Ben Zobrist: Is the Zorilla Becoming Extinct?

Since his 2009 breakout, Ben Zobrist has been a consistent all-around fantasy contributor, with his blend of power and speed. But the first chinks in the armor started to show in 2013. After hitting 20+ homers in three of his previous four seasons, he knocked just 12 out of the park. And after attempting at least 23 steals each season, he made just 14 attempts. Unfortunately, he failed to bounce back this year and posted a nearly identical season, just reaching double digits in both homers and steals. Does this mark the end of the Zorilla’s jungle rein or is there one last rebound in his future?

Let’s start with the good news. Zobrist’s plate discipline remains fantastic, as he continued to take walks at a well above average clip, keeping his walk rate above 10% for the seventh straight season. That plate patience should keep him in the top half of the lineup, which should ensure that his combined runs scored and batted in totals contribute positive value. He also cut down on his strikeout rate, albeit marginally, for the third straight year, posting the lowest mark of his career. Even though he’s on the wrong side of 30, he swung and missed at the lowest rate of his career. That’s pretty impressive.

Moving on from his plate discipline, we transition into some of those negative pieces. He hit ground balls at the highest rate of his career, which could benefit his BABIP and batting average, but not help him rebound in the home run department. Oddly, he also posted his highest IFFB% since his 2006 debut. Usually an increase in fly ball rate would pair with a jump in pop-up rate. The batted ball distribution change could be a one year blip though, and since it’s a small enough change, it’s likely that there was no real change in plate approach.

We know that speed declines with age and so expecting Zobrist to return to the mid-to-high teens in steals would be silly. He should continue to steal around 10 though, anything more is just a bonus.

The real question of course is that of his power. His HR/FB rate trend has been absolutely crazy throughout his career. Check it out:

But aside from his outlier 2009 of 299 feet, his batted ball distance has been pretty consistent over the past five years:

Yes, there’s a clear decline over the last two years, but nine feet of distance shouldn’t result in a HR/FB rate that’s cut in half. His distances match better with about a 9% HR/FB rate mark, which is 50% higher than what he has posted in 2013 and 2014. A 9% HR/FB rate would have resulted in 14-15 homers this year, a level he could easily reach next season.

It’s easy to look at Zobrist’s age and write him off as a declining veteran. This characterization is true, of course, but I think his results have declined a bit more than his skills suggest they should. So I still see some rebound in him, at least in the power department. Surely it’s a bit boring to go with the Zobrist types in your draft, but when your leaguemates ignore them and instead choose to invest in the youngster with big upside, you pounce.