OPS) he is providing stolen bases (13 SB in 194 PA). Additionally, he has started in six straight games at second base for the Braves with
Ozzie Albies on the IL.

Jackson Holliday (6): Holliday is performing better this time in the majors with a 1.378 OPS in 23 PA. The big key is that he doesn’t seem overmatched with just a 26% K% compared to 50% last time. All of his gains are contact-related with his Contact% jumping from 59% to 73%.

Joey Loperfido (5): Since being traded to the Blue Jays, he has hit second in five straight games with a 48% K%. Loperfido has to find a way to make contact. On the season, he has a 38% K% in 141 PA. Of the 407 batters with at least 100 PA this season, it’s the fifth-highest value.

Mitch Haniger (5): I have no idea why someone with 11 HR, 0 SB, and a .207 AVG is being added. It’s possible that he hit a home run on Friday and Saturday and “HE’S BACK” like it’s 2021 all over again.

Jonah Bride (5): With the Marlins trading everyone away, they now have Bride batting third or fourth. He has been decent with 3 HR and a .273 AVG in 77 PA. His .803 OPS this season is a major step forward compared to his career .585 OPS. Just this week, Bride passed the 10-game threshold at third base so he should be dual-position qualified (also first base) in most leagues.

Geraldo Perdomo (5): I’m guessing these adds were based on Perdomo being the best available middle infield option. On the season, he’s shown little speed (3 SB) and power (1 HR), but a decent .275 AVG in 194 PA.

Starters

Jeffrey Springs (10): With Springs being undrafted, this was the first opportunity for teams to roster him in the NFBC. While Springs should be added in all leagues with the hope he regains his 2022 production (9.6 K/9, 2.46 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), he doesn’t seem close to his previous talent level.

First off, his fastball velocity is down to 90.2 mph. The lowest he’s ever been in a season was 91.3 in 2018. We have no idea of his production level at this low velocity. Second, he has no command of his pitches at this point with a 39% Zone% (career 50.6% Zone%) along with a 4.2 BB/9. His 39% Ball% points to a 3.9 BB/9. No velocity and no command lead to a 5% K%-BB% in 9 IP. Finally, he’s not going far into games with 3.2 IP (76 pitches) and 5 IP (87 pitches) in his two MLB starts. These limitations have Springs with a 6.23 ERA, 6.2 K/9, and 1.85 WHIP.

For these reasons, I prioritized other starters (e.g. David Festa and Hayden Birdsong) over Springs. I’m not sure if Springs is startable until he puts together a couple of good starts and by that point, the season might be over or he could be shut down.

Paul Blackburn (9): Blackburn’s first start with the Mets went great with 6 K, 2 BB, and 1 ER over 6 IP. The 30-year-old leaned into his cutter (20% to 27% usage) and cut down on his four-seamer (21% to 12%) and curve (10% to 2%). These moves were the low-hanging fruit with his cutter missing the most bats of the three.

Pitch: SwStr%
Cutter: 15%
Curve: 13%
Four-seamer: 5%

While Blackburn will pitch in Colorado this week, he has an amazing two-step next week versus the A’s and Marlins.

Eduardo Rodriguez (7): Rodriguez is finally off the IL and ready to make his first start of the season. He struggled in his first start back with more home runs (2) and walks (2) allowed than strikeouts (1). His velocity was down at a career-low 91.4 mph. Finally, he only last 65 pitches but made it 5 IP.

Martín Pérez (7): Martin has just one start since being traded to the Padres. Against Colorado, he went 6 IP with 7 K and 1 ER. He made a massive arsenal change. Here are the highlights

Pitch: Prev Usage, New Usage, SwSkr%
Sinker: 38%, 18%, 4%
Change: 21%, 26%, 17%
Curve: 10%, 26%, 10%

The Padres seem to want him to throw his best pitches the most (shocking idea).

Nick Martinez (6): Martinez was lined up for a two-start week with games at Miami and Milwaukee. In Martinez’s first start since May, he lasted 5 IP with 5 K and 0 ER. Since that May start, he’s averaged two innings per appearance with a 9.0 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9. Time to see how he performs in the second start.

Relievers

Ryan Thompson (7): Thompson had one of Arizona’s last three Saves which included blowing a chance for another. Thompson isn’t closer material with a 91-mph fastball and a 6.3 K/9. He relies on his 64% GB% to get hitters out.

A.J. Puk (7): I think Arizona wants someone else to secure the closer’s job and then Puk can be used against a team’s best lefties. As a reliever this season, Puk has a 2.08 ERA, 10.4 K/9, and 0.78 WHIP. While the best reliever in the bullpen, he might get limited Save opportunities.

Yennier Cano (6): With Craig Kimbrel struggling since the All-Star break (5.40 ERA, 5.50 xFIP, 8.1 BB/9, 5.6 K%-BB%), so some managers are speculating that Cano will get some Save opportunities.