Betting a Hundy on Dylan Bundy

Yes, I came up with that brilliant title all by myself. So, Dylan Bundy, he has been a top prospect for seemingly forever. He was selected fourth overall in the 2011 draft and his eventual arrival to the big leagues was eagerly anticipated. His high 90s fastball fueled a near 30% strikeout rate over three different levels during his 2012 debut. Unfortunately, the good times soon came to an end, as he ended up succumbing to Tommy John surgery, which caused him to miss the entire 2013 season. He returned in 2014 to pitch 41.1 innings, but his strikeout rate in High-A over a rather small sample collapsed to just 12.8%. Then in 2015, he was shut down with a shoulder injury and managed to throw just 24 innings. And now, he is back with the Orioles after debuting for two games back in 2012. Phew, it’s been quite the roller coaster ride indeed.

Given all the arm injuries Bundy has suffered through, one had to wonder whether he would ever reach the potential he once had. We know that elbow injuries, especially those that lead to TJ surgery, typically mess with a pitcher’s control and often have a long-term effect on fastball velocity. Shoulder injuries also frequently ruin careers and reduce effectiveness. But here he is now, having posted a 3.05 ERA over 65 innings with a 24.1% strikeout rate and 3.62 SIERA.

Before the season began, it was assumed that Bundy would be a member of the Orioles bullpen all season, with little, if any, chance of starting games. Given his injury history and lack of innings, the team wanted to be cautious and ease him into an increased workload. But the team apparently had a change of heart, as Bundy actually joined the rotation to make his first career MLB start on July 17th and has made four additional starts since.

His skills as a starter have been even more impressive than as a reliever. He has posted a 32% strikeout rate (ranking second among AL starters over the last 30 days), 5.8% walk rate and 2.84 SIERA. Driving the strikeout rate is a 12.7% SwStk%, a metric that has been extremely consistent, as he hasn’t dipped below 10.2% in any of his starts. He has also shown sterling control, pumping in first pitch strikes at a high rate, with the exception of his second start.

Interestingly, his fastball velocity is actually up compared with his time as a reliever. You don’t see that very often!

Obviously, this is an excellent sign, as it suggests the increased workload hasn’t worn him out…yet, at least.

Perhaps surprisingly, his changeup has easily been his best pitch from a whiff perspective. Though it received the worst current and future scouting grade back when reported in February of 2015, it has generated a SwStk% of 22.3%. According to Baseball Prospectus’ PITCHf/x leaderboard, batters are swingings at the pitch at the third highest rate among all pitchers who have thrown the changeup at least 200 times. But batters aren’t doing a job of actually making contact, as Bundy has induced the 18th highest Whiff/Swing rate, among 76 qualifiers. That’s quite the combination – batters can’t lay off the pitch and when they swing, they miss!

His fastball has also been above average in generating swings and misses, but his slider (cutter?) and curve ball have both been weak from a whiff standpoint. The good news is those pitches were both expected to be better then the change, so the potential may remain for improvement. Since he is already throwing an elite changeup, a third above average pitch, especially one that could get ground balls, would make him that much more exciting. As is, the extreme fly ball rate is a bit of a concern given his home park.

I don’t know how many starts and innings Bundy has left in him this year, but he has made an amazing comeback form his previously injury riddled career. His velocity and stuff have returned and he has performed as well as anyone could have hoped. He should remain a mixed league asset for as long as he takes the mound.