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The Man, The Myth, The Moustache

A couple of years ago, Collin Balester showed enough promise to make Nationals fans think he could be a part of their big league rotation. At twenty-one years of age, he performed very well in Double-A during the 2007 season, posting a K/BB just north of 3.00. The next year, during his second stint in Triple-A, he posted similar numbers outside of a higher home run rate.

When it came time to pitch in the majors, Balester’s stuff didn’t transfer over as well as anyone would have hoped. He struggled in over 100 big league innings, earning an xFIP around 5.00. Strangely enough, when he was sent back to the minors, he continued his struggles and effectively killed his chances of being a big league starter.

While pitching in the rotation, Balester’s fastball was hovering around 91 mph, but the problems came from his reliance on only two pitches, allowing hitters to easily guess what was coming. Something needed to change, and it needed to happen fast.

After starting the season in the Triple-A rotation, Balester was eventually moved into the bullpen, a move that gave him a chance to rekindle his career. He struggled out of the gate, but something amazing happened in late July. Balester was called back to the bigs, and something clicked for him. He had a brief stint in Washington where he looked great, striking out hitters again and keeping the walks to a minimum. He was eventually sent back to the minors, where he continued the trend.

Balester was recalled a couple of days ago, and picked up right where he left off. He’s been mowing hitters down with ease, looking like a big time asset in the major league bullpen. But, why is this happening?

It’s pretty simple, actually, and he’s been the template for many failed starting pitchers. Coming out of the ‘pen, Balester’s fastball has been sitting around 94 mph, and his two-pitch approach works much better. He has the prototypical frame of a power pitcher (6’5”), so no one should be surprised that he’s bringing the heat.

His sample size is small, but Balester has great velocity, tremendous movement on his curveball, and a chance to be a great major league reliever. At only twenty-four years of age, there is still plenty of time for him to have a major league career, and a sweet moustache should he decide to regrow it. If you’re in an NL-only league and are looking for some strikeouts out of your bullpen, give Balester a shot.


Corner Infielders: September 7th

A post holiday hangover edition of “Corner Infielders.”

Lyle Overbay | Blue Jays | 7% Owned
Overbay has been consistently good during his career, and has been valued as an above-average hitter six out of the last seven years. In a contract year, Overbay has turned up the power and could set a new career high in home runs. While his batting average isn’t great (and this is his first year with a sub-20% LD%), he’s still a decent fantasy producer. Overbay is a better option in AL-only leagues, but you can get away with him playing in a deeper standard league.

Todd Helton | Rockies | 24% Owned
If you can believe it, this is Helton’s first full season with an OBP lower than .380. That kind of consistency is hard to find, but Helton is one of the few hitters who have been able to produce at that level. With a four home run month in August, Helton may be showing us that the power has not completely disappeared from his repertoire. While he’s not the stud he used to be, he’s still worthy of a roster spot if you’re looking for some upside (Todd Helton and upside? Let the ridicule commence).

Casey Blake | Dodgers | 39% Owned
Blake’s long been a late round favorite of mine, and those days may not be behind him. While his numbers are less than stellar this year, Blake is still a consistent producer who’s cost is minimal. If you’re in a bind, give Blake a shot at third base.

Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | 250% Owned
Just a friendly reminder that A-Rod returned from the DL on Sunday, so don’t forget to put him back into your lineup.


Catchers: September 6th

A holiday edition of “Catchers,” coming to you in three…two…one.

Ryan Hanigan | Reds | 2% Owned
Hanigan is a favorite of mine, and like Chris Iannetta, he just needs to receive added playing time to be a viable option. Hanigan walks more than strikes out, hits line drives and can hit the ball out of the park enough to make him a fantastic catcher. If I can go off script for a moment and discuss real life baseball (gasp!), there is no way Hanigan should be riding the bench. The Reds are splitting starts behind the dish right down the middle (pun intended), so Hanigan is a nice guy to have if you have room for a second catcher, or are willing to take reduced production and lowered risk.

Yadier Molina | Cardinals | 60% Owned
The BABIP Gods shined favorably on Molina during August, allowing him to produce a monster .329 average at the dish. While there’s no reason to believe he can do it again, Molina was going to get some good luck eventually. However, outside of July, his line drive rates haven’t been anything special, leading to a sub-par season at the dish. He’s capable of hitting .275 in September, which is just high enough for a roster spot. During the last month of my season, I’d rather have a catcher with more upside than Molina. I usually hype players up, but Yadier should not be owned in 50% of leagues, let alone 60%.

A.J. Pierzynski | White Sox | 29% Owned
Guess who hit less than 13% line drives with a .346 BABIP in August? Pierzynski, that’s who! Besides cutting down on the strikeouts and the occasional dinger, Pierzynski hasn’t been productive at the plate this year. He’s not going to be sought after during free agency, but someone will take a chance on him this offseason. There’s no use owning him at this point, so don’t pay him any mind.


Waiver Wire: September 2nd

Some players to keep your eye on during the last month of the season.

Freddy Sanchez | 2B | 17% Owned
Seeing that he was a fantasy darling only a few years ago, I’m surprised Sanchez isn’t owned more. He had a big August, mostly due to a huge BABIP. However, his line drive rate was impressive the past couple of months, so the days of Sanchez hitting over .300 may have returned. He still won’t steal any bases or provide you with much power, but he is a low-risk option late in the year. Pick him up if he need help in the “runs” category, or don’t want to risk losing points in the batting average column.

Felix Pie | OF | 4% Owned
With playing time has come return for the Orioles, as Pie is showing some of the promise that made him a highly thought of prospect in the Cubs organization. Given a full year of starting, Pie may be able to produce a .300/15/15 season, good enough for a backup outfielder in most leagues. He’s done a great job lowering his strikeout rate, but his walk rate has suffered. While not a great option in OBP leagues, he’s worth your time in standard leagues.

Chris Narveson | SP | 2% Owned
Narveson has done a great job of not issuing free passes recently, even if he doesn’t strike anyone out. He’s nothing special, but he’ll give you a chance to rack up a couple wins during the last month on the season. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, you’re taking a risk, but he’s worth it.

Wade LeBlanc | SP | 11% Owned
The pitcher from Petco had a fantastic August, upping his whiff rate to over 10% and striking out close to a batter every inning. His ground ball rate stayed the same, so I’m loving LeBlanc right now. He doesn’t really have the arsenal for that high of a strikeout rate, but hovering around the 7.5 mark per nine isn’t out of the question.


Morrow’s Keeper Conundrum

In an effort to limit his workload this season, the Blue Jays plan on shutting starter Brandon Morrow down after Friday’s outing against the Yankees. Morrow has established himself as a very good keeper candidate with his strong performances these last couple of months, but is he worth holding on to if he’s going to miss so much time? Here are some things to consider when it comes to keeping Morrow after this season.

1. September Shutdown
I briefly mentioned this above, but it’s a big deal. When a player is scheduled to ride the pine for the last month of the season, it can really complicate things for some owners. For owners who have teams who aren’t in contention, it’s no big deal, but competing owners? That’s a whole other story. For a team trying to win a league title, having all hands of deck is important and cannot be overstated. Some races get really close this time of year, and missing out on five starts could be the difference between first and second place.

2. Losing Eligibility
Thanks to the Mariners jerking him around for so long, Morrow had SP and RP eligibility this year. The Blue Jays have been kind enough to take away the valuable opportunity to slide Morrow into a relief role on your roster. While this isn’t a big deal in daily leagues, weekly owners willing to punt saves and rack up innings will have to make harder decisions next year. While it seems you can always find a starter who’s relief eligible, it’s rare to find one with Morrow’s skills.

3. Innings in 2011
The Blue Jays have said that they try to keep starters from increasing their workload by more than twenty innings. When all is said and done, Morrow will have pitched about 150 innings this year, meaning he’ll probably be around the 175-185 mark next year. Since he turns 26 next July, the Blue Jays may be willing to let him pitch freely next season, but I wouldn’t count on it.

In Conclusion…
Overall, Brandon Morrow and his owners should be asking for some relief appearances during September, but the Blue Jays aren’t going to oblige. A part of me hopes the Blue Jays decide to place him on the DL with a phantom injury, but with roster expansion they won’t be forced to. It’s hard to make a judgement one way or the other without knowing every owner’s situation, and I haven’t even made up my mind yet in one of my leagues. Weigh the facts, and make a decision. That’s all anyone can ever ask for.


Sleeper Keepers

Now is the time of year to worry about who you plan on keeping next season. Since most league’s trading deadline has passed, you’re going to need to head over to the waiver wire to find available young pieces. Here are three guys who you should consider picking up and keeping in deeper or league-specific leagues.

Roger Bernadina | OF | Nationals
The Nationals called up Bernadina when their other right field options (notably Justin Maxwell) failed early on. In a little over 350 trips to the plate this year, he’s posted a triple slash of .271/.327/.433 with a .338 wOBA. It’s not a surprise that he’s stolen 13 bases, but his double digit home runs are a shock, seeing that he never hit for power in any of his minor league stints. Bernadina turned 26 in July, so the power may finally be developing. He’s never going to be a superstar, but a 15/25 season is a reasonable expectation if he gets steady playing time next year.

Gregor Blanco | OF | Royals
Blanco came over to Kansas City thanks to the Ankiel/Farnsworth deal, and has gotten steady playing time ever since. The lefty rarely hits fly balls, which allows him to maintain a high BABIP without a super LD%. He knows how to draw a walk, but a lack of power makes him only a league average hitter. He’s stolen 10 bases in under 200 plate appearances, and has only been caught once as a Royal. If Ned Yost gives him the same amount of playing time for a full season, Blanco could steal 25 bases without hurting your batting average, with the distinct possibility of swiping more than 30 bags.

John Lannan | SP | Nationals
While his overall numbers aren’t fantastic, Lannan has put up impressive numbers since being recalled in August. Lannan regained his control, while finding a way to raise his Whiff%, too. He’s maintained an impressive ground ball percentage through all of this, and I’m loving what he’s done in August. Be a bit more cautious with Lannan, but I think he’s figured something out on the mound, and could be a solid contributor next year.


Working Blue

Some thoughts on a couple of Dodgers to help wrap up the day. Please note that I will not actually be working blue during this article, because I like this gig and would prefer not to lose it.

Dodgers Closers

It’s been a wild ride, but it appears that Jonathan Broxton is back in the closers role. Joe Torre removed Broxton from the ninth inning almost two weeks ago, and after three dominant innings, Torre’s confidence in him was restored. He gave up two runs on Sunday, but he’s still a dominant pitcher on a .500 team, so don’t worry about him.

In his stay, Hong-Chih Kuo picked up a save on August 14th. Two days later, he gave up three runs and was charged with the loss, leading Torre away from the flame throwing lefty. Torre may have considered turning to Octavio Dotel, but he blew the game in the tenth inning a couple of days later.

The boys in blue have three hard throwing relievers who know how to strike batters out, and Torre isn’t afraid to turn to turn to any of them in high leverage situations. Broxton is the closer for now, but Dotel (36% owned) and Kuo (32% owned) aren’t bad guys to have on your roster.

Jay Gibbons | 0% Owned

A former two-and-a-half win player, Gibbons has been given a chance by the Dodgers. He destroyed Triple-A pitching this year, hitting 19 homers in under 400 plate appearances. While he hasn’t gotten too many chances in the bigs, he’s hit two homers in 22 trips to the dish. He had a great line-drive rate in the minors, and while it doesn’t feel like it, he’s only 33 years old. He could still be a major league contributor at the dish, and the Dodgers did well to give him a shot. While he won’t play everyday, keep an eye on Gibbons and add him if something goes down in the Dodgers outfield.


Third Base: August 24th

I wasn’t going to do one of these this week, but with A-Rod going down, here’s some thoughts on who you could pick up to replace him.

Wilson Betemit | Royals | 4% Owned

Dave talked about him yesterday, but he didn’t care enough to talk about his fantasy value. Betemit has always had the power, and just needed the playing time to be worth picking up. He’s playing every day now, so he’s worth your time. Due to his strikeout and low line drive rates, Betemit’s batting average won’t be pretty, so you have to hope his counting stats are good enough to make up for it. If you want to replace A-Rod’s power, pick him up.

Danny Valencia | Twins | 5% Owned

Valencia won’t give you much power, but he’ll keep your batting average at a respectable level. He’s a pretty low risk fill-in, so pick him up if that’s what you’re looking for.

Josh Bell | Orioles | 1% Owned

Bell is more of a high risk guy, who could really pay off if everything clicks. His bat was just OK in Triple-A this year, but after trading Tejada the Orioles wanted to see if he could handle the big show. He’s a switch-hitter with a great line drive stroke, but he strikes out too much to have a high batting average. He hasn’t shown a ton of power recently, and I don’t expect him to. He needs to work on his contact skills, but is a replacement option if you want to take a chance in a keeper league.

Don Kelly | Tigers | 1% Owned

Kelly has shown a ton of power recently, hitting 3 homers in his past 46 at-bats. The Tigers are giving the 30 year-old lefty some playing time, and he may be able to make the most of it. He’s eligible at first base, and in the outfield as well, so he can give your club some versatility. There isn’t much upside here, but he’s worth a shot in AL-only leagues if Betemit is taken.


Late Season Steals

Steals aren’t as tricky of a roto category as some would make it seem. Just like saves, if you want to be competitive in steals, all you have to do is choose to do so. Of course, you’re likely giving up a chance of homers and RBI, but it can be worth it. Make sure to check your league’s standings and determine which categories are within reach to help you climb the ladder. If you need steals the rest of the way, you’re in luck, because two speedsters are readily available.

Coco Crisp | Athletics | 28% Owned

Since returning from the DL, Crisp has been flying around the basepaths. Coming into Sunday’s action, he had stolen five bags in his last five games. He has 21 steals in under 225 plate appearances, and has only been caught twice. His career high for steals was back in 2007, when he nabbed 28 bases in 34 tries. If I were a betting man, I’d throw some gummy bears on Crisp setting a new career high during his shortened 2010 campaign. While his line-drive rate has been a problem, his BABIP is right in line with what we’d expect. A .285 average and a bundle of steals the rest of the way? Sign me up.

Eric Young Jr. | Rockies | 3% Owned

One of the best burglers in the minors is finally getting another chance to prove his major league worth. From 2006-2009, Young never stole less than 45 bases in a year, even reaching as high as 87 steals in A-ball during ‘06. During all of those season, he never batted lower than .290, either. Like Crisp, Young’s BABIP is where close to where xBABIP expects it to be. But unlike Crisp, Young’s batting average won’t help your team. Young’s second base eligibility makes him a nice replacement option for Dustin Pedroia owners, and he should probably be picked up in every keeper league deeper than a standard league.


Third Base: August 17th

Some notes on three third baseman to start your Tuesday.

Blake DeWitt | Cubs | 2% Owned

DeWitt was the main piece heading back to the Cubs in the Ted Lilly deal, and has made the Cubs very happy with his production thus far. His line drive approach and quickness will allow for his .335 BABIP to say relatively constant, keeping his batting average around .275. If he can cut back on the strikeouts by a couple percent, he will be an even better fantasy (and real life) option. He won’t hit for much power, or steal many bases, but he’s a good option if you are looking for batting average or you need help in an OBP league.

Alex Gordon | Royals | 19% Owned

Since being recalled from the minors, Gordon has hit four homers in 22 plate appearances, and even stole a base. His walk rate in that time has not been good, and his strikeout rate hasn’t been good, either. His BABIP has been low, compared to his line drive rate, so the batting average will come up a bit. His ability to fill both your third base and left field hole helps his value, and he’s still worth an add in deeper and AL-only keeper leagues.

Paul Janish | Reds | 0% Owned

Janish is starting to enter his peak seasons, so it’s now or never for the Cincinnati shortstop. Janish has always hit a strangely high amount of fly balls for a light hitting shortstop, but his BB and K-rates have been consistently good, and getting better. Like DeWitt, Janish is worth a shot in OBP leagues, though he should probably be slotted in at your shortstop position. If you’re in a keeper format, hopefully Janish shows enough on the field for the Reds to consider him for a starting role in 2011, but I wouldn’t count on it.