Big Kid Adds (Week 10)

by
May 30, 2023

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more of these leagues.

Batters

Nolan Jones (9): Jones was a tough guy to value in FAAB this past weekend. He was tore up the PCL (.356/.481/.711, 12 HR, 5 SB) and got three straight starts at first once promoted. Here are the Steamer600 (ROS) comps for Jones.

While the names aren’t elite, they are definitely rosterable if in a full-time role.

The issue holding down his value will be how much playing time he’ll get. Mike Moustakas got the next start at first and C.J. Cron is on his way back off the IL. Also, the outfield and DH is appear full. I could easily see the Rockies demoting him once Cron is healthy because they are the Rockies.

Willi Castro (9): I was high on Castro until the news of Max Kepler and Royce Lewis coming off the IL came out. Castro has been starting (11 of last 12 games) while hitting .265/.324/.441 with 4 HR and 9 SB. Those stats will play.

The team stuck with Castro (who has options remaining) in the first game back with Matt Wallner (1.099 OPS in the majors) getting demoted back to AAA. Even though Castro has been a below-average hitter, he’ll likely not end up in a platoon since his career splits are almost identical (.709 OPS vs LHP, .670 vs RHP).

If Castro continues to play and steal bases, he might end up as one of the season’s FAAB steals.

Patrick Bailey (8): For any team needing a catcher, Bailey was an obvious add, even if he’s just a one or two-week streaming option. With Joey Bart on the IL, Bailey has started in eight of the last 10 games while hitting .355/.375/.645 with 2 HR. While Bailey hit in AA (.881 OPS), he struggled some with his AAA promotion (.670 OPS).

The projections aren’t buying the .335 AVG with estimates on his batting average near .230. His power seems league average. In 153 PA so far this season, he has hit 6 HR, so prorated out to 450 PA, it’s 18 HR. Also, he seems to attempt a few stolen bases (3 SB in the minors this year, 6 SB in 2021).

If he keeps hitting he should stay in the majors even when Bart returns.

Drew Waters (7): The 24-year-old Waters has the makings of a dual threat (17 HR and 18 SB combined in 2022), but he has major contact issues in the majors. So far this season he has a 46% K% and a 27% SwStr%. Teams aren’t throwing him many fastballs (39%) and he’s flailing at everything else (55% SwStr% vs sliders). He has similar contact issues last season (37% K%).

When he does make contact with his line drive swing, he puts the ball in play with authority (.362 career BABIP). So far this season, he has just three singles to show for it. I’m getting some Kevin Kiermaier and Leody Taveras vibes from him. Decent power and speed and could stick in the majors if he makes enough contact.

Luis Urías (7): With word coming out that Urias was on a rehab assignment, his demand skyrocketed. More on him in Miller’s take.

Owen Miller (7): Miller has started 12 straight games with the last three coming at second base. The 26-year-old has cut his strikeout rate for the second year in a row (27% to 20% to 15%) and has a .330 AVG this season (.366 BABIP). Besides the batting average, he has 4 HR and 6 SB in 124 PA.

His playing time is safe for the week but what happens when Urias comes off the IL? My guess is that the team will just cycle in an off day with Brian Anderson (.769 OPS) going to the outfield when needed. Possibly Urias becomes a super sub. Maybe Tyrone Taylor to the bench. No idea.

Yuli Gurriel (7): He’s started seven straight games while hitting .297/.351/.441 with 3 HR and 2 SB on the season. Miami’s original plan was to feature Garrett Cooper at first, but he’s struggling at the plate (.236/.275/.389). My guess is that Gurriel will get a nice run as long as he remains productive.

Jesús Sánchez (6): Sánchez is about to come off the IL after having a productive May (.400/.400/.880, 2 HR in 25 PA). Sanchez hasn’t taken a step forward with a 31% K% and career-high 15% SwStr%. It’s either home run or bust for him.

It’ll be interesting to see how Sanchez’s playing time works out. Likely Soler moves back to DH (cutting into Cooper’s playing time). One possibility is that Sanchez will only face righties (career .773 OPS vs RHP, .595 OPS vs LHP) and Cooper will face lefties (career .800 OPS vs LHP, .766 vs RHP).

Bo Naylor (6): Naylor is hitting .263/.396/.491 with 9 HR in AAA. He can be rostered (played in one game of a doubleheader) and held with the hope that he’ll be promoted soon.

Starters

Bobby Miller (8): His promotion has been covered in detail by others.

Michael Grove (7): I missed on Grove. He is on his way back from the IL and is expected to take Gavin Stone’s spot in the rotation. While the 26-year-old Grove was great in AAA (12.6 K/9 1.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP), he’s struggled in the majors (7.9 K/9, 8.44 ERA, 1.75 WHIP). His minor league stats have some Blake Snell vibes going on with a ton of strikeouts (11.4 K/9) and walks (3.8 BB/9).

One note on his rehab starts, he’s averaging 95.4 mph on his fastball. His fastball is up 1.5 mph from earlier this season and up 1.0 mph from last season. In AAA, his slider is also up over 1 mph with a 44% SwStr%.

It’ll be interesting to see which pitcher debuts in the majors.

Ryne Nelson (5): I stared at Nelson’s upcoming schedule and just couldn’t pull the trigger. This week he has a two-step (vs COL, vs ATL) and a game against Detroit next week. My issue with Nelson is that he’s not been close to being a league-average pitcher (5.37 ERA, 4.85 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, 5.8 K/9). He was a streaming option, but not one I was willing to chance.

Adrian Houser (5): Houser was on my radar after putting up above-average numbers so far this season. I know the 2.25 ERA won’t last but his ERA estimators are in the 4.00 range making him an above-average arm.

He doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts (6.3 K/9) but he’s limiting walks (1.8 BB/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (55% GB%). Where I added him, I limited my exposure because of two tough starts this week (at Toronto, at Cincinnati).

Julio Teheran (5): For years, I’ve been down on Teheran, but he might be a streaming option. He’s taken a step forward by simply not throwing his fastballs as much (63% in ’21 to 54% this season). With San Diego in AAA, he posted a 3.6 BB/9 after posting a 4.3 BB/9 or higher from 2018 to 2021. He needs to keep the walks in check.

Next week he is lined up for two starts (at CIN, vs OAK)

Relievers

There was no movement this week with closers. I’d not be surprised if some teams dropped all their FAAB if one pops up.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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