Be A Spymaster
Last week, I wrote about collusion. The comments are a reminder that collusion is mostly a straw man. When it does occur, it’s usually a league conspiring against an individual rather than two owners working out a lopsided traded. Those seemingly one-sided swaps happen because somebody has divergent opinions from the fantasy norm. Either they really like a player who isn’t drawing much attention, or they’re eager to sell high on an established veteran who they think is due for a flop.
When a rival makes a game changing trade, it’s easy to throw a tantrum and whine-fest. Owners use the message board to campaign for a veto or start alleging collusion. This visceral reaction is a wasted opportunity.
When an owner makes a bad trade, you can count on maximum snark to be directed at him or her. This gives you the opportunity to be the nice guy (or gal). Instead of blaming and flaming, reach out with a reasonable tone. Become the person who offers solutions and ideas rather than anger.
Let’s say somebody in a 12 team redraft league trades Troy Tulowitzki for Wilmer Flores, Rob Refsnyder, and Maikel Franco. Let’s also say Refsnyder and Franco are in Triple-A. We can probably guess the reasons why Tulo’s owner executed the trade – he’s always hurt and the trio he’s acquiring are nice fantasy prospects. At the same time, most of us will cringe at that offer. Refsnyder and Franco don’t need to be rostered until they have a role with their respective clubs. So this is basically Tulo for Flores.
While everyone is bashing the owner for helping his rival, you swoop in with more positive sentiments. Complement the idea of trading Tulowitzki – it was a rational decision. Then casually mention a superior offer you would have floated if you knew a deal was close. It doesn’t matter if you would have made such an offer, just discuss one.
To this point, my advice can be summed up as “don’t be a dick.” However, the goal is to get this owner to come to you whenever they are close to making a trade. An owner who makes one bad trade is more likely to make another. You want to be on the receiving end next time. The end goal is to get most of your leaguemates to turn to you when they’re trying to make a trade.
By sticking your nose in most negotiations, you’ll receive the following benefits.
- You’ll occasionally acquire a player under cost.
- Information on your rivals. Often you can learn which teams are inquiring on a certain player and how they value that player. From there, you can infer their plans or perhaps step in with your own offer.
- First notice when an owner is conducting a fire sale.
- Ability to delay negotiations between two other owners.
- Price enforcement. Even if you don’t want a player, you can make sure a rival pays full price.
These are good advantages to possess. However, I must caution you: it may seem I recommend honing your inner sleazy salesman. My own personal approach is to be honest 80 to 90 percent of the time. There are some cases where it’s just not possible to be nice and truthful. Also, sometimes a piece of information is too important to reveal. This plan of ours requires trust, and that usually requires truth. If you’re habitual liar, you’ll have a hard time engendering trust.
You want to be your league’s spymaster. Gather as much information while divulging as little as possible. That doesn’t mean hoard all information – often it can be to your advantage to reveal pieces of the puzzle. Doing so can also reinforce that feeling of working towards the same goal.
In summary, today I’ve advised you to become your league’s spymaster. To do so, you should follow two simple tenets. First, don’t be a dick. Be the nice guy after a bad trade and you’ll make a friend. Second, stick your nose into everything. Use your status as a nice, trustworthy guy to your advantage.
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You are 100% right. Knowledge (and kindness) is power.
This sentiment, while nice, is ultimately futile. People who make terrible trades typically aren’t interested in being educated, and rather than reacting to your kindness as incentive to deal with you, they often view it as an avenue to be exploited. Last season I helped someone fairly new to fantasy baseball by providing him with custom rankings, answering emails/phone calls, and letting him borrow some of my preparation materials for the auction. During the season he made one indefensible deal after another with my competitors while constantly demanding my very best prospects from me.
It sounds like you were giving out way too much information while not getting any in return. With this strategy, you support their bad moves and discuss a potential offer you could have made instead for the same player. The other manager is likely to see this as an opening to increase his asking price in later trades, and thus, you get the information without actually giving up anything useful.
It sounds like you just gave away all of your tools to be kind and the guy figured you for a shmuck.
Praising someone’s bad decision just encourages them to make more bad decisions. The best way to make trades, exploitative or not, is to communicate with your fellow owners as often as possible.
Yeah, but don’t you want them to make their bad trades with you? Part of the gain here is that might be able to snag guys below market value, discover what other owners are trying to do, and possibly driving up the cost of your opponent’s potential costs to acquire the talent he needs.
Actually, no, I don’t. I want to play in leagues that don’t make indefensible trades.
On a different note, how would you combat owners who already have an information advantage.?
For example, in one of my leagues, there is a group of three or so that gossip to each other about every offer they get. So if you offer to one in that group, you have to expect everyone in that group to know about it within a few hours. And it is likely that a perceived low ball offer gets posted for the whole league to see.
Do I form my own little group as well? I’m against sharing offers I receive mostly out of principle, but also as strategic advantage, so I don’t know if I would want to do this
The obvious answer is to join the group. Is that an option?
no. If they let everyone in, it would lose its utility. One of the guys, most likely the ringleader, is hell bent on beating me.
There is definitely a first mover advantage to setting up shop as a spymaster. If you miss the window and can’t join them, then it might be best to use a strategy that doesn’t require many trades.
Misinformation is the best counter strategy.
how would you play it?
You might be able to start by telling them about false trade offers, add ‘mystery’teams vying for the same talent they are, if engaging with one you can try making ridiculous offers to the others, you could make decent simultaneous trade offers to all three and see if it can cause tension in a bidding war, send requests for information pertaining to the availability of decent players you have no interest in trading for.
Some one else might have better ideas, but these might help throw them off track as to what you’re pursuing and what’s being asked of you.
But you’d probably need to offer them some truths (like a heads up on a pretty much done deal) to make the misdirection look more plausible.
In my league I play the role of information gatherer and on occasion I’ve been burned when I’ve been provided false information.
Prior to the 2013 draft I was provided some false information as to who a friend was interested in drafting, which caused me to pass on drafting Matt Harvey early on, thinking I was safe to draft him a few picks later. The friend took Harvey before I had a chance to and I was pretty ticked.
If the group is full of gossips then you can poison the water on certain players, pump up the value of others, etc… just by talking with one group member.
Our league has a group chat text message where I spent most of July pumping up the value of Baez so that I could trade him a few weeks later.
Groups of people provide for lots of opportunities to move the market on players.
I’m not sure what planting misinformation would do besides make those 3 owners not trust me when I come to them looking for a category. That negative probably outweighs any positive to be gained by forcing one of the three to go out and beat me to the punch.
Then again, if I can’t ever trade with those 3, maybe I should just cut my losses and make one of them buy when it’s not necessary…interesting…
OT: That’s why you have to sprinkle in truths here and there to make the other stories seem legit enough that they’ll take them seriously. I like James’ idea of instead of spreading misinformation, contaminate the well with worst case scenarios, unfavorable comparisons even if they’re not the best comps, etc. And vice versa for your players. Not sure how well it would work if you’re not doing this in public, but I can imagine that to a degree it’s effective in private conversations.
why would you help anyone in your league? seriously? you are competing against each other.
if someone pulled off a trade like the one in the story, I would be nice while demanding an explanation of why this trade was executed and the logic behind it. especially in a redraft league.
This article is tremendous. I sent it to every Baseball and Football League I am in. Life and Fantasy is not all the same and fair, it’s how you operate in life/fantasy that allows you to enjoy/live life.
I feel that people who comment on trades are usually one of two things, 1) Superior: They feel superior to everyone else so if they don’t agree with or complete the trade then it’s garbage 2) Fairness: People who operate in the Fairness World are often folks who don’t put in the time for research or relationships.
Great article, you are giving away all my tactics! I love learning about a trade in the league and shutting it down or turning it to my advantage.