Bearish on Aramis Ramirez
Heading into 2011, Aramis Ramirez looked like the perfect bounce-back candidate. His overall line was depressed by a pathetic BABIP, but most of his other peripherals remained consistent. With a little more luck this season, it was easy to see Ramirez rebounding in a big way. While Ramirez has been able to improve his line from last season, there’s one area where Ramirez’s production is unacceptable. Ramirez has only been able to club four home runs this season, and is on pace to post his lowest slugging percentage since joining the Chicago Cubs. Due to his recent power outage, and injury history, Ramirez is a player you’ll want to stay away from around the trade deadline.
It’s easy to see why owners might sucker themselves into believing in Aramis Ramirez. Most of his peripherals are hovering around his career averages and he’s been relatively healthy all season. While his average and on-base percentage are what you should have expected, Ramirez was drafted to produce power and RBI. Even though he’s hit near the middle of the Cubs’ lineup all season, Ramirez has only driven in 26 runs this season; good for 48th in the National League. The Cubs offense has looked equally pathetic this season, so even if there’s a mild breakout, Ramirez might not drive in as many runs as expected.
The main issue here is the complete loss of power. Honestly, it’s nearly impossible to explain why he hasn’t hit more home runs this season. Typically, that would mean that we should expect a bounce-back as the season progresses. The problem is, it’s already mid-June and Ramirez only has four dongers. In order to reach 20-25, he’s really going to have to turn it up during the second half of the season. It’s not impossible; as Ramirez clubbed 19 home runs over the second half of last season, but it seems like a lot to ask from the 32 year old.
Even if you buy into a second-half power surge (ZIPS ROS only calls for Ramirez to hit 10 more home runs), Ramirez’s injury history in recent seasons has to be a cause for concern. A dislocated shoulder caused Ramirez to miss nearly two months in 2009, and a thumb injury kept him down last season. He was also plagued by various nagging injuries which also limited his playing time and effectiveness. Ramirez isn’t getting any younger; he’ll be 33 before the month ends, and it looks like he’s bound to suffer from some type of nagging injury as the season drags on.
Look, it’s easy to look at Aramis Ramirez and envision a nice turnaround that helps you win your fantasy league. Resist the temptation to strike, though. Ramirez’s lack of power, age and injury history make him a risky candidate going forward. In order to meet his pre-season projections, Ramirez would have to absolutely mash over the second half. He would also have to avoid the nagging injuries that have taken in down in season’s past. Don’t buy into the hype; avoid Aramis Ramirez.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
I’m sorry, did I accidentally log on to Yahoo?
“Honestly, it’s nearly impossible to explain why he hasn’t hit more home runs this season. Typically, that would mean that we should expect a bounce-back as the season progresses. The problem is, it’s already mid-June and Ramirez only has four dongers. In order to reach 20-25, he’s really going to have to turn it up during the second half of the season.”
“In order to meet his pre-season projections, Ramirez would have to absolutely mash over the second half.”
Huh? Who cares about the preaseason projections? It’s almost mid-season! The 4 HRs YTD are a sunk cost. Are you suggesting that if he doesn’t hit 16-21 home runs in the last 60% of the season he’s not worth holding onto? Man, I wish you were in my league…
To bring this back to rational analysis, given his other batted ball statistics YTD, I have to think the 4.5% HR/FB rate is a fluke. The RBI issue is a real one for fantasy purposes – the Chicago offense stinks. But given the injury bug sweeping third base this year, Ramirez seems like a pretty good player to have in all but the shallowest of mixed leagues. In my 10 team mixed league, the best 3B available on waivers right now is… Adam Kennedy?
There’s hype about Aramis Ramirez?
Small sample size alert and all but surely it’s worth pointing out that 3 of those home runs have come in the past 12 games? No? That his ISO is .222 in June? That the guy is getting a little old and the cold in Chicago is hard on the bones in the early season’s going? That a bit of nice weather and less apocalyptic winds blowing from left field in Wrigley might benefit the man?
Career ISOs by month:
April .199
May .175
June .204
July .273
August .233
September .244
Maybe it means something, maybe it means nothing. Further study may be warranted etc. But it’s worth pointing out.
Here’s something that has nothing to do with anything,but I just have to say it–this guy must be the biggest dog in MLB. Last season when he trotted to 1st base the excuse was that he was injured. Now that he’s healthy, guess what? Same thing–makes me sick every time I see it…
I’m really glad I play in a fantasy league that counts “grit” and “playing the right way”, and that I don’t own Ramirez in that league.
I tend to disagree with the article as well, strongly. The statistics posted to this point by a player are completely irrelevant and inconsequential, in regard to those posted going forward. With Ramirez you have a historical consistent player, who is posting a .283 BA (Career .282), a LD rate exactly equal to that of his career number and is striking out at a remarkable 11 % on the season. He has 16 doubles on the year which project to a season total of 41, which would be a career high.
To be direct, in a game of feet and inches, if 4 doubles would have cleared the wall, decreased his doubles rate to a career average and additionally increased his HR total to 8, which put him on a track to 20 season HR, we wouldn’t be having this discussion today.
In season’s past, as is the case with many players, Ramirez’s bat has heated up in the mid summer months. He has 2 homeruns and 2 doubles in 36 AB already in June, which indicate that the power is still there.
I believe, going forward, it would be completely rational to expect- barring injury- 15 HR and 55 RBI. Although that production still doesn’t meet his typical preseason expectations of 30-100, the production from this point forward still makes him more valuable than all but 5 or 6 players at a very weak position.
It has to be said that when the comments towards a post are more informative, logical and insightful then there’s a problem with the author.
I would like to add that I find it hard to believe that anyone ‘suckered’ themselves into drafting Ramirez. In my 3 mostly competitive leagues he was drafted in the 9th and 10th (2 leagues) rounds. Regardless of any delusional preseason predictions he was most likely drafted after Alvarez, Reynolds and maybe before Peralta. Regardless of his lackluster performance I can’t think you’d do much better.
Wait until July and August and then see if you still want to bag Ramirez.
Actually, I would posit that it’s much harder to argue against an established hitter bouncing back than to fall back on his career stats and say he’ll be fine. We’re doing a service here by taking interesting players and arguing both sides of the coin, if you agree with the other side, that’s fine. No need to mock the author.
Undoubtedly, everyone respects that there are two sides to a story and certainly at least two perspectives on a particular baseball player. However, the article above seems to be an argument against Rami, just for the sake of an argument. There is very little evidence to support what he is saying. It basically says, “I dont knnoooooow….Ramirez is not hitting so well, and it’s been a while now, the homeruns aren’t there…and he’s getting old, and he might get hurt….I don’t think he’s going to do much.” To me, that is not a claim that should be allowed to stand on the this site, if the site is in fact about discourse.
Where’s the bullish stance, I think Aramis saw this post and decided to show Mr. Cwik up.
This article is rapidly becoming irrelevant.
Chicago offense isn’t that bad actually.
hey Cwik, have you seen Ramirez lately? Last week alone he’s hit 6 HR, 10 RBI and batted .393.
Things are going so well for Aramis that I actually saw him run out a ground ball the other day