Big Kid Adds (Week 20)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and there are ten of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Adrian Del Castillo (8): I’ve had my eye on Del Castillo for a while. Using a filter that regresses AAA wRC+ based on the plate appearances at the level*, he was the second highest behind James Wood. From everything I’ve read, he’s a bat-first catcher and still needs to work behind the plate.

After destroying AAA (1.010 OPS), he is hitting even better in the majors (1.128 OPS) but with a .583 BABIP. With some catchers not performing at all, I think Del Castillo is a must-roster by some team even in all 12-team, single-catcher leagues.

Zach Dezenzo (7): Since his debut, Dezenzo has started in six of eight games (no platoon). Like Del Castillo, Dezenzo destroyed AAA (1.211 OPS) but he is not getting the same BABIP luck (.222 BABIP). While his batting line (.200/.231/.360) isn’t the best, he is showing that he belongs with a 23% K% and 47% HardHit%.

Alex Call (6): Since being recalled, Call has started in 14 of 15 games while hitting .426/.483/.611 (.512 BABIP) over that stretch. By looking under the hood, he’s figured out he’s not a power hitter with a career 4% Barrel% which ranks him 286th of 321 batters over the past three seasons (min 650 PA). He is now hitting for average by lowering his Launch Angle from 17 to 6 degrees with his groundball rate going from 38% to 47%. Additionally, he has a career-low 42% Pull%. He might now be a .260 AVG, 8 HR, 25 SB talent instead of .220 AVG, 15 HR, and 15 SB guy.

Andrew Benintendi (6): He’s having a Kevin Pillar-esque hot month by hitting .295/.326/.727 with 5 HR (31% HR/FB%). The only change I could spot is that he’s pulling the ball 58% of the time. It might be a semi-breakout … maybe.

Otto Lopez (5): A source of speed (13 SB) and not much else (3 HR, .562 OPS) in 270 PA. He has started in 10 straight games and normally bats sixth.

Dominic Smith (5): Strong-side platoon bat and the Red Sox were scheduled to face six righties this week. He is hitting just .239/.319/.393 with 6 HR in 276 PA.

Nick Sogard (5): Started in 11 of the last 12 games while posting a .586 OPS on the season (45 PA). Here are his unimpressive Steamer600 comps with his cousin Eric on the list.

Starters

Tyler Mahle (10): In two starts so far (9.2 IP), Mahle has not allowed a home run (39% GB%) so he has a nice 2.79 ERA (2.87 FIP). It’s impossible to get a read on him just yet but here are a couple of items to keep an eye on.

The first is his 3.7 BB/9. A 3.5 BB/9 is usually needed to maintain a rosterable WHIP but his 35% Ball% instead points to a 2.6 BB/9. Additionally, his 52.4% Zone% is his highest since 2018 (54.5%).

The one concerning value is his fastball velocity. Over the past two seasons, his fastball velocity has dropped off before heading to the IL.

The issue this season is that so far Mahle has averaged a career-low 92.2 mph on his fastball. How far can his velo drop and still be effective? We might find out.

DL Hall (9): I don’t get everyone’s infatuation with an always injured league-average middle reliever. Over three seasons, he’s only pitched in 24 games, starting in just six of them (8.03 ERA, 4.86 xFIP, 10.2 K/9, 2.15 WHIP as a starter). While he can strikeout batters (10.7 K/9), he walks too many (4.0 BB/9, 1.69 WHIP).

Additionally, his fastball velocity was at 94.6 mph. It’s about halfway between his 92.3 mph to start this season and the 95.9 mph average before this season.

The Brewers noticed the issues and demoted him to AAA.

Bowden Francis (8): I missed the boat on Francis and his changes. First, he quit throwing an ineffective curve (8% Swstr%, 38% GB%) and increased the usage of his splitter (10% SwStr%, 63% GB%) and slider (19% SwStr%).

Additionally, he added a sinker (9% SwStr%) but its shape characteristics are lacking.

There is a combination that will work for Francis and he’s getting closer to it.

Albert Suárez 수아레즈 (7): Tolerable as a starter this season with a 3.43 ERA (4.61 xFIP), 7.4 K/9, and 1.35 WHIP. He probably got on people’s radars by not allowing any runs over these last two starts to go with 11 K. The only change that I could find was that he threw his curve (6% SwStr%) more and his change (8% SwStr%) less.

Cody Bradford (6): I think fantasy managers forgot how much Bradford was dominating (1.40 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 7.9 K/9, 0.62 WHIP) before he went on the IL. In his first two games after returning, he allowed three home runs in 5.2 IP so he posted a 12.71 ERA even though his xFIP was down at 3.64. In his third start, he went 5 IP against the Yankees and didn’t allow a run while striking out seven batters. His 25% K%-BB% over those last three games would rank fourth among qualified starters.

His arsenal remained the same with a fastball (13% SwStr%), change (15% SwStr%), and curve (4% SwStr%) combining for 94% of his usage. It would be nice if he found a decent third pitch. His slider (17% SwStr%, 5% usage) might be the pitch based on its comps.

Osvaldo Bido (6): Over Bido’s last two starts, he has a 1.50 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, 8.3 K/9, and 1.00 WHIP. I’m surprised he’s been useful this season with a 4.4 BB/9 and just a 30% GB%. I expect a home run rate higher than 0.5 HR/9 going forward and then those walks will haunt him. He may be worth streaming at home (Oakland) but his profile could blow up with any start.

Grant Holmes (5): Holmes mixed starting and relieving this season but has started in the last four games. As a starter, he has a 4.57 ERA (2.87 xFIP), 10.8 K/9, 50% GB%, and 1.34 WHIP.

He utilizes four pitches which he throws between 14% and 37% of the time. As a starter, his four-seamer averages 94.1 mph with an 11% SwStr% on the season. His slider (19% SwStr%) and curve (22% SwStr%, 57% GB%) have been elite for the season. They might take a small step back with Holmes starting but probably not too far. His cutter (8% SwStr%) is his worst pitch. In his last start, he abandoned the pitch thereby adding some upside.

If he can remain in the Braves rotation with Reynaldo López coming off the IL, he’s a great value. Maybe Charlie Morton and his 5.79 second-half ERA will get moved to the bullpen.

Relievers

Ryan Walker (9): The number of bullpen options available this week was absolutely crazy. Walker was the obvious add since his manager came out and anointed him the Giants closer, but even if you missed out, there were multiple valuable options to speculate on starting with…

Justin Martinez (9): The Arizona closer situation isn’t as clear. Martinez has gotten the last few Save chances but it seems the team would like Paul Sewald to regain the role. Ride Martinez until the change happens.

Seranthony Domínguez (9): With Craig Kimbrel struggling, Domínguez has secured the last two Saves in Baltimore. Add him while you can.

Aroldis Chapman (7): These adds aren’t about Chapman doing anything special. They are about David Bednar shitting the bed. Since the All-Star break, Bednar has an 8.64 ERA with as many walks as strikeouts (8).

Tyler Holton (6): It’s not obvious who is the closer in Detroit with Will Vest and Jason Foley as other options. For now, Holton is a dart throw that may work out. (Editor and resident Tigers fan note: Since last year, Holton has a 5% BB (5th among RP, min. 100 IP) and .181 AVG (8th) leading to the best WHIP by a healthy margin as his 0.84 easily clears Matt Strahm at 0.92 so I think he can handle closing if they let him, but they might just like him as the lefty fireman who can work anywhere from open – which he’s done 3x this yr – to close)

* Regressed wRC+ = (AAA wRC+ * AAA PA + 100 wRC+ * 600 PA)/(AAA PA + 600 PA)