Big Kid Adds (Week 11)

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Ronny Mauricio (11): In eight games since being recalled from AAA, he has started in seven games while batting .208/.296/.375 with 1 HR and 2 SB. The lack of production stems from a 50% GB and 30% K%. He’s been struggling against slower secondaries.

Pitch: SwStr%
Changeup: 27%
Splitter: 20%
Curveball: 19%

While there is some swing-and-miss in his game, his power stands out with a 13% Barrel%, 44% HardHit%, and 90.5 mph avgEV. Batters with similar overall skill sets to Mauricio are Johan Rojas and Noelvi Marte. Add and hope he makes contact eventually.

David Fry (9): Fry slots into the short side of the DH platoon. Seven of the nine games since he came off the IL were against lefty starters (22 PA vs LHP, 3 vs RHP). They have eaten him up. So far, he’s batting .143/.280/.286 (44% K%) with 1 HR and 1 SB.

His arm isn’t healed enough to catch and hasn’t hit lefties yet, so he feels like dead weight. He has three lefties on the schedule for next week, so maybe give him one more chance before moving on.

Tyler Freeman (9): Started in nine straight games, mainly batting ninth. So far, he’s been fine while batting .303/.372/.455 with 1 HR but 7 SB. In roto leagues, those stolen bases are gold. Hopefully at some point the Rockies management pulls their heads out of their asses and moves Freeman up the lineup, but I would count on either happening.

Ryan Ritter (7): Ritter seemed like a solid add. In AAA, he hit .305/.413/.635 with 16 HR and 3 SB in 245 PA (two triples so far). While he only had a 20% K% in AAA, it has ballooned to 38% in the majors with pitchers feeding him secondaries (41% fastballs). Here are his AAA per-pitch swing-and-miss numbers.

He’s seen more sliders than any other pitch with a 32% SwStr%.

Besides his struggles at the plate, Ezequiel Tovar will return from the IL, thereby forcing Ritter to move to a new position or back to AAA.

Kyle Teel (6): Since the 23-year-old was promoted, he started all five games while batting .250/.471/.250 (3 H, 5 BB) in 17 PA. His managers hoped for a continuation of his AAA stats (8 HR, 7 SB, .295 AVG in 213 PA).

He’s only seen fastballs 34% of the time with a swinging-strike rate of 20% or higher against sliders, curves, and changes. His 29% K% (16% SwStr%) is not debilitating, but it will hold him back.

Rosterable in all two-catcher formats based on the playing time prospect status.

Parker Meadows (6): Since coming off the IL, Meadows is hitting .161/.278/.258 (.217 BABIP) with 0 HR but 2 SB. Besides the low BABIP, all of his previous metrics line up. I was hoping he’d lower his launch angle, but he’s still trying to air every ball out (46% FB%).

The team doesn’t trust him against lefties even though he’s hit lefties (108 wRC+) better than righties (101 wRC+) over his career. He sat the first time the team faced one. The other time, he hit ninth.

Hopefully, he can stay healthy and provide 20/20 production over the rest of the season.

Nick Gonzales (6): Started in eight of nine games since coming off the IL while batting .242/.278/.455 with 1 HR. Solid middle-infield bench bat.

Jac Caglianone (5): In most instances, managers rostered Jeffrey Allen weeks ago. He’s not been great but also not a complete zero (.242/.242/.303).

Jacob Melton (5): The top prospect is starting (eight of nine games) but struggling to hit (.185/.241/.185) with the culprit being a 41% K%. Seems outmatched with limited upside.

Jerar Encarnacion (5): No stat line will positively stand out with a .077 BABIP. Besides having no batted ball luck, in seven games since coming off the IL, he’s only started in four of them. A pass for now.

Starters

Sawyer Gipson-Long (11): The 27-year-old righty debuted last week and is now in the middle of a two-start week. Over three levels during his rehab, he posted a 2.20 ERA (3.01 xFIP), 0.98 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9. The results have continued with a 4.32 ERA (3.09 xFIP), 1.08 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9.

Besides focusing on the least predictive stat (ERA), everything so far points to him being an above-average pitcher. The STUPH models love him with a 64 botOverall (2.78 batERA) and 105 Pitching+ (3.78 Pitch+ERA). His 15.7% SwStr% would rank third among qualified starters behind Tarik Skubal and Dylan Cease. His 26% Ball% points to a 1.0 BB/9.

I’m guessing I’ll have Gipson-Long as the top add in this week’s waiver wire report.

Note. The formula I use to convert Pitching+ to an ERA equivalent is: Pitch+ERA = -0.067 * Pitching+ + 10.815

Brandon Walter (8): In two starts, the 28-year-old lefty has been solid with a 1.64 ERA (2.45 xFIP), 0.91 WHIP, 58% GB%, and 8.2 K/9. He posted similar stats in AAA with a 2.08 ERA (3.63 xFIP), 0.76 WHIP, 60% GB%, and 9.3 K/9.

In the small sample, only the core stats are important, and they look good. His STUPHs are a 57 botOverall (3.46 ERA) and 104 Pitching+ (3.85 ERA). His 31% Ball% points to a 1.9 BB/9. While his fastball clocks in at only 92 mph, he has decent secondaries, a slider (15% SwStr%) and change (14% SwStr%), to get lefties and righties out. While his sinker hasn’t missed many bats (4% SwStr%), it does have a 75% GB%.

Walter needs to be added in all formats to see if the results continue.

Hunter Dobbins (6): Dobbins is a tough pitcher to value with him leaving the rotation and then rejoining it. In the last three starts, he has a 3.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Before that, it was a 7.9 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9.

He’s experiencing some issues with his release point as seen from his game plot.

His slider is released about a foot over compared to his fastball.

There was something there, and there still could be, but we can’t know for sure. None of the managers who added Dobbins started him against the Yankees, so they are going with a wait-and-see approach.

Mitch Spence (5): He was scheduled to face the Angels and did his best with 4 K, 0 BB, and 0 ER in 5 IP. Under the hood, things look great with a cutter (9% SwStr%, 48% thrown), slider (21% SwStr%), and curve (20% SwStr%). There are some questions about him staying in the rotation.

Justin Wrobleski (5): He was promoted to start on Wednesday but didn’t get the start or an appearance in the game. I have no idea what his role is going forward.

I’ve go no idea on how to value him right now.

Trevor Williams (5): I was part of these adds. With little pitching available, his next two starts were against Miami and Colorado in Washington. While Williams has a 5.91 ERA (.327 BABIP, 60% LOB%), his ERA estimators are at 4.00.

Mitchell Parker (5): Parker gets the same two opponents as Williams, but Parker’s is worse. His 6.0 K/9 is the 9th worst among 79 qualified starters, and his 3.6 BB/9 is too high for someone with so few strikeouts. His ERA and estimators hover around 4.50.

Bryce Elder (5): These adds were because of Elder’s home start against Colorado. On the season, Elder has shown high-3.00 ERA talent, so a reasonable dart throw against the Rockies.

Relievers

Randy Rodríguez (7): In 29 IP, he’s been elite with a 0.61 ERA (1.69 xFIP), 0.61 WHIP, and 13.2 K/9. So far, he has 3 Wins and 1 Save.

Additions in NFBC High Stakes Leagues
Name Leagues High Winning Bid Low Winning Bid.
Ronny Mauricio 11 183 51
Sawyer Gipson-Long 11 63 14
David Fry 9 48 3
Tyler Freeman 9 26 1
Brandon Walter 8 27 1
Ryan Ritter 7 11 5
Randy Rodriguez 7 8 4
Kyle Teel 6 166 1
Parker Meadows 6 150 56
Nick Gonzales 6 19 1
Hunter Dobbins 6 17 1
Jac Caglianone 5 523 173
Bryce Elder 5 67 7
Jacob Melton 5 53 7
Mitch Spence 5 23 1
Mitchell Parker 5 19 3
Justin Wrobleski 5 17 6
Jerar Encarnacion 5 17 4
Trevor Williams 5 13 1
Michael McGreevy 4 37 32
Wenceel Perez 4 35 8
Dylan Lee 4 33 1
Ramon Laureano 4 28 11
Chris Martin 4 27 3
Jurickson Profar 4 24 6
Colin Rea 4 20 3
Luke Raley 4 19 8
Mike Burrows 4 18 1
Otto Kemp 4 17 1
Quinn Priester 4 17 1
Ben Casparius 4 16 7
Shelby Miller 4 16 3
Bailey Falter 4 8 1
Henry Davis 4 8 1





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

5 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
the ghost of tyler chatwoods controlMember since 2021
2 days ago

Thank you for highlighting Tyler Freeman’s value (and the Rockies idiocy) in your writeup here and your waiver wire piece. I found it odd that he wasn’t written up in more places given his projections and everyday PT.
Re: Mauricio — he has a reputation as a guy with big power speed potential but he’s only got 18th percentile sprint speed and a 40 Speed scouting grade. Given that and his murky future playing time situation I didn’t understand the high bids for him this weekend.

montrealMember since 2022
2 days ago

Agreed on both fronts. Mauricio is overrated and Acuna could take his at bats. I believe it is well established that the Rockies are flat out stupid from their owner to their GM to their manager. Imagine they can’t find players that can hit in Colorado !! Dick Monfort is a horrible owner and Schmidt is a lousy GM who can’t even improve a lousy team 1%

David KleinMember since 2024
2 days ago
Reply to  montreal

I don’t see Acuna who has beyond beyond wretched with the bat playing over Mauricio. I do think Mauricio could go down in a few weeks when Vientos returns.

montrealMember since 2022
1 day ago
Reply to  David Klein

For me Acuna is difficult to strike out and has terrific base stealing ability. Mauricio strikes out too much but does have more power. I guess you could argue either side.

David KleinMember since 2024
1 day ago
Reply to  montreal

You know the old saying you can’t steal first base?