Big Kid Adds (Week 17)

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Hitters

Colson Montgomery (9): His .257 AVG has come out of left field after struggling to hit for average for years. The biggest surprise has been him dropping his strikeout rate from 33% to 24%. I’m not buying the lower strikeout rate since his swinging-strike rate jumped from 13.1% to 17.2%. Here are some comps to similar swinging-strike rates that point to a 30% K%.

Josh Jung (7): The 27-year-old came off the IL this past Monday (July 21st), so his adds were a week behind. He’s not lived up to his prospect hype and is not a fantasy difference maker (10 HR, 4 SB, .249 AVG). At least he’s healthy … for now.

Gabriel Arias (6): While not much of a fantasy contributor (.234/.294/.381, 7 HR, 4 SB), he is off the IL and back to playing every day.

Joc Pederson (6): Pederson crushes right-handed pitching. Nothing more. One concern is that all his power metrics are at multi-year lows. Maybe bench him for a week or two as he builds up his strength (broken hand).

Warming Bernabel (6): The 23-year-old third baseman is on a Kyren Paris-like hot start. In the majors so far, Bernabel is batting .389/.421/.833 with 2 HR in 19 PA. In AAA, he hit .301/.356/.450 with 8 HR and 5 SB. While those numbers look great, it’s just a 90 wRC+ (10% worse than the average AAA batter) once run environment is taken into account.

His number one trait is his ability to put the ball in play with a just a 12% K% in AAA and a 5% K% so far in the majors. He doesn’t have much power. His AAA 84.2 avgEV ranks 862nd among 972 batters in AAA. He pulled both his home runs right down the line.

For now, he’s an add and monitor.

Ryan Mountcastle (5): Some reports had Mountcastle possibly coming off the IL this week, but it seems to be another week for him.

#Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle (hamstring) is eligible to return from IL tomorrow, but he’s unlikely to be back until series in Philadelphia next week

— Jake Rill (@JakeDRill) July 29, 2025

He’s been crushing AAA so far (253 wRC+) with good EV numbers (97 mph avgEV, 112 maxEV). Once he returns, playing time will not be an issue with some of his teammates traded away.

Tommy Pham (5): The Pham demand comes from his weekend games in Colorado. He’s been playing (starting regularly since July 1st) and hitting (.302/.373/.488 in June) for weeks, but no one seemed to care. He’s not doing anything new. It’s just one of the hot stretches he’ll go on. Ed. note: He did also get a new contact Rx that helped his vision which is particularly important as he does have a degenerative eye issue called keratoconus. 

Coby Mayo (5): With several teammates likely to get traded (did happen), managers hoped Mayo (.225/.307/.382, 3 HR, 1 SB) would get more playing time. I’m just not sure Mayo is a good baseball player.

Starters

Troy Melton (11): So a 10.80 ERA can be ignored? While Melton gave up a ton of hits in his debut against the Pirates, he did strike out seven of them while walking two (3.28 xFIP). And on Monday, he went 7 IP with 5 K, 0 BB, and 0 ER over 7 IP (3.36 xFIP). I had the unknown ranked as my fourth-highest free agent starter this past weekend, and that might have been too low.

He’s example #48452 on why to ignore ERA when evaluating pitchers. Hell, just look at his AAA numbers: 2.72 ERA, 2.24 xFIP, 1.1b WHIP, 12.1 K/9. As for an arsenal, he has a 97-mph fastball (11% SwStr%), slider (23% SwStr%), sinker (75% GB%), cutter, curve, and splitter (14% SwStr%). Here are how the pitches did in AAA:

Ed. note: He did get moved to the bullpen after the deadline moves so now he’s the 6th SP. 

J.T. Ginn (9): Time to keep it simple with Ginn. His stats are

9.6 K/9
2.1 BB/9
54% GB%

Pitchers who are better in all three categories this year:

None

The closest comp is Cristopher Sánchez (9.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 58% GB%). By just continuing to pitch like he has so far, Ginn will be comparable to the top pitchers in the game.

Luis Severino (6): Severino is in the middle of a nice stretch to add as a streamer. This week he faced Seattle (5 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 1 ER, 5 H) with a two-step lineup up next week at Washington and Baltimore.

Besides the decent stream, he has been better in July with a 3.81 ERA (3.42 xFIP) compared to a 5.09 ERA (4.76 xFIP) before that. The improvement is from more strikeouts and groundballs.

Stat: April to June, July
K%: 15%, 24%
FBv: 95.8, 96.8
Zone%: 54%, 56%
GB%: 39%, 51%

The only reasons I could find for the strikeout jump are increased velocity and more pitches in the strike zone. The more I write, the more I’m getting pissed that I didn’t emphasize him more this past weekend.

Justin Verlander (6): This add is almost entirely based on Verlander’s matchup against the Pirates this week (5 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB) and two-step next week against the Pirates and Nationals.

He is showing no signs of improving, so I suspect Verlander will be dropped after the two-start week.

Joey Wentz (5): Like Verlander, Wentz was added for a decent two-start week. This week, he gets Kansas City (6 IP, 7 K, 0 ER, 3 BB) with two starts next week against the Brewers and Marlins.

Wentz is a career 5.59 ERA (4.74 xFIP) with no signs of improving this year (5.45 ERA, 4.47 xFIP). He’s been dropped by two other teams before joining the Braves. In 18 IP since joining the Braves, he has a 3.09 xFIP. With the Pirates, it was a 4.56 xFIP. A 7.95 xFIP with the Twins. The improvement he made was throwing more strikes.

Team: Ball%
PIT: 37%
MIN: 41%
ATL: 34%

A 34% Ball% usually points to a high-3.00 ERA talent. Not great, but way better than his previous results.

Relievers

Seranthony Domínguez (9): These adds coincided with Félix Bautista going on the IL, but all reports had the Orioles trading away Dominguez. And they did. Drop.

Phil Maton (5): Rumors had Ryan Helsley on the move, so fantasy managers bet Maton would take over the closer’s duties. Again, all reports also had Maton on the move. Maton is now a drop.

Blake Treinen (5): The Dodgers didn’t have a closer, and Treinen was coming off the IL. This add was perfect for those looking to add Saves.

Garrett Whitlock (5): On Sunday, Aroldis Chapman left with a back issue, so managers looked to add his replacement.