Author Archive

Third Base: July 13th

Because the rankings really haven’t changed since the last time we spoke, it’s time to take a different look at the third base position.

Omar Infante | Braves | 8% owned

He may not play everyday, but he makes the most of his time at the plate. He won’t draw you any walks, but his batting average keeps him relevant. In Yahoo leagues, Infante is eligible at 2B, 3B, SS, and OF. He is a nice plug-n-play guy if you are in daily leagues and check your roster a couple of minutes before games start. Great bench guy in most leagues due to his versatility, and hey, who doesn’t want an All-Star* on their roster?

Chipper Jones | Braves | 56% owned

In the last 30 days, Jones is batting .307 with 3 homers, 11 RBI, and even 2 steals. That’s a great way to enter the AS break for Chipper. He still has more walks than K’s this year, so he’s a stud in OBP leagues. His back flared up again on Friday, and while it’s going to be a constant issue, he played again on Saturday and Sunday. Keep your eye on him as a trade target if he keeps hitting after the break, or as a waiver pickup if he’s available.

Edwin Encarnacion | Blue Jays | 5% owned

After being DFA’d and sent to Triple-A in late June, Encarnacion has been recalled to Toronto and has performed adequately so far. Since coming back up on July 3rd, Encarnacion has hit .310 (BABIP fluke) with a homer. He has good power, and while he’s struck out in all but one game since returning, he’s a good bet to perform well the rest of the year. He’s not worth a pickup in standard leagues, but in SABR (advanced stats leagues) and deep leagues he’s worth a shot.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues. And yes, I stole this format from Axisa.


First Base: July 13th

Because the rankings really haven’t changed since the last time we spoke, it’s time to take a different look at the first base position.

Adam LaRoche | Diamondbacks | 48% owned

LaRoche is a notorious second half hitter, and I expect him to keep that streak alive this year. He might be dealt to a contender who needs a bench or situational bat at the deadline, so there is some risk involved with picking up LaRoche. His high strikeout rate will make it hard for him to raise his batting average, but he could come close to hitting 30 jacks this year. While first half and second half splits aren’t always the most reliable, LaRoche has proved me wrong too many times before. Give him a shot if you have a bench spot open in standard leagues.

Russell Branyan | Mariners | 12% owned

Even with the acquisition of Justin Smoak, Branyan will get playing time in Seattle. For the moment, he’s been playing DH while Milton Bradley sits with a sore knee. But, when Milton comes back, the team will have to decide what to do, and someone will be out of a gig (or Michael Saunders will). I doubt the M’s will bench Branyan, and as Pat Andriola notes, he is a candidate to be dealt at the deadline to a contender looking for some 1B or DH help. Wait and see what develops after the break, but Branyan is a good bet for power as long as he’s in the lineup.

Travis Ishikawa | Giants | 1% owned

Once Bengie Molina was dealt to the Rangers, Ishikawa became the everyday first baseman. I’ve always liked the guy (he’s from the Seattle area) and think he has the skills to be an average MLB first baseman. He’s been on fire, and while the All-Star break may cool him off, he’s looking great so far. In 71 plate appearances, Ishikawa is hitting 35% line drives, keeping the strikeouts down, and slugging .538. He’s going to be available in your league, so give him a shot in deep leagues if you want to improve your team’s AVG.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues. And yes, I stole this format from Axisa.


Trading: Types of Traders

This is article seven in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

If liked my preseason piece on the different types of owners, this is right up your alley.

The Sniper
The Sniper rarely makes an offer, but when he does, it’s dynamite. Reminds some of a cautious poker player, who must have a hand if he raises. He does his research, knows your team, and will always give you something to think about. If he offers a deal, he expects to get it done.

The Master of Propaganda
This trader also goes by his scientific name of “Das Goebbels”. Never offers a trade without writing at least a paragraph in the comments. Never includes any bad stats about the players he gives up, yet can always find the flaws in the players he is receiving.

The Gunner
Can’t go a day without studying an opponents roster looking for a trade opportunity. He’ll make an offer to every team when he wants to trade a player, and won’t stop until he gets a deal done. While he’ll annoy some, others will love him. Because of his willingness to deal, other owners may begin to give him first shot at players they are looking to deal.

The Con Artist
A deadly combination of The Gunner and The Master of Propaganda. Frequently tries to deal players if he finds out they’re injured before others do. His trades tend to get vetoed, and he always complains. His league mates hate him, but any new team won’t know any better. He’s been kicked out of countless keeper leagues, but dominates in newly formed public leagues.

The Mule
The most stubborn owner in the league. If he doesn’t like a deal, he will never make a counter-offer, instead forcing his counterpart to wonder where the deal went wrong. Playing the role of The Mule has shown to be a great negotiating technique when utilized properly.

The Counter-Attacker
Rarely initiates trade talks, electing to sit back and let others come to him. Once he receives an offer, he runs with it and tries to get a deal done. A combination of The Sniper and Counter-Attacker have been seen roaming the world at times, but are now only bred in captivity.


Trading: Keeper League Tips

This is article six in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

1. Long-term Relationships
This is the main difference between keeper and redraft leagues. If you get deep into talks with an owner and do something to piss them off, your chances of dealing with them in the future are diminished. In keeper leagues, you should be much more diligent and explain why you are rejecting every deal.

2. Buy Low More
I touched on this in my “On BABIP and Buying Low” article a couple of weeks back, but I’ll elaborate more. When you sense some regression is on the horizon, you have a much better chance of getting a good deal in keeper leagues. In redraft leagues, the player may never regress, and your stuck with a guy you have no use for. However, if you are certain the player is better than he’s shown, you have a much better chance to cash in if you’re in a keeper league. Even if they don’t return to normal during the current season, you could always hold onto them and wait for next year.

3. Weighing Next Year vs. This Year
I lied, this is a bigger difference than #1. While redraft leagues only have to worry about what the player will do the rest of the season, keeper league owners need to weigh a players current performance, their future performance, and draft pick value. For example, if you can make a deal to get a player you find to be almost as valuable this year, but will be cheaper to keep in the future, you need to pull the trigger. Don’t get carried away and deal everyone away for cheap keepers, but keep that factor in mind when accepting a deal.


Trading: Degrees Of Difficulty

This is article five in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

Some trades are easier to get done than others. Here we have the three categories of trades, listed from easiest to pull off to hardest to pull off.

Trading Stat Categories
If you’re in a H2H league, this won’t have much of an impact on you, and really doesn’t matter in Points leagues. But, in Roto leagues, this is a big deal.

This is the best example of general trade theory. If I have a glut of pitching and am dominating in those categories, I can trade an arm or two away to help improve my hitting. Chances are, I will only be able to pull this trade off with someone in the opposite position, so we both come out as winners (in our own minds).

Trading Different Positions
You probably think that trading away players who play different positions is one of the easiest way to get things done. But, it’s easier said then done. Not every owner understands the idea of “replacement level” (and z-scores), so completing a deal may take some convincing. Believe it or not, replacement level plays a major role when analyzing fantasy baseball. In fantasy terms, a replacement level player is defined as someone who is freely available on the waiver wire.

For example, a player who hits .280 with 15 homers is far more valuable as a catcher, compared to his value as a first baseman. Everyone knows this, but it can be hard to accept when talking trade. This is because finding a first baseman with those numbers isn’t all that hard, while finding a catcher with those numbers is.

While most people know and accept this theory, they may not be able to give up an OF who puts up better raw numbers for a catcher who puts up worse raw numbers. These trades take some convincing and explanation, but can get done.

Trading Within Positions
These trades rarely occur, and for good reason. It’s rare that I have a 3B that I hate, but you like, and I trade him to you for a 3B you hate, but I like. I’ve seen it happen a couple of times, but it’s very rare. It happens more often when trying to change your team’s Roto focus, but that comes back to the first grouping in this article.


Trading: Projections vs Production

This is article four in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

This might be “Public Enemy Number One” when an intelligent owner tries to deal with a, well, less intelligent owner. Smart owners will realize that they are trading for a player’s future numbers, not what he has done thus far. However, most owners want to trade players based on what they’ve done already, even if that’s not what they will be getting the rest of the year.

While using a player’s production to estimate future performance is one way of doing things, it is by no means the best way. When buying low on a players, sometimes it’s best to not tell the other owner that you think they will bounce back and be valuable, because they will make you pay for it. For example: Last season, I had a deal completed that just needed the final touches. The deal was fair as is, but I asked the owner to throw Nolasco in the deal (this was right after he was sent down to the minors), since he was planning on dropping him as part of the deal, anyway. He did, and because of it, the trade ended up being a steal. A player that the other owner had no problem giving up became the biggest part of the deal, for me. If he had known I was targeting Nolasco, the deal may have never got done because I wasn’t willing to pay an extra price for him.

Playing From Different Playbooks
This relates nicely to the points made above. One of the bigger hurdles to overcome in trade talks is being on different pages. For the most part, every owner is going to have a different view of every player. One might see him as a valuable commodity that they’d like to acquire, while others may see him as a pile of junk. If those two owners can get together, a trade can be made. But, that isn’t always the easiest thing. Once and awhile an owner will offer someone they see as a valuable piece to sweeten the pot, but you may not see him as someone you’re interested in.

Trades are the easiest to complete when you are either playing from the exact same playbook, or two polar opposite ones. Anytime you’re in the gray area, it’s going to take a little more work.


Trading: General Tips (Part Two)

This is article three in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here. To read Part One of the General Tips article, click here.

5. Alter Your Plan
Are you confused yet? We left off part one by saying that you should stick to a plan, but that can only go so far. Don’t be afraid to re-evaluate your plan if talks stall. But, don’t alter your plans just to get a deal done. Make sure the trade still makes your team better. Most of the time, altering your plans is done out of necessity, not choice. If you don’t alter you plans, a deal may have no shot of getting done.

6. Don’t Be Afraid To Walk Away
It is frustrating to walk away from a deal, especially if you have been negotiating for awhile. Having a long discussion end in nothing makes owners feel bad because they spent a whole lot of time and effort and have nothing to show for it. Believe me, I know. I just walked away from two long weeks of negotiations, and it doesn’t feel good. If you can’t get a deal done, use it as fuel to get the next one done. You’ve learned something about how other owners may view the pieces you are offering, so you can apply your new found knowledge to the next deal. The key to walking away from a failed deal is the ability to not take it personally. Segue!

7. Don’t Take It Personally
These deals aren’t personal attacks…usually. Once and awhile owners will try to pick on one another if they think they can fool an owner into taking a deal easier than they can fool another. Even then, it isn’t a personal attack, but an insight into how others value your baseball acumen.


Trading: General Tips (Part One)

This is article two in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

1. Know Your Opponent
You should have a pretty good idea of your opponents roster entering into trade talks. If you don’t, talks will be far more drawn out and difficult then they have to be. Know what you want from your opponent, and know what he needs.

2. Pre-Offer Communication
I tend not to make offers out of the blue. While there is nothing wrong with just proposing a trade with someone, I always try to send them a quick email to gauge potential interest first. This helps prevent an owner from feeling like you are trying to swoop in and grab one of their players without warning. However, if there is a trading block in your league, and the player you are trying to trade for (or trying to trade away) is on said block, then you do not need any warning before offering a deal, because had a chance to see it coming.

3. Slightly Lopsided Initial Offer
This goes back to our general trading theory. While you need to make an offer they will at least have to consider, you should always try to get the most value out of a deal that you possibly can. Make the offer that gives you the biggest benefit, and once and awhile, it will get accepted. Most of the time, however, it will be the jumping off point.

4. Have A Plan (And Stick To It)
Don’t just offer trades willy-nilly. Before you send a proposal, have an idea of what you are willing to give up. For further clarification, an example is appropriate: Before the season began, I offered  Joel Hanrahan/Jason Marquis for Andy LaRoche/Conor Jackson (20-team wRC/FIP league). I hoped he would take the deal the way it was, because I wanted a 3B and some LF insurance for my bench, and could afford to give up both Hanrahan and Marquis. However, going into the trade, I decided I was willing to give up Luke Gregerson instead of Hanrahan, if it came down to it. And, guess what? It did. We ended up completing a deal because I knew what I was willing to give up.

Part Two will be up tomorrow morning.


Trading: Theory

This is article one in a seven-part series on fantasy trading. To read the introduction, click here.

To start us off, we need to first understand the concept of “trading”. While I do believe everyone has an idea of the purpose of trading, I think it tends to get lost due to simple oversight and the tendency to get lost in the moment.

If anyone has taken even the most basic econ class, they will know exactly where I’m going with this. To put it simply, in a trade there is no real “winner” or “loser”. For a trade to occur, both parties need to feel like they are getting something of value in return, and giving up something they value less. While we, as third parties, may be able to step in and render judgement on who got the better deal, both parties will still feel like they’ve won. That’s how trading works, and it always will.

To put it in a less neutral, and more fantasy baseball relevant context, trading is giving up a player you don’t want (or need) for a player that your want (or need). All of you know this, but stepping back and looking at it from a third-person perspective is important.

When you offer a deal to a fellow owner, you are always trying to make your team better. But, so is the other owner. They certainly are not going to accept a deal if they think it makes their team worse, and neither would you.

Remember this the next time you offer someone a deal. Ask yourself “Will they perceive a benefit from this trade,” and you are far more likely to get deals done. Notice that I did not say to ask yourself “Will they get better”, instead “Will they think they are getting better”. While I don’t advocate being a scumbag and ripping people off, you can trick people into making trades that may not actually make their team better.


Trading: Series Introduction

As we get further into the season, trades are far more likely to happen. This is due to the lack of quality free agents, forcing owners to contact each other when trying to build a better roster. With trade talks heating up in real baseball, there is no better time to delve into fantasy trading. For the rest of the week, there will be a series of articles delving into different aspects of trading.

In part, this is a selfish exercise to review and reinforce ideas, but it really isn’t. Anytime we can review even the most basic of activities in order to better understand them, we are better off. For the most part, owners lost track of why we make trades, and how they come about. If we can get inside our opponents head and comprehend why they accepted or denied our offer, we have a better chance at completing a deal now, and in the future.

Because this series is meant to help you, the reader, I am going to cater to your needs. While the articles are already written and the topics decided, they are not set in stone. If you have a question at any point in the series that pertains to the subject at hand (and isn’t a “Should I trade Player X for Player Y” question, those are for chats), I will do my best to answer it directly or modify future articles to include an answer of sorts. If enough questions come in, there may be an addition to the series so I can address them in further detail. In fact, we can start right now. If you have a topic you think should be covered, put it in the comments of this post.

So, I hope the 2500+ words you will read this week will be used for good, and not for evil. If you want to know what’s coming up, the table of contents (subject to change) is located at the bottom of this post.

I: Basic Trade Theory (Tuesday)
II: General Trading Tips Part 1 (Tuesday)
III: General Trading Tips Part 2 (Wednesday)
IV: Projections vs. Production (Wednesday)
V: Degrees Of Difficulty (Thursday)
VI: Specific Keeper League Tips (Thursday)
VII: Types of Traders (Friday)