In another edition of the mailbag, it’s time to answer a question from reader John R.:

I play in a 10×10 rotisserie league (all raw numbers, no averages), and have finished second for the past two years. I’ve been ok on picking keepers (drafting is another story), but this year it is down to three per team. I’m inclined to keep Braun and Kinsler as 1-2. My options for third are Votto, Granderson, or Gordon Beckham.

The three factors most affecting my thinking: 1. Kinsler hitting fifth; 2. Granderson hitting to left in New Yankee Stadium (and possibly losing ABs against LHP); 3. Beckham’s potential as a sophomore and positional flexibility.

I’d like to do the right thing this year, and any help would be greatly appreciated.

First off, can we all agree that keeping Braun and Kinsler is a certainty at this point? Yes? Good, let us move on.

Joey Votto’s numbers from last season are fabulous, but people often forget that he missed time with a stress related issue and could have put up even bigger numbers. He still hit 25 homers with a .322 batting average, adding in 84 RBI and 82 runs as well. However, a .373 BABIP is not going to happen again. Still, his average should sit above .300 in 2010, and combining that with his home run rate makes him a great first baseman.

Curtis Granderson in New Yankee Stadium is a scary thought. Plus, the lineup around him is fantastic, and should allow him to score and drive in runs at a level we’ve never seen. Granderson’s .249 batting average from 2009 is not cutting it, but neither is a .276 BABIP. He may not hit 30 homers again, but a conservative projection of 25 jacks and 20 steals with good runs and RBI numbers works for me, any day of the week.

It’s hard to know what to do with Beckham. First, he only came to the plate 430 times in the bigs last season. Second, he only had 59 minor league games under his belt, so we cannot go off of those numbers, either. Beckham’s .270 average from last season seems low, and is likely to rise due to a slightly low BABIP. Beckham did flash good power in college, so we can assume his 14 homers are also legit. He hasn’t been a huge base stealing threat in his career, but 10 steals is not out of the question at all. In the end, a quick prediction of a .280 average with 18 homers and 10 steals accounts for a good season to come.

But, which of the aforementioned three would you rather keep? I’m probably going with Joey Votto or Gordon Beckham, with Votto winning my heart in the end. Votto’s power production and high average will make him a highly covetable first baseman, of which the likes are hard to draft. Combining his numbers with Braun and Kinsler make your offense an immediate force to contend with.

Now that we know what kind of fantasy owners are out there, it’s time to discuss how to best humiliate, destroy and take advantage of the worst one of them. Today, how to beat the Dungeon Master. To refresh your memory, here is my crackpot definition of the Dungeon Master:

They play in so many leagues and attend so many mock drafts that you begin to worry about their safety. Chances are, if you are reading this blog (or writing on it), you may be the Dungeon Master. The Dungeon Master is always cool and collected at draft time. Even when his players aren’t making it to him in drafts, he has plan 1A at the ready. Be careful when trading with him, as he is probably looking to screw you over.

So, how do you beat the player who knows it all? There are a couple simple maneuvers you can pull on draft day and beyond to take down the Dungeon Master:

1. On draft day, you may have to reach a little for players. Since the Dungeon Master isn’t playing off the stock rankings, you shouldn’t be either. If you like a player that isn’t supposed to go for another 10 picks, but you don’t think he’ll make it back to you, take him. You cannot risk it. If you think a player is the best person left on the board, pounce on him.

2. Be social. The Dungeon Master fears four things in life: Sunlight, conversation, women and salad. He never goes out in public, so he doesn’t know how to react when he is taunted. He could take Albert Pujols with the tenth pick in the draft, and you should still heckle him. He may get thrown off his game enough to make a mistake. Don’t stop until he cries, drafts Carlos Silva, or wets himself.

3. Flooding his inbox with trade requests is another popular option. You can hope he has a moment of weakness and accepts, or simply hits the wrong button and accepts it anyway. Believe me, it’s happened.

4. Read RotoGraphs and study up enough to turn yourself into a Dungeon Master. It works, but only if you give up the rest of your life. And it’s worth it, I promise.

In the end, you are going to need some luck to beat a Dungeon Master. You have to hope his famously durable players succumb to crippling injuries (Brandon Webb) and for his team to slip in the standings. Finishing in second behind a Dungeon Master is nothing to shake a stick at.

The New York Yankees have added another veteran piece to an already stacked ballclub, signing outfielder Randy Winn to a one-year deal, worth a reported $2MM. 2009 was the first season since 2006 that Winn was not more than a fringe option for an outfield spot on fantasy rosters. From 2006 through 2009, here are the numbers Winn put up with the Giants:

2006: .262/.324/.396, 11 HR, 10 SB, 82 R, 56 RBI
2007: .300/.353/.445, 14 HR, 15 SB, 73 R, 65 RBI
2008: .306/.363/.426, 10 HR, 25 SB, 84 R, 64 RBI
2009: .262/.318/.353, 2 HR, 16 SB, 65 R, 51 RBI

Winn’s 2009 wasn’t a huge shock, but it was lower than it should have been. His line drive rate was actually at a career high (or at least since 2002, when our data begins) last year, and his speed score was above his career average. He should have a bit of a bounce back at the plate, and that is reflected in most of the projection systems:

Bill James: .276/.337/.389, 7 HR, 13 SB
CHONE: .259/.317/.364, 8 HR, 12 SB
Marcel: .276/.334/.396, 8 HR, 16 SB
Fans: .277/.326/.385, 5 HR, 12 SB

With a move to Yankee stadium and a great lineup around him, he will get plenty of runs, and the home runs should come easier. However, this assumes he will be the starting left fielder, which is something we just don’t know at the moment. The best guess is that Brett Gardner will maintain the starting left field job, but with the uncertainty that surrounds this situation, his ADP will likely drop, making him a possible bargain.

Keep a close eye on this situation, but Winn could receive playing time in more than one way. If DH Nick Johnson gets hurt, Nick Swisher could slide into first base, allowing Teix to rest as the DH, and placing Winn in the outfield.

If you are in an extremely deep mixed league, or moderately deep AL-only league, Winn might be worth a flier.

The biggest part of fantasy baseball is the draft. No question about it. So it is important that we understand who we are drafting with when we step into the room, be it virtual or physical. The easiest way to go about this is to group all players into five simple families, which are listed and explained below.

The Dungeon Master – You all know one of those nerds who is ready to dominate a fantasy league at a moments notice. They play in so many leagues and attend so many mock drafts that you begin to worry about their safety. Chances are, if you are reading this blog (or writing on it), you may be the Dungeon Master. The Dungeon Master is always cool and collected at draft time. Even when his players aren’t making it to him in drafts, he has plan 1A at the ready. Be careful when trading with him, as he is probably looking to screw you over.

The Cockeyed Optimist – This person runs around your draft room or lobby saying things like “I can guarantee Erik Bedard starts 30 games this year”, or “I see a breakout season from Yuniesky Betancourt.” The last time he won a draft, pigs were flying and hell was still defrosting. Let him do his own thing, and don’t bail him out of his bad moves.

The Cast Away – Straight out of a Tom Hanks movie, the Cast Away hasn’t been around (fantasy) civilization for awhile. In the past, he may have been a supreme player, but those days are behind him. The Cast Away will take big name players that have faded from glory, because those are the guys he is comfortable with and knows well. On occasion, he may even select a player who recently retired. If he somehow drafts a player he doesn’t know that you may want, take a run at fleecing him.

The Rival – This league mate always knows how to piss you off. He understands who your sleepers are, as well as your favorite players, and takes them earlier than you would just to push your buttons. He then purposes ridiculous trades, hoping you really want to have your favorite player on your roster. This owner rarely wins a fantasy league. Don’t encourage him by accepting any of his trades, and hope he isn’t invited back next year.

The Rookie – In the wild, The Rookie may often be referred to by his scientific name, “N00bulus Maximus”. When at the draft, he won’t deviate from the rankings provided to him by his most trusted website. Once the season begins, he can be easily convinced to trade his underachieving players that are sure to have a nice bounce back to glory. All is fair in love, war, and fantasy baseball, so exploit this player if you can by stealing away his players.

I’m going to be perfectly honest: I typically stay away from Johan Santana. I’ve only drafted Johan once in my life, and then I flipped him for Brandon Webb and Michael Young, and dominated my league. Another disclaimer – I’m a Mariners fan, so I’m in love with Cliff Lee at this point, as I’m sure many Phillies fans were last season.

This year, Johan and Lee have some extra intrigue surrounding each of them, and are being drafted relatively close to each other. Johan is coming off September elbow surgery, and Lee is in a new (old) league again with a new squad. Johan is currently the seventh pitcher off the board (41), with Lee being the ninth pitcher being drafted (51). But should Lee be going before Santana?

Johan has posted two nice seasons since going to New York. In 2008 he pitched a career high 234.1 innings, won 16 games and had an ERA of 2.53. I would call that a more than superb fantasy season, but a 1.15 WHIP and 7.91 K/9 dropped him down a bit. Last season, before his injury woes, Santana pitched 166.2 innings, won 13 games and had an ERA of 3.13. Once again, however, a 7.88 K/9 and 1.21 WHIP made that season less valuable. I find it strange that no one is talking about Johan’s drop in strikeout rate since he entered the NL. From 2002-2007, he never struck out less than a batter an inning, and now he is doing so consistently. CHONE projects his strikeout rate to be at 8.11, with fan and Marcel projects hovering around the same mark. But what proof do we have that his strikeout rate should rise back towards his career average (even if it is only a slight bump)?

Lee has been fabulous since his return to the bigs late in 2007. In ’08 he posted a 2.54 ERA (3.57 xFIP) and struck out 170 batters in 223 innings. Splitting time with the Indians and Phillies in ’09, Lee struck out 181 batters in 231.2 innings, earning himself a 3.22 ERA (3.69 xFIP). Looking at his 2009 as a whole, his strikeout rate was an improvement from 2008, but in reality it may not have been. His strikeout rate in the AL was worse than 2008, coming in at 6.34 per nine. The defense behind him and the spacious Safeco field will only help his ERA and WHIP next year, and Fans may have it right by projecting a 1.06 WHIP and 3.16 ERA.

Doing a quick comparison, which starter would you rather have? The pitcher that’s coming off surgery and has Jason Bay as their left fielder, or the pitcher with an outstanding defense and ballpark around him? I’d rather have Lee, but that’s not to say he’s being drafted too low. I think switching him and Santana in the draft order would be best, but in the end Santana just needs to move down below Lee on draft day.

With Aroldis Chapman inking with the Cincinnati Reds, both of baseball’s biggest pitching prospects have found homes for the 2010 season. Since both Stephen Strasburg and Chapman’s location is known, it makes it much easier to compare the two and evaluate when they should be drafted.

Chapman, a power throwing lefty from Cuba, is still raw. He will need to work on commanding all of his pitches, and no one knows just how long that will take. The Reds hope to fast-track him through the minors, but just what does that mean? Once again, not sure. My best guess is that we’ll see him in August and September, with only a 5% chance he’s up before the All-Star break (barring massive injuries to a huge amount of Reds’ pitchers). I’m really not all that impressed with or excited about Chapman, but many scouts are. Of course, who doesn’t love a lefty who throws hard?

Strasburg, the consensus number one pick of last year’s amateur draft, will likely be up sooner than Chapman. His powerful fastball (with good movement) is complimented by a sharp slider (some scouts say curve, but I see a slider) and changeup. Some scouts have said there may be some major arm injuries in his future, while others say his delivery is just fine. I’ve seen quite a bit of video, and I don’t see anything horribly wrong. He seems to open up a touch too early, but nothing that screams injury to me. I’d suggest he spends the first couple months in the minors, but it looks like the Nationals may let him run wild before that. I doubt he starts the season in the bigs, but he’s probably in the bigs a couple of weeks after he dominates in Double-A.

Both Strasburg and Chapman are going late in drafts (and not at all in a good chunk of drafts) according to MockDraftCentral. Chapman is currently the 70th pitcher off the board (284), with Strasburg as the 73rd pitcher off the board (301). Why is Chapman going so early? Strasburg is more polished and will be in the majors sooner, so I’d much rather have him. Guys like Francisco Liriano, Derek Lowe, Justin Duchscherer, and Brad Penny are going after the two young guns, and I’d rather have all of them. Strasburg is not a bad selection in the slot he is being drafted in, but Chapman is going far too high at this point. If you are in a keeper league, it’s not the worst pick in the world, but I think you should be able to get him later.

One of the premier fantasy shortstops from 2003-2006, Rafael Furcal has fallen off the map the past two years.

From 2003-2006, Furcal averaged 14 homers and 34 steals a year with a .289/.354/.433 line, numbers anyone would take from their starting fantasy shortstop. Furcal dropped off a bit in 2007, hitting .270/.333/.355 with 6 homers and 25 steals. Still not terrible numbers, but nothing compared to what he had done in the recent past. Part of his problem is 2007 was ankle injury that bothered him and forced him to the DL, and a lower back issue that popped up later in the year.

The big turning point for Furcal was that back injury, because it never got any better. He underwent surgery in May of 2008 after playing only 36 games. In those 36 games he looked tremendous, but a small sample size and fluky BABIP threw that right out the window.

Some owners, however, believed that a fixed back combined with a great month in 2008 would bring Furcal back to fantasy greatness. If you were one of those owners, stop reading this article now, climb onto your roof, and jump. Last year, Furcal hit .269/.335/.375, cranked 9 balls out of the park but swiped only 12 bases in 18 tries. Not good.

If I told you a random shortstop had ankle problems and back surgery, followed by a continued downward trend of his fantasy numbers, would you draft him? No, you wouldn’t. Don’t get sucked in by Furcal’s past returns, just stay away. It’s for your own good.

Right now, Furcal is the ninth shortstop off the board, being selected around pick 127 according to Mock Draft Central. Why do owners continue to reach for Furcal hoping he will fill their needs at shortstop? I’d much rather have Elvis Andrus (180), or Ryan Theriot (275) than Furcal, and they are being picked at a much more attractive position.

This story shouldn’t be anything special. Player A gets hurt, is a little old and doesn’t produce. Fantasy owners draft him high wishfully thinking he will bounce back. Don’t. When someone in your league drafts Furcal, look at them, point, and laugh.

One of 2009’s biggest surprises, Ben Zobrist was an afterthought and hardly drafted before the year began. Now, he is in everyone’s mind and has moved up the rankings fast. Most players that breakout the year before and are underrated become overrated almost overnight. Using ADP data provided by Mock Draft Central, we can easily take a look at where Zobrist is going, and whether he is over/under/correctly valued going into 2010.

At the time that I am writing this, on average, Zobrist is currently the 8th second baseman off the board and is being drafted at around pick number 60. The second baseman being drafted before him (Aaron Hill) is taken 12 picks ahead of Zobrist, and the second baseman after him (Dan Uggla) goes a whopping 27 picks later.

Because he was a utility man in 2009, Zobrist should also be available as an outfielder in all leagues. Currently, he is the 16th outfielder off the board, sandwiched between Curtis Granderson (56) and teammate B.J. Upton (60). Even better, Zobrist started 6 games at shortstop and played a total of 13 games at that position, giving him extra eligibility in some leagues (like Yahoo!) that may carry over into the 2010 season. If that is the case, Zobrist would be the sixth SS off the board, after Derek Jeter (51) and teammate Jason Bartlett (104).

It’s hard to put a price on a player’s ability to play two, and possibly three positions and provide a solid offensive return. Because we are talking about Zobrist, and this is FanGraphs, I suppose we need to talk some stats. Fine. Below are Zobrist’s stats from 2008 and 2009, along with the Fan Projections for 2010.

2008: .253/.339/.505, 12 HR, 3 SB, 32 R, 30 RBI, .255 BABIP, .311 xBABIP
2009: .297/.405/.543, 27 HR, 17 SB, 91 R, 91 RBI, .330 BABIP, .327 xBABIP
2010: .282/.378/.470, 22 HR, 14 SB, 94 R, 107 RBI

Fans are expecting a drop-off in power and steals, and a decrease in batting average. Not good. However, those numbers still aren’t terrible, and better than most second baseman on the market. For a shortstop, I like a little more speed and a higher average, but you can always compensate at other positions. As an outfielder, the numbers aren’t great. The RBI’s and runs are very good, but I’d rather play him at an infield position.

Overall, I’d be willing to take Zobrist in the middle round six, a little after where he is projected to go. For once, a breakout player doesn’t seem to be too overvalued going into drafts. Zobrist isn’t underrated anymore, and you’ll have to pay market value for his services on your fantasy team.

Lost in the Jason Bay, Marlon Byrd and Kelly Johnson signings, Miguel Olivo has agreed to a deal and will be joining the Rockies next year. The thought is that Olivo will be the Rockies backup catcher, but could he challenge incumbent Chris Iannetta for playing time?

After hitting .264/.390/.505 with 18 homers in 407 plate appearances in 2008, Iannetta was penciled in as the Rockies starting catcher going into the 2009 season. He started the ’09 campaign slowly, hitting .174/.333/.391 during the first month of the season. He bounced back in May, hitting 5 homers with a .276 average in 66 plate appearances. Late in the month of May, Iannetta hit the DL with a thigh strain. After his return from the DL, Iannetta’s batting average did not please the Rockies, and he lost playing time to Yorvit Torrealba. Iannetta played only 9 games in September and October, and ended the year with a .228/.344/.460 line with 16 homers in 350 plate appearances.

Iannetta’s LD% dropped from the 21.4% mark he posted in 2008, down to 16% in 2009. He also hit less grounders, focusing on getting the ball elevated in an attempt to hit more homers. His 14% HR/FB rate was down from his 18.2% mark he had in 2008.

While a drop off in LD% is not a good thing, most of Iannetta’s problems came from a fluky BABIP. His stats suggest an xBABIP around .306 last year, while his actual BABIP came in at a low .253 mark. Fans are currently projecting a .255 average with 21 homers for Iannetta, who is currently the 11th catcher being taken off the board according to Mock Draft Central’s ADP reports.

Olivo is another power hitting catcher, but doesn’t walk like Iannetta does. Olivo posted a .249/.292/.490 line playing for the Royals last year, adding 23 homers to the mix in 416 plate appearances. A career big league line of .243/.278/.423 is disgusting, but his raw power potential has attracted many teams to Olivo and given him a career for the last eight years. Right now he is the 16th catcher off the board according to ADP, but that is likely to decline now that he is no longer a starting catcher.

It seems that the Rockies intend for Iannetta to hold onto the starting role next year, but have a backup plan just in case. They don’t trust Iannetta for some reason, but if he can manage to keep Lady Luck off his back next year, Iannetta should be able to hold onto the starting catchers job and give good value to fantasy owners.

Seeing that it’s the Holiday season, we are making wishes come true and answering your fantasy questions from our mailbag. Reader Scott writes:

Greetings. I’ve got a tough decision to make in my 9-team NL-only dynasty roto league. Through some solid trades over the past two years, I’ve compiled a strong team, but I can’t decide on my last keeper. We keep 8.
Definites: Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Prince Fielder, David Wright, Matt Kemp, Tim Lincecum
Undecided: Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Pablo Sandoval.
With the hitters I’ve already got, I’m leaning toward keeping Johnson and Kershaw, even though it pains me to let Sandoval go. Though I am nervous about Johnson getting dealt to an AL team. And I’m nervous about Kershaw’s wildness. So, pick two from those three to keep.
We use standard 5×5 categories (Avg., HR, RBI, R, SB … ERA, WHIP, W, S, Ks).
Lineups: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, C, C, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Utility; 9 pitchers, no restrictions.
Also, each team keeps 1 AL player (any position) as a “DH” … and mine is Ian Kinsler.

You are right to be worried about Kershaw’s wildness. Even though Kershaw posted a 2.79 ERA in 171 innings last year, he walked 4.79 batters every nine innings, earning himself a 2.03 K/BB ratio and a 3.90 xFIP. While Kershaw may have improved his strikeout rate from his rookie year, his walks increased and his ground ball rate declined. The walk rate is not as bothersome as the ground ball rate, which dropped almost 10% down to 39.4%. A fluky 4.1% HR/FB% will rise, as will his ERA. His stuff is electric, namely his fastball. He has room to improve as a pitcher, but it is unlikely his numbers will be as good as they were last year.

As far as Johnson goes, I’d be more afraid of an injury than a trade. Johnson will likely pitch this season for Florida and be dealt before the 2011 campaign. While this isn’t the best scenario for a keeper, his numbers from last year make it hard to pass up another season of his production. In over 200 innings in 2009, Johnson posted a 8.22 K/9 and 3.29 K/BB, earning himself 15 wins and a 3.23 ERA (3.40 xFIP). He understands how to get ground balls, with a 50.3% rate last year and a career rate of 47.8%. He has a good fastball to go along with a slider and changeup. Johnson had elbow problems in early 2007, and had Tommy John surgery later in the season. If he can stay healthy, he looks to be on pace for another stellar season in 2010.

Sandoval is a solid hitter, but looks to have reached his power peak last season. He isn’t likely to do much better than his .330/.387/.556 line and 25 homers he hit last year. But, don’t expect a decline either. Because he should no longer have his catcher eligibility, his value goes down.

All three have their issues as keepers, but due to your abundance of hitters I would recommend keeping Johnson and Kershaw. While both have their problems, your team should be better off. If you can find a way to package Johnson and Sandoval in a deal for a pitcher, that is your best option. You wouldn’t have to worry about Johnson being shipped to the AL or getting hurt, and you would still get to keep two top pitchers to go alongside Lincecum.

Have a question for the RotoGraphs authors? Send it in to our mailbag (rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com) for consideration.