Bargain Hunting: Five for $5

This post was inspired by Trey Baughn’s Bargain Shopping: Five for $5 from December. With just days remaining before the start of the 2017 baseball season, most fantasy auctions and drafts are completed. However, since some will take place this week, and since most fantasy owners are always interested in making savvy moves to improve their rosters, now is as good a time as any to talk about fantasy bargains. To qualify for this list, players must simply cost less than $6 on the Ottoneu Average Salaries page (sorted by “All game types”) and be beyond rookie status. Getting right into the list:

1. Lucas Duda ($4.12; 1B)

The only thing holding Duda back is health, and he appears to be healthy. As of Monday afternoon, Duda has played 14 of the Mets’ 22 spring training games and batted .250/.325/.556 with no health setbacks. In his career, Duda has a .345 wOBA and 122 wRC+, and he was even better in 2014 and 2015 before missing most of 2016 with a back injury. Duda’s best attributes as a hitter are his patience (11.3% career walk rate) and his power (.203 career ISO), and both should return to form if he’s healthy in 2017. Additionally, the league average ISO spiked dramatically from 2015 to 2016, from .150 to .165, so Duda could be primed to display even more power than before if the league-wide trend continues. While being a first baseman limits Duda’s upside, he has definite bargain potential at under $5.

2. Ivan Nova ($4.88; SP)

Before being traded to the Pirates, Nova had a 4.41 ERA and 4.40 FIP in 729 career innings for the Yankees. After being traded, he had a 3.06 ERA and 3.13 FIP in 64 2/3 innings. Nova’s batted ball profile in Pittsburgh was almost identical to his batted ball profile in New York, but he reduced his walk rate from 2.9 BB/9 to 0.4 BB/9 and his home run rate from 1.1 HR/9 to 0.6 HR/9. While the extremely low walk rate is not repeatable, there is reason for general optimism since Pittsburgh pitching coach Ray Searage has turned pitchers’ careers around before, and Nova is automatically helped by the move from the American League East and a small home ballpark to the National League and a large home ballpark. Nova has picked up in spring training where he left off last season: he has allowed just one walk and one home run in 14 Grapefruit League innings. Depth Charts buys into the changes (to an extent) by projecting 2.13 BB/9 and 0.91 HR/9 for Nova in 2017. He’s worth a speculative look at a low price.

3. Jorge Polanco ($3.27; 2B/SS/3B)

Once Brian Dozier departs Minnesota, and thus releases his stronghold on second base, Polanco may not stick at shortstop because of his defense. But in 2017, Polanco is eligible all over the infield, and he could be a nifty piece at a bargain rate. Just 23 years old, Polanco doesn’t receive much hype despite a career .332 wOBA and 106 wRC+ in an admittedly small sample of 290 plate appearances. However, a young shortstop who’s projected to be a near-league-average bat should be a hot commodity. Polanco has the potential to provide double-digit home runs and steals with a decent average and on-base percentage, and, thanks to his high line drive and fly ball rates, there’s upside for more.

4. Jhonny Peralta ($2.95; SS/3B)

This pick was contingent on Peralta winning the third base job in St. Louis, a feat he has reportedly accomplished. Yes, Peralta is coming off a poor season decimated by injury, and yes, there are over a dozen other shortstops more exciting than Peralta. However, at age 34, Peralta is not as old as people think, and he’s not that far removed from being consistently productive. From 2011 to 2015, Peralta had a .335 wOBA and 111 wRC+ while averaging 143 games per season. The consensus seems to be that Peralta is old, injury prone, and washed up, but attaching those labels to Peralta could prove to be premature. As the next player on this list will show, age is just a number, and Peralta is not nearly as advanced in that category as some. This season, Peralta may very well provide boring near-league-average production that will neither excite you nor let you down. However, at next to no cost, he has the potential to remind everyone why, just two short years ago, he was one of the most desirable shortstop commodities around.

5. Carlos Beltran ($5.61; OF)

If you think Jhonny Peralta is old, observe Carlos Beltran, who turns 40 in April. Advanced age didn’t stop this future Hall of Famer from putting up a wOBA almost identical to his career average in 2017 (.358 vs. .361). Indeed, Beltran slashed .295/.337/.513 with a 124 wRC+ in 151 games for the Yankees and Rangers last season. Now with the Astros, Beltran can stay fresh by serving as the team’s primary designated hitter, and the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park won’t do him any disservices. The only thing keeping Beltran’s price low is his age — a younger outfielder coming off a combined .353 wOBA and 122 wRC+ in 1124 plate appearances over the last two seasons would cost a fortune. However, Beltran is old, and we do need to expect some decline. Let’s just not overstate it. At the rate he’s been going, Beltran is a slam dunk steal for $5.