Big Kid Adds (Week 11)


Tim Vizer-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

[Editor’s note: This Big Kid Adds is based on last week’s changes]

Batters

Lars Nootbaar (9): As close to a must-add as it gets. Given a full season, he could be a 20 HR, 10 SB, and .250 AVG guy. Two questions surround him, though.

The first is his health after surgery on both of his heels this offseason. So far, he’s answered those questions. His bat speed is up 1.2 mph from last year and 2 mph from 2024. Also, his Sprint Speed is up 0.3 ft/s compared to the previous two seasons. Finally, there are no signs of him struggling to make contact with a 91% Contact%. So far, his health seems fine.

The other question surrounds his playing time. For his career, Nootbaar has a .700 OPS against lefties and a .765 OPS against righties. That’s not much of a split, but the Cardinals have platooned him in the past. And his first day off was against a lefty. A key game will be this Saturday when they face another lefty starter (Connor Prielipp).

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Jared Young 제러드 (8): In just 68 PA, the 30-year-old has a 3 HR while batting .271/.353/.475. One major issue with him is that he’s being platooned … I think. While he’s started 11 straight games, all of them have been against a righty starter. Throughout the season, he has only 7 PA against a lefty. It’s 61 times for right-handed pitchers. He’s never had huge splits (career .765 OPS vs RHP, .724 vs LHP), so I’m not sure why he’s getting platooned.

Solid add for someone looking for power and batting average.

Michael Massey (7): Massey is selling out for power, and it’s working with his Isolated Power tripling from .069 ISO to .199 ISO. His Bat Speed, Average Exit Velocity, and Hard Hit% are all career highs. He is on pace for 25 HR (per 600 PA).

Kyle Higashioka (7): His weekly projections stood out and should get playing time until Danny Jansen returns from the IL. Higashioka provides some power (4 HR in 117 PA) while not being a batting average sink (.236 AVG). I feel this is just a weekly stream.

Jacob Gonzalez (6): Since being recalled, the 24-year-old has started eight of ten games, all at first base. A .467 BABIP has him batting .333/.429/.458. While he only has one fewer home run than Fernando Tatis Jr., he led AAA with 19 HR. He does have a 29% K%, but it is with a 79% Contact. He’s just being passive, which is easy to fix. Might be one of the better mid-season rookie callups.

Starters: As seen by the lack of adds, it was a sparse week on the starting pitcher front.

Jack Perkins (5): As I write this, Perkins has yet to throw on Wednesday. There can only be two outcomes since he’s pitching on the moon. He gets lit up, and fantasy managers will ignore the results. Or he pitches decent, and his stock soars. [Update: Solid start: 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 3 BB]

Over his last four appearances (averaging 3 IP per appearance), he has a 7.71 ERA (3.54 xFIP), 1.11 WHIP, and 11.6 K/9. His fastball (8% SwStr%) velocity didn’t drop over the stretch, with his 96.8 mph average reading from his last start being a season high. Besides the fastball, he throws a slider (33% usage, 17% SwStr%), change (17% usage, 24% SwStr%), and cutter (8% usage, 14% SwStr%).

The pieces are there for him to be a great starter. Add him while available.

Hunter Dobbins (5): I wasn’t in on Dobbins, but maybe I should have been. My dislike stemmed from his 4.77 xFIP and 6.7 K/9 in AAA. Strikeouts (9.7 K/9) haven’t been a problem in the majors, but the 4.9 BB/9, leading to a 1.31 WHIP, is one.

He is attacking hitters with five different pitches that he throws between 33% and 11%. He has an elite sinker (13% SwStr% and 80% GB%) and suspect slider (9% SwStr%). Part of the problem with the slider is that it has its own release point, so hitters know it’s coming.

I could see some upside if he cleans up his repertoire and/or throws more strikes.

Andrew Alvarez (5): Alvarez only has two starts this season, but has averaged over 3 IP per appearance. So far, he has a 3.70 ERA (3.15 xFIP), 1.44 WHIP (4.1 BB/9), 56% GB%, and 9.6 K/9. The strikeouts and groundball rate are lit. It’s nice to see the strikeouts since he only has a 92 mph fastball.

The 26-year-old lefty pitches backwards with his slider (18% SwStr%) being his most thrown pitch, and then his curveball (16% SwStr%) being the next. All the STUPH models like his swing-and-miss but aren’t fans of his Control. His 1.44 WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 5.16 ERA. The WHIP will stay high because of his high groundball and walk rate.

Relievers

Alex Lange (9): Adding Lange was an obvious move in these Roto leagues after getting three Saves before FAAB ran in them. And he has one Save since the weekend. I see blow-up potential with his 5.2 BB/9 leading to a ratio-killing 1.45 WHIP.

Yoendrys Gómez (5): Gomez is not a good reliever (3.90 ERA, 5.23 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9, 8.9 K/9), but he might be the best reliever in the Twins bullpen. It’s not a high bar to cross with a team-leading 5 Saves on the season.

He’s extremely flyball prone. Of the 218 pitchers with at least 30 IP this year, his 24% GB% is the league’s lowest. With all the flyballs, he hasn’t allowed a home run since April 17th (21 appearances). That streak will end at some point, and it will be ugly if the walks continue.

 

Most Added Players in NFBC “Elite” Leagues
Name Leagues Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Alex Lange 9 60 2
Lars Nootbaar 9 47 1
Jared Young 8 26 3
Michael Massey 7 14 3
Kyle Higashioka 7 13 2
Jacob Gonzalez 6 34 5
Jack Perkins 5 22 7
Yoendrys Gomez 5 13 1
Hunter Dobbins 5 32 17
Andrew Alvarez 5 10 7
Kyle Karros 4 5 1
Spencer Jones 4 32 3
Trevor Rogers 4 45 12
Andrew Benintendi 4 25 6
Ryan Ward 4 16 2
Jake Bennett 4 19 1
Mason Englert 4 11 4
Shane Drohan 4 44 6
Robert Gasser 4 18 6
Dean Kremer 4 8 2





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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O'KieboomerMember since 2021
19 days ago

Not saying Gomez is good but he’s pitching totally differently from his horrible Rays tenure. Throwing all his pitches just a little bit harder, but leaning more into the fastball/slider and having greater success (7.26 –> 2.31 FIP) in nearly equal sample sizes. Still an extreme flyball pitcher but less of a complete outlier and yeah lucky to have not given up a HR yet since changing jersey’s, but he’s clearly both earned and deserved his run as maybe-closer, and that’s masked by viewing the aggregate.

O'KieboomerMember since 2021
19 days ago
Reply to  O'Kieboomer

Put another way: his aggregate K-BB% of 10% is mediocre-bad; his Rays K-BB% of 3.7% is atrocious; and his Twins K-BB% of 19% is very respectable!