Big Kid Adds (Week 17)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and there are ten of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Note: After going through the bidding process this past weekend, I wasn’t surprised to see just a handful of guys added. There weren’t many obvious adds and with each team playing three or fewer games, no roster trends could be detected. Also, some teams could be hording their FAAB for some potential injury call-ups (e.g. Ray, Kershaw, Springs, Williams) and the trade deadline.

Batters

Victor Robles (8): Since joining the Mariners, Victor Robles has been on fire with a .996 OPS (.459 BABIP) compared to a .401 OPS (.176 BABIP) with the Nationals. It’s tough to find a core stat that has improved beyond some BABIP luck. While his walks are up, so are his strikeouts. He’s shown more power in the past. He’s not lifting the ball more. Here are his career 40-game averages (time for hitting stats to stabilize). Nothing points to something he hasn’t done before.

Another item I checked was his bat speed, which saw a 1.1 mph increase from 68.8 mph with the Nationals to 69.9 mph with the Mariners. Normally, a 1 mph increase in bat speed leads to an increase of .016 OPS. Nothing groundbreaking.

It’s just a nice run he’s on and roll with it.

Kris Bryant (7): Well, Bryant is off the IL … for now. When in the lineup, Bryant has struggled to make contact (31% K%) or hit with power (.090 ISO). I’m just not sure what to expect. In 621 PA over the past three seasons, he’s hit for a combined .246/.330/.383 with 17 HR and 0 SB. Those are backup catcher stats.

Also, here is a look at his Steamer600(ROS) comps.

Some of the guys are rosterable in deeper leagues with most being streaming options. Probably worth a roster-and-bench.

Eddie Rosario (5): With 11 straight starts, Rosario is a volume play. Too bad the volume is complete garbage. With Atlanta so far, he is hitting .205/.220/.385 with 2 HR and 0 SB in 42 PA. With the struggles, it’ll be interesting to see if Atlanta adds more outfielders at the trade deadline or hopes the 32-year-old regains some of his magic from 2021.

Starters

Hayden Birdsong (5): The 22-year-old righty was navigating around too many walks through his first four starts with an 8.7 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 1.40 WHIP, and 3.72 ERA (4.98 xFIP). Then on Sunday, he destroyed the Rockies with 12 K and 2 BB in 6 IP lowering his xFIP to 4.13.

There were three keys to the exceptional start. First, it was the Rockies who have the league’s third-highest strikeout rate. Second, he only allowed two walks. Free passes have been an issue through the minors and were through his first four starts. Finally, he didn’t throw his fastball and changeup as much and leaned into his slider and curve (both at 34% usage). The two secondaries have a 20% or better swinging-strike rate.

While Birdsong won’t get to face the Rockies all the time, he has the formula to dominate, lean away from this fastball, and throw strikes. It’s not that hard.

Going forward, he should be rostered in all leagues to see if he can repeat the results.

Relievers

Daniel Hudson (9): Hudson has four of the last five Saves on the Dodgers. He didn’t get a chance for five straight because he had thrown on back-to-back days. Must roster in all leagues with Saves.

Victor Vodnik (6): He has the last two Saves from the Rockies. There is nothing elite about Vodnik with a near-4.00 ERA and ERA estimators to match. He only has an 8.1 K/9 even with a 98-mph fastball. Roster while he is the closer but don’t expect him to hold the job.