Batted Ball Data and the 2018 Rookie Class
It’s been a banner year for rookie players in 2018. This season we’ve seen the graduation of the minor leagues best all-around prospect (after the obligatory service time manipulation), a two-way phenom contribute on the mound and in the batter’s box, a 19-year-old that began the year in A-ball, and the Yankees continue to profit from their embarrassment of riches.
Ronald Acuna Jr., Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar have all broken out. The rookie class has been a treat to watch for any baseball fan, and has likely lead to big fantasy dividends to any fantasy owner who was able to draft or pickup these hitters.
Aside from the production, these rookies have also excelled in many quality of contact metrics.
| Soft | Med | Hard | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | 11.7% | 41.4% | 46.8% |
| Shohei Ohtani | 9.6% | 49.0% | 41.4% |
| Gleyber Torres | 16.3% | 44.6% | 39.2% |
| LEAGUE AVERAGE | 18.0% | 46.5% | 35.5% |
| Miguel Andujar | 18.9% | 45.1% | 35.6% |
| Juan Soto | 21.1% | 44.0% | 34.9% |
| Barrells/PA | Average Exit Velocity (mph) | |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 9.5 | 92.5 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | 9.8 | 90.9 |
| Gleyber Torres | 6.2 | 88.1 |
| LEAGUE AVERAGE | 6 | 87.3 |
| Miguel Andujar | 5.7 | 89.6 |
| Juan Soto | 5.4 | 89 |
If you were to look at plate discipline numbers alone, the teenage Soto looks like the most polished and complete hitter. Soto has posted a wRC+ of 145 and an on-base percentage of .411 while hitting 15 home runs since his May call up. But using batted ball data, Soto is striking the ball with less authority than other breakout rookies on the list. His soft contact rate is over double that of Shohei Ohtani and nearly twice as high as Ronald Acuna Jr. And unlike Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres, he isn’t keeping the ball in the air – Soto’s groundball rate of 50.4 percent is sixteenth highest in baseball for batters with 150 plate appearances. Soto’s home run to fly ball rate is also nearly twice the league average at 22.4 percent. While 22.4 percent is high, he did post rates above 20 percent throughout his (brief) minor league career.
Soto’s hard hit and barrel rates suggest he may see his power regress (although it should be noted his xwOBA xSLG are not significantly lower than his actual numbers). Despite a potential lag in his home run totals, his ability to control the strike zone makes him more valuable in points leagues, and his inability to run means he is less valuable in roto.
Soto is still poised to be an outstanding hitter and a fantasy asset. And one that hits for at least some power, but depending on format, you may want to consider the others over him.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Acuna Jr., the consensus top prospect in baseball coming into the season, is hitting the ball harder than any other rookie on this list. Acuna Jr.’s average exit velocity of 90.9 miles per hour is top-50 in baseball (37) and he ranks sixth in baseball in barrels per plate appearance at 10 percent.
He’s also hitting the ball in the air with regularity (40.8 percent of the time). If there is a cause for concern, Acuna Jr. has struck out at a 26.1 percent of the time this season – although his second half rate of 21 percent indicates that he may be making adjustments as he acclimates himself to big league pitching. While there is swing and miss in Acuna’s game, his ability to hit the ball hard consistently suggests his power is not a mirage and that he is able to do damage whenever he does make contact. He might not hit seven homers in a month, let a lone a week, but Acuna Jr. is a legit power threat that could see gains in batting average if he is able to sustain his reduced strikeout rate.
The most intriguing part of Acuna’s game for fantasy is his 11 stolen bases (14 attempts) in 79 games. If Acuna continues to run successfully at this rate, his potential to provide 50 home runs plus stolen bases makes him a very valuable commodity in any kind of rotisserie league.
Despite missing most of the 2017 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the 21-year-old has enjoyed a very productive rookie season. Torres has slashed .269/.339/.495 with a 123 wRC+ and 20 home runs in 93 games with the Yankees this year.
Torres has done this while posting slightly above league average hard and soft contact rates. His exit velocity and barrel numbers are also above average. Torres has seen his walk rate drop and his strikeout rate increase since arriving in the major leagues, but it’s not unrealistic to assume that the youngster could continue to develop as a hitter and hit closer to the .285 he posted across five minor league seasons.
We’ve seen his power (and home run to fly ball rate) spike this season, but given he could be aided by his home park, Torres power gains are somewhat sustainable. He likely won’t be able to hit as many home runs as Acuna, or Ohtani but as a middle infielder who will have shortstop eligibility again next season, he may not have to.
Andujar is the least heralded of the 2018 rookie class but he has been an important part of the Yankees’ offensive dominance this season. Andujar has slashed .301/.332/.526 with a 129 wRC+ and 21 home runs in 120 games .
Interestingly, Andujar’s batted ball data is strikingly similar to Juan Soto’s. They posted very similar soft/hard contact rates and both players own average exit velocities around 89 miles per hour.
Where Soto and Andujar differ is in their plate discipline. Andujar both strikes out (17 percent) and walks less frequently than any hitter discussed. His 4.1 percent walk rate is 10th lowest amongst qualified hitters. Andujar’s groundball rate (46.1 percent) is also far closer league average than Soto’s. With a minor league high water mark walk rate of 7.2 percent in A-ball, Andujar will never likely be a big on-base threat. His ability to put the bat on the ball mitigates these issues but it does make him a less complete hitter than some of the other rookies.
Shohei Ohtani’s .276/.345/.547 slash line along with a 146 wRC+ and 15 home runs have quieted critics who believed his pitching abilities were far more advanced than his offensive ones. He’s even thrown in six stolen bases.
Ohtani has been making elite contact. He ranks 15th in average exit velocity (92.5 mph) and 9th in barrels per plate appearance (9.6). There is nothing that suggests he shouldn’t be able to keep up his current pace of production.
But there are two major issues that could affect Ohtani’s value as a hitter moving forward in fantasy.
Ohtani has seen time on the disabled list due to a UCL injury in his pitching elbow. An injury that seems to be getting worse – Ohtani suffered a Grade 1 UCL sprain in 2017 and this summer he was placed on the disabled list after being diagnosed with a Grade 2 UCL sprain. Ohtani has been trying to avoid Tommy John surgery, opting to use rest and plasma injections to repair his UCL, but given he is only 24-years-old and has shown the potential to be an elite pitcher when healthy, he may ultimately end up under the knife at some point.
The second issue is that Ohtani has yet to demonstrate he is capable of hitting left-handed pitching. Ohtani has slashed just .167/.265/.233 with a 36.8 percent strikeout rate in 68 plate appearances against lefties. In addition to benching the two-way phenom the days before and after he pitches, the Angels also seem to sit Ohtani against tough lefties as well.
Ohtani might be the second best hitter (for fantasy purposes) on this list but until we know he is going to be healthy and given the playing time to work out his issues against lefties, his offensive potential may not be realized.
Looking at batted ball data I would be most excited about Ronald Acuna Jr. moving forward. And that is before you account for his ability to contribute stolen bases. Juan Soto is a tremendous hitter, but one that may be more suited to points formats. Andujar and Torres may be more likely to contribute in average than Acuna Jr., but their quality of contact suggests Acuna Jr. might have the higher offensive upside. Ohtani is a bit of a wildcard – he has shown underlying skills that suggest he can be elite, but with his health and usage in question, he is a risk right now, especially in anything other than daily leagues.
These are all talented, top-100 hitters. And given they are all under 25 with less than 600 major league plate appearances to their respective names, skills development is likely in the cards.
This rookie class should continue what they started this season and provide plenty of top tier fantasy value moving forward.
Nick thinks running a Major League or fantasy baseball team is incredibly easy. Until he is handed one of those coveted GM positions, his writing at RotoGraphs will illustrate how to do it properly. Fantasy baseball trade consultations and anything else can be sent to nick.dika@gmail.com or tweeted to @nickdika.
“Acuna Jr., the consensus top prospect in baseball coming into the season, is hitting the ball harder than any other rookie on this list.”
Ohtani?
Love the article though. I haven’t really heard much about how the rookies are performing with regards to Statcast.
Thanks for reading! And you’re totally right – I should have qualified it as *minor league prospect*
It’s too bad Joey Wendle doesn’t make these lists. It seems like he’s just beyond making the list in every category. Gotta respect the fact he was a waiver claim this past offseason though.
You’re right he has been great and should be given more consideration. Interestingly, his barrels/exit velo numbers aren’t particularly strong but his FanGraphs batted ball data doesn’t look bad at all. I was a little unsure what to think of him as a hitter from a quality of contact perspective.
How about Jesse Winker? Offensively, he seems to stack up pretty well to the guys on this list. His soft, medium, and hard hit percentages are 11.8%, 44.3%, and 43.9%, which is pretty similar to Acuña’s. His exit velocity this year was 90.2 mph, which, again, is close to Acuña’s. He also walks at a higher rate than any of the mentioned rookies other than Soto.
I know he is extremely limited defensively and on the bases, but he appears to have the batted ball profile of Acuña with the plate discipline of Soto. Thoughts?
I’m pretty high on Winker too! I actually talked about him in a post last month on how I expect him to hit for more power.
https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/jake-bauers-and-jesse-winker-should-hit-for-more-power/
now do joseph mendle
If you change the primary EV variable of interest to average velocity on fly balls and line drives*, Soto has the second highest of anyone on the list at 97.2 mph. He is 15th overall in the league, above harper and nelson cruz. Ohtani is 11th and Acuna is 53rd. Gleyber and Andujar are outside the top 100. I think this metric better captures power by excluding primarily gb hitters from the upper tiers of the list — think Yandy Diaz. In any case, both metrics, avg EV, and avg EV on fbs and lds, are certainly valuable and correlated. Nonetheless, I think focusing on only avg EV significantly underrates Soto’s ultimate upside — he is barreling the ball the least out of everyone in the sample besides Andujar, but when he does barrel it up he’s hitting it extremely hard. He’s just hitting a lot of weaker grounders…I think this suggests a rawness to his game–and also an untapped upside. If you look at his earth shattering minor league ISOs, 400+, at age 19, it’s hard to imagine his power not developing to elite levels, and far outpacing everyone listed here except for maybe Ohtani–and Othani is far lacking in discipline
*average fb/ld velocity seems like a more theoretically sound variable to capture power, since hard hit grounders rarely contribute much to ISO, and rarely end up more than singles. In support, if you look at Podhorzer’s xHR explanatory variables, they all focus on events per fly ball, ie, average fly ball distance and barrels per fly ball–his explanatory variables don’t consider grounders because they are not really theoretically relevant to homeruns/power output.
Thanks for reading. This is a really interesting (and important) point you’re making. In terms of average FB/LD velo – is there any issue that not accounting for batted ball frequency creates noise in this stat? I was a little more concerned about Soto because he might not be hitting enough flys and liners to hit for the same amount of power as the other players even if he hits the ball harder when he does get it in the air?
You’re right that his minor league track record is pretty spectacular and I wouldn’t be surprised if he did take a step forward hit for more power than the other hitters.
Yeah you’re right to highlight soto’s batted ball distribution — he hits by far the most grounders (above 50%) of anyone in this group.
Exit velocity stabilizes at ~40 balls in play*, and Soto has hit 131 gbs, 71 fbs, and 45 lds this year, so Soto’s average exit velo for each different batted ball type should be relatively reliable at this point.
I share your short-term concern about Soto’s ability to hit for huge power with his current batted ball distribution, but he hit more fly balls in the minors, and gb, fb, and ld rates take longer to stabilize than exit velocity (gb and fb – 80 BIP, LD – 600 BIP). I basically agree he won’t for hit as much power as some of the other guys mentioned in the short-term, but small changes to his batted ball distribution as he develops could really take his game to unforeseen heights.
Plus, his power suggested by his fb/ld average exit velocity is really impressive**, and might suggest some positive regression in his hr/fb rate even if he keeps the same batted ball distribution — his average fb/ld velo is ahead of Christian yelich and Nelson Cruz — two of the leaders in hr/fb rate (yelich is number 1).
Thanks for the interesting read as always 🙂
*https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/28956/baseball-therapy-the-one-about-exit-velocity/
**if he can sustain it, and his minor league numbers and large enough sample of fbs and lds in the majors suggest he can.