Big, Bad Jon Broxton

At first glance, one might think that Jonathan Broxton just got lost on his way to a San Diego Chargers game. The 6-4, 290 pound behemoth wouldn’t at all look out of place in the huddle (and, in fact, he’s bigger than defensive end Luis Castillo). But Broxton is very much a pitcher, and as one might expect from such a frame, he is capable of tossing scorching fastballs that wear out radar guns everywhere.

Selected out of a Georgia high school in the second round of the 2002 draft, Broxton began his career as a starting pitcher. Fifty of his 87 career minor league appearances were of the starting variety, and he fared quite well in the role. In the High-A Florida State League in 2004, he punched out 144 batters in 128.1 innings, walking 43 and surrendering just 110 hits. Despite the success, Broxton was always seen as a reliever-in-the-making, with his premium heat, sharp slider, ample size and lagging changeup.

Suffice it to say, Broxton took to the bullpen well, and has posted three consecutive high-octane seasons for the Dodgers. His career Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) is 2.72, with a gargantuan 11.43 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9. Equipped with mid-to-high 90’s gas (which has actually increased in speed each year of his big league career) and an upper-80’s slider, Broxton has been extremely difficult to make contact with. His career Contact% is 72.4%, including a 71.2 mark in 2008 that ranked 10th among all qualified relievers.

Broxton was used in plenty of critical situations in ’08 (his LI was 1.7), but he didn’t perform as well as he had the previous two seasons. While he stranded runners at an 82.2% clip in ’06 and 75.1% in ’07, his LOB% fell to 67.7% in 2008. Broxton’s WPA was -0.14. With a low strand rate and a high BABIP (.328), however, he figures to improve going forward. Using Expected Fielding Independent ERA (XFIP) from The Hardball Times, we find that Broxton’s ’08 performance (2.91) fit right in with his 2006 (3.33) and 2007 (2.75) showings.

Though he didn’t fare especially well in high-leverage moments in 2008, Broxton still possesses all the skills necessary to become one of the best relievers in the NL. He’ll more than likely get the chance to prove his closer worthiness, as Takashi Saito was recently non-tendered due to concerns over the condition of his elbow. With the ability to miss bats by the bushel, Broxton figures to tackle hitters in the late innings in 2009.