We got word the other day that Scot Shields is likely to retire after the season, which shouldn’t be a shock due to his poor performance this year. Shields has an ERA of 5.28 this year, and his FIP is even higher. It’s not a good way for the 34-year old to wind down his career, but this isn’t how we should be remembering him.

How many of you considered Scot Shields to be a dominant fantasy player during his peak? Don’t be shy, raise your hands. I’m not going to lie, I’m sitting here at my desk waiving my hand in the air (like I just don’t care!).

Shields was a player who had one skill that no one else seemed to be able to master: holds. That’s right, Shields was able to lock down the holds category for your squad, something that no one else was doing on a consistent basis (as I will show later). But not only did he give you a bucket of holds, he was a dominant reliever who would rack up other numbers for your team.

Some of us fantasy “gurus” preach the value of setup men, even in leagues where holds don’t count. You’ve heard it before, but setup men with high strikeout rates are extremely valuable because they will help your ERA and WHIP, and give you the occasional save. Shields was the epitome of this strategy, because he would pitch in 60+ games every year, and could really rack up the K’s.

But, back to that holds thing. Holds is a very volatile category, because players who rack up a lot of holds can often times move into the closer’s role shortly thereafter. Not many players have the ability to stay atop the leaderboards for so long while the rest of the leaders change, but that was Shields. From 2005-2008, Shields was the only player to have at least 30 holds in multiple seasons, let alone do it every year. I’d be willing to guarantee that he’s the only player doing that in any category.

Remember Shields as the dominant player that he once was, not the laughing stock he is today.

Edinson Volquez has had many ups and downs this season, including a steroid suspension that was ignored, a return to the bigs, a trip back to the minors, and then back into the big league rotation. Like Scherzer, Volquez’s brief minor league “tune up” did wonders for him as far as we can tell.

The last time someone talked about Volquez at this great site of baseball worship Volquez, the G-Unit said this about the Reds’ starter:

“To this point, Volquez has exhibited a power arsenal, if little idea of how to spot his wicked pitches.”

That is classic Volquez. Very good pitches, but problems putting it all together. But, he’s done a great job putting it all together recently, albeit in a very small sampling.

September
In three starts this month, Volquez has an xFIP of 2.95 thanks to more than a strikeout an inning, and a BB/9 under 3. While his strikeout rate is about right, it’s a surprise to see his BB/9 be so low, because even during his great 2008, Volquez’s control wasn’t great.

All of Volquez’s pitches have been thrown for strikes at least 60% of the time during September, with all of them getting whiffs at least 10% of the time. For good measure, he’s thrown his changeup 26% of the time, and has gotten a whiff on over 31% of occasions. That, my friends, is amazing, and probably unprecedented. Overall, he has lead the league in whiff% this month, coming in at over 16%.

Has Edinson Volquez returned to the form that made his 2008 so special? Could be, but we really don’t know. Of course, with any small sample comes the warnings (small samples may be dangerous to your health, consult a doctor if a sample lasts less than fours hours, etc.), but this has been a really good sign of things to come. He’s never going to be a pitcher with superb control, but he could be able to keep his BB/9 around 3.50 and be a very successful starter.

Volquez will likely be a key cog for in the Reds’ playoff machine, and having the opportunity to watch him pitch against good competition will be a big part in helping to determine his ADP next year. My guess is that Volquez will end up going under the radar, and could be a nice value pick in drafts as long as he doesn’t explode during the playoffs.

By now, we all know that Max Scherzer really struggled with his control during the month of May, prompting the Tigers to send him down to the minors to slightly tweak his mechanics and get him back on the right path. Everyone also knows that he had only two starts in the minors, was recalled, and has bounced back ever since. But, for me, “bounced back” isn’t a strong enough statement to describe his performance of late. Scherzer is probably one of the better stories in fantasy baseball this year, but he doesn’t seem to be getting enough credit for the clinic he’s put on in the last couple of months.

June and July
Right away, Scherzer started putting up numbers that owners (and the Tigers) had expected of him. He was striking out over a batter an inning, keeping the walks at a reasonable level, and not getting killed by the longball. These two months were nothing special (for Scherzer), but they proved that the ship may be righted for good.

August
Scherzer had some troubles keeping a high K-rate in August, but that was due more to bad luck than to diminished ability. He lowered his walk totals, and thanks to a .254 opponents BABIP, he turned in a nice and shiny 1.29 ERA.

September
This is where Scherzer has really shined. During the month of September, Scherzer has lowered his walk totals even further, but has been striking out more than a batter an inning once again. For a pitcher with a very high strikeout rate, a 4.88 K/BB is more than anyone could ask for. He has been beyond dominant lately. To prove a point, here is Scherzer’s last five starts.

9 IP, 9 K, 1 BB, 1 ER
7.1 IP, 6 K, 2 BB, 4 ER
6 IP, 5 K, 1 BB, 4 ER
8 IP, 11 K, 2 BB, 2 ER
7.2 IP, 8 K, 2 BB, 0 ER

Not only is Scherzer striking batters out at a high rate, but he’s also pitching deep into games, something that has become underrated in fantasy circles. In my mind, Scherzer shouldn’t fall past the fifth or sixth round next year, and should be the first Tigers’ pitcher off the board. That’s right, Max Scherzer is better than Justin Verlander, and should be treated like it.

Both Jonathon Niese and Madison Bumgarner are young lefties having solid seasons, and are going to be kept in a number of leagues. But, what if you have both and have to pick one over the other? We need to examine both Niese and Bumgarner and decide who will be a better player next year, and a couple of years down the road.

Numbers
Niese and Bumgarner’s numbers are nothing spectacular, but when you combine all of their peripherals together, you get a solid pitcher. Niese has a strikeout rate north of 7.5 K/9, with Bumgarner unable to reach the 6.5 mark. Since his strikeout rate is lower, Bumgarner’s walk rate needs to be lower, which it is. Bumgarner walks about two batter every nine innings, while Niese walks about three. This means that Bumgarner’s K/BB is significantly better, coming in around three, while Niese isn’t even at 2.5. That’s Bumgarner’s biggest, and possibly only advantage. Both get enough ground balls to keep me off their case, and Niese’s 47% isn’t leaps and bounds better than Bumgarner’s 45%. Both have FIP’s and xFIP’s close to 4.00, so it’s hard to get a read on who could be better based on the pure numbers. This is where a tool like pitch f/x comes in handy.

Arsenal
Guess what? Their arsenal’s are pretty similar, too. Even with all of the talk about Bumgarner’s velocity, his fastball is hovering around 91 mph this year, and that includes his two-seamer. Niese sits in the 89-90 range, and doesn’t throw his fastball for strikes as often as Bumgarner. Niese also throws a nice slutter, and that is his only pitch with a positive run value. He does a great job of controlling it and getting whiffs, so that shouldn’t be a shock. None of Bumgarner’s secondary offerings are anything special, but he does a good job of throwing them all for strikes. However, Niese has great movement on his curveball, and while it’s whiff% is nothing to write home about (although maybe I just did?), it could be special if he can do a better job of controlling it.

Conclusion
Bumgarner is only 20, while Niese is already the ripe old age of 23. They both have the same physical build, but they use it in different ways. Since I have to pick one, I’d take Niese over Bumgarner because I think he can learn to control himself and lower his walks while upping his K’s, and I don’t know if Bumgarner will ever become more of a strikeout pitcher. If you can, grab both, but I’d rather have Niese.

When the Arizona Diamondbacks received Daniel Hudson from the White Sox in exchange for Edwin Jackson, there were questions about Daniel Hudson major league future, namely about his potential. We knew what he could do in the minors, but needed an extended major league stint to truly value his long-term value.

From a less nerdy, and more scouty perspective, Hudson has a very low arm-angle when he pitches, especially for someone who stands 6’4”. While it’s not what I would recommend, it could be one of the reasons he fools hitters. His fastball sits at 92 mph, and he compliments it with a changeup that has some nice arm-side run. In fact, if he qualified, it would be the best change in baseball, thanks to a nice 26% whiff rate.

One of the biggest concerns surrounding Hudson was his extreme fly ball tendencies. While his tiny GB% will help his BABIP thanks to Arizona’s impressive outfield defense, it will lead to allowing more homers, a problem that while manageable, could be a big deal because of where he plays.

It really doesn’t matter what you look at, Hudson has been fantastic this year. He’s striking out almost a batter an inning, limiting the walks, and going deep into games. Sure, he’s had some luck on his side, but you can’t ask for much more from a pitchers who only 23. But we still haven’t answered the essential question: What’s his potential, and what’s his keeper value?

Like I said in Friday’s chat, I don’t think Hudson can be an Ace. However, he can be a good number two or three starter on a good team, and he’s a guy you will want pitching in the playoffs. While he’ll never have an ERA as low as it is now, he could easily win 12-15 games with an ERA under 3.50 as early as next season. Because he wasn’t drafted early this year, he has fantastic keeper value going into next year. He won’t be cheap in drafts, but if you already have him on your roster, keep him there as long as possible.

A player with a lot of hype surrounding him after the numbers he put up last year, Justin Upton has been a bit of a disappointment this year. Before the year began, some fantasy guru’s were projecting the ever elusive 30-30 from Upton, hoping that his raw skills would shine through and get him to that promised land. It hasn’t happened, to say the least. Upton’s numbers have dropped off in every standard category, hurting owners who pounced on him early in drafts.

Upton’s biggest problem this year has been the strikeouts. Because he had always struck out more than an average player, we knew this could happen, but a K% over the 30% mark is scary. While his K% has risen, his Whiff% has fallen, a strange occurrence. Upton has actually done a better job making contact this year, and while he may be letting too many pitches go by, I’d say he’s in for a lowered K-rate next year.

While he’s struggled with the K’s, he could still be one of a handful of players that could end up in the 20-20 club this year. It’s going to take a small surge over these next couple of weeks, but Upton could do it and no one would be surprised. What worries me is his success rate on the basepaths, as it’s dropped all the way down to 68%. Obviously, that needs to improve next year.

Could his down year be a great thing for future owners? Definitely. He could easily bounce back next season, and put up numbers closer to his 2009 campaign. I’m thinking he’ll end the 2011 season with a .285/25/18 line, which is impressive, but not overly so. I don’t think predictions of a 30-30 season were off base, but they may have been a tad optimistic. Temper your expectations when it comes to Upton’s 2011, but don’t forget the promise he’s shown and the potential he has.

Not many teams have the ability to replace an everyday player with his conceptual clone, but the Padres could have done just that when Tony Gwynn Jr. went down with an injury. Luis Durango, a 24-year old switch hitter, had been tearing up Triple-A pitching and is starting to see some playing time in the bigs.

During his first stint in Triple-A, Durango adjusted well, keeping his walk rate north of 10%, managing his strikeouts and running all over the basepaths. He stole 34 bases in 423 trips to the plate, though he was thrown out 32% of the time, a rate that will raise some eyebrows. Thanks to a line drive rate of 20%, Durango ended up posting a .300/.378/.325 line, coming in at a wOBA of .329. While he’ll never be an offensive force, as a tablesetter, Durango has his uses.

Unfortunently, we don’t have much of a MLB sample to go on when it comes to Durango. He only have 48 plate appearances this year, and those have been spread over multiple stints and pinch-hit appearances. While a line drive rate of only 2.8% is sad, a consistently good LD% in the minors is a much better indicator.

Could Durango have a place on your roster next year? Possibly, but he needs to receive more playing time. Because of their impressive outfield depth, the Padres have been filling the center field vacancy with a variety of options, Durango being one of them.

When you have wheels like Durango’s (seriously, if you’ve never seen him fly, watch this), you are a threat to be a fantasy stud someday. Keep an eye on him this offseason, and snatch him up if he can steal (pun intended) playing time in San Diego. If you’re in a deeper NL-only keeper league, he’s a solid option to stash away for next year.

With the end of (fantasy baseball) days coming, some owners will need to look towards next year. Here are three first baseman who are widely available, and could provide some spark for you in the coming years at a very cheap price.

Brandon Allen | D’Backs | 1% Owned
Allen’s game is very simple, and reminds you of another Arizona slugger. He will hit home runs, and strike out more than any human being should, and will have an average walk rate. The hope is that he can keep the batting average above .250, allowing him to at least have some value to your team. Allen’s not playing everyday…yet. Adam LaRoche will likely try to find another home this offseason, freeing up the first base job for Allen and his stick. If he can stay healthy next year and get the bulk of the playing time, I wouldn’t be shocked to see at least 20 homers with a batting average hovering around the .245 mark. It’s not great, but if you’re a rebuilding team, it’s a step in the right direction.

Freddie Freeman | Braves | 0% Owned
While Freeman’s minor league numbers are nothing to laugh at, just glancing at them on the surface doesn’t make you want to scream “top prospect!” However, Freeman’s minor league career consists of hitting well at levels that are advanced for his age, something that cannot, and should not be overlooked. He doesn’t walk as much as you’d hope, but he has limited the strikeouts nicely and has provided enough pop to have Braves fans dreaming about him in next year’s lineup. Freeman’s only 20, so he still has lots of room to develop as a player, and the Braves may not be ready to have him make the next step. Keep an eye on him (and Derrek Lee) this offseason, but Freeman is a nice guy to keep stashed in your system.

Justin Smoak | Mariners | 3% Owned
We don’t have much new information when it comes to Smoak, except an update on how he’s done in a new minor league system (and ballpark). Smoak has a .271/.377/.481 line as a Rainier, hitting seven dingers in only 159 plate appearances. If he can work on limiting his strikeouts, his line drive stroke and pop will translate over beautifully into the big leagues. The Mariners are going to give him plenty of chances to play everyday next year, and it could be a big one for the Smoak Monster.

The baseball world went gaga for Buster Posey after he was called up to the bigs and destroyed major league pitchers during the month of July, immediately after the Giants decided to deal Bengie Molina and play Posey everyday.

While players can have big months, Posey’s July was completely off the heezy. Not so much because of his .424 BABIP and .417 batting average, but because he hit seven homers, and another seven extra base hits. His wOBA for July? A whopping .487, with a 210 wRC+. Crazy, to say the least. There was no reason to think he’d produce at a level anywhere near his July, so seeing what he could do when his numbers stabilized was going to be crucial to estimating his value.

Even when he cooled down, his numbers from August weren’t shabby. He hit two jacks and nine doubles, kept his strikeout rate at a reasonable level, and continued to smoke like drives. You really couldn’t have asked from much more from a rookie catcher, but I’d bet some owners were disappointed.

Posey’s August was much more indicative of what we’ll see from him next year. Although, when you compare it to July, almost anything would have been. If you look closer, you can see that August was very reasonable and looks right, regardless of what you want to compare it to. His strikeout and walk rates were close to what should be expected, his BABIP (.318) was too, and he didn’t have an explosion of power.

It’s time to evaluate your keepers, so what should you predict for Posey next year? I’m thinking he’ll hit 17 homers with a batting average around .295, which is pretty darn good for a catcher. Odds are he’ll be overvalued next year thanks to his explosive July, but he needs to be valued based off his more reasonable August.

Embracing their youth movement, the Nationals have called up shortstop Danny Espinosa. Because of Ian Desmond’s place on the roster, Espinosa will be playing second base in D.C, and should find playing time on most days for the rest of 2010.

Rated Washington’s fourth best prospect by Marc Hulet, Espinosa has tools that fantasy owners should be drooling over. He has the ability to hit for power as well as steal bases, a quality rarely found in a middle infielder.

The twenty-three year old made his way through the Nationals Double-A and Triple-A affiliates this season, hitting at both levels. During his stint in Harrisburg (AA), Espinosa had an ISO of .202 and 20 steals in 432 trips to the plate. His overall numbers transferred over well to Syracuse (AAA), but his power production declined a bit, which is probably due to a small sample and an adjustment period.

Espinosa will never be a guy with a high LD%, so his batting average may pay the price. However, he’s fast enough to live with hitting grounders, and has the potential to strike out at a below-average rate, allowing Espinosa to keep a respectable batting average in the future. It’s unlikely he’ll ever hit .300, but a .275/20/15 line next year is reasonable and could be expected from the young switch-hitter.. While it’s nothing spectacular, it’s good enough to be owned in every league next year, regardless of his position in the middle infield.

If you’re in a keeper league, Espinosa’s your guy. Owners in redraft leagues shouldn’t be too eager to jump on him, but he’s a good bench option if you’re looking to fill out a roster with upside.