Batted Ball Distance & AL Starting Pitcher HR/FB Rate Improvers

Last year, I determined that pitcher batted ball distance allowed was correlated with HR/FB rate to a reasonable degree. This was fairly obvious, though the correlation was much lower than I expected, and less significant than that of hitters. It’s why I rarely discuss pitcher batted ball distance, along with the fact it doesn’t correlate from year to year all that well. But the correlation is there and it does convey meaning. We could run the same analysis for pitchers, comparing their distances with HR/FB rates to identify those due for improvement or regression. So today I’ll look at American League starting pitchers with highly inflated HR/FB rates, but distances that suggest major improvement is on the horizon.

While some of these players will obviously improve due to how high their HR/FB rates are, you might wonder if that improvement means a 10% mark going forward or a 14% mark the rest of the way. This analysis should help form those expectations.

AL SP HR/FB Rate Improvers

Name	HR/FB	Distance
Cole Hamels	25.6%	277.7
Kendall Graveman	23.3%	279.6
Carlos Rodon	17.0%	273.3
Nathan Eovaldi	15.6%	264.7
Taijuan Walker	15.2%	277.0
Dallas Keuchel	14.6%	279.3
Wade Miley	14.3%	281.3

Cole Hamels’s velocity is down a tick and he’s throwing far fewer strikes than ever before, but in no way, shape, or form, does he deserve a HR/FB double what he posted last and easily leading baseball. His batted ball distance is right around the league average, which suggests he has given up long bombs, mixed in with much shorter fly balls. Essentially, a high standard deviation of distance, which is likely very fluky for pitchers over a small sample. The sudden lack of control is still a major concern, but the home runs are not.

Despite pitching half his games in a pitcher friendly venue, Kendall Graveman has had severe issues with the long ball. Last year, his HR/FB rate sat at 13.9%, and this year it’s well above 20%. It’s not going to stay that high, of course, but his distance suggests it should really be around the league average. Of course, even if he cures his gopheritis, it still doesn’t make him any more than an AL-Only league option. He’s got the ground balls and a good cutter, while his slider has generated a nice SwStk% so far. But that hasn’t translated into strikeouts, thanks to a terrible splitter/changeup and frequent usage of a sinker. The other issue is that he just isn’t throwing strikes. His strike percentage has fallen below the dangerous 60% level, well below the league average around 64%. His 5.00+ ERA is going to get better as his home run issues get resolved, but he has much work to do to make him worthwhile in anything shallow than AL-Only leagues.

Unlike the above two names, Carlos Rodon’s distance is actually below the league average, which is good for a pitcher. So it beats me how he has managed to allow home runs at such a high clip. This is especially true given that Tony Blengino found that U.S. Cellular Field has surprisingly suppressed fly ball production so far this season. I think Rodon was overvalued heading into the year and while his improved walk rate looks encouraging, be aware that his strike percentage is nearly identical to last year…and well below average. His SwStk% has tumbled, so at this point, he doesn’t look like a very attractive buy low target. But the HR/FB rate should improve dramatically!

Nathan Eovaldi ranks 163 out of 178 in batted ball distance. Remember, the “worse” the rank, the better on this particular list. And yet, his HR/FB rate is 14th worst among qualified AL starters. Yankee Stadium hurts, but his away HR/FB rate has actually been higher. And for a change, his BABIP has actually dropped below .300 and LD% below 20%! So no more arguing that his fastball is straight and he’s so-called “hittable”. Despite such historic BABIP problems, Eovaldi has actually always suppressed home runs on fly balls, never posting a mark higher than 8.1%. This year his mark is exactly double last year’s. With his improved strikeout rate, he’s an excellent acquisition target.

For the second straight season, Taijuan Walker has suffered from home run problems. His distance, though, suggests there is nothing to worry about and as his ground ball rate has surged and fly ball rate declined, he’ll really enjoy things when that HR/FB rate improves. This “breakout” isn’t exactly real though, but it’s funny what a reversal of fortune could do for a pitcher’s surface results and value perception.

Soooo Dallas Keuchel’s distance drops by 19 feet, which is fantastic, but his HR/FB inches up by a percentage point. Over the majority of his career, he has dealt with home run issues, but we could essentially throw out his pre-2014 career, since he’s a different pitcher. I think the concerns stem from other factors aside from the home runs, such as a spike in walk rate and corresponding drop in strike percentage, along with a decline in fastball velocity. But really, this has been mostly bad luck, he’s not going to keep up a .351 BABIP. I’m surely not paying his overvalued pre-season prices, but I would explore buying here, depending on cost, of course. I’d need a reasonable discount, though, to bite.