In case you hadn’t heard, it’s officially the Hot Stove season in ottoneu Fantasy Baseball, so it’s time to start talking trades with other owners in your league. The FanGraphs Staff league is already buzzing with rumors and conjecture, but most of those have to do with what Eno is hiding under his hair. That aside, three trades have already been made, and I was proactive enough to be involved with two of them. Let’s take a look and talk strategy, shall we?
Now that the 2011 fantasy season is all but over (don’t forget to play ottoneu Pick Six during the postseason!), we have an opportunity to look back and see which players did what, and where each player should have been drafted if we knew exactly what was going to happen this year. With that in mind, it’s time to produce some retrospective values and rankings for you to enjoy and reflect on.
Earlier this morning, I outlined changes made to the FVARz system that I introduced in February, and that system is what was used to produce these rankings. Please be aware that these are retroactive values only, and while you are free to use them for predictive purposes without adjustment, I wouldn’t recommend it. So, without further ado, let’s do this thing.
You may remember that earlier this year I put together a series of three posts outlining a system for objective fantasy player rankings and valuation. The system was (and still is) titled Fantasy Value Above Replacement, or FVARz for short. Some flaws were pointed out in Februrary, and it’s about time I recognized them and corrected the system to allow it to be even better and more accurate.
The major flaw that was pointed out was the way I was adjusting for position. A players’ raw stats were only being compared to others at his position, instead of the entire player pool as a whole. After the changes to the FVARz system, this is no longer the case. Players raw stats are now compared to the entire player pool, while hitters and pitchers are separated for obvious reasons.
Last season, the first five pitchers off the board were Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee and Jon Lester. But what will 2012 look like? Let’s take a guess.
1. Roy Halladay. Nothing has changed here. Halladay is consistently brilliant and he will be the first pitcher drafted because of his long track record of dominance and his placement in the NL.
– Brandon Morrow is a cruel temptress, am I right? He’s like a siren, drawing you closer and closer with his gorgeous numbers only to let you crash into the rocks below. His strikeout rate is pristine, his walk rate is under control, and his HR/9 is manageable. Even his WHIP is better than average. But the ERA. Oh, the ERA. Morrow may be the pitching equivalent of someone like Jay Bruce; someone who gets taken too early every year because of his potential only to disappoint. But like Bruce, eventually he’ll probably put together a stellar season of production and make someone very happy.
– Is there any way Starlin Castro turns himself into a .300-15-20 guy next year? Because that would sure be sweet. I don’t think owners have noticed that Starlin has hit for more power this year and stolen over twenty bags, but I’m sure it’ll be advertised enough this offseason that he won’t be a value pick come draft day.
– If MLB.com is to be believed, the second game in the Red Sox-Orioles double header will be one for the ages. Brian Matusz, owner of a 9.84 ERA, will face off against John Lackey, who sports an ERA over 6.00. If you’re a betting man, I’d suggest putting all your monopoly money on the over. It doesn’t matter what the line is, because no line could be high enough for this game.
After struggling in his past few outings, it appears that Alexi Ogando is going to pitch the rest of the way out of the bullpen. Luckily for you, I have some thoughts.
– The Rangers haven’t made a final decision on this matter yet, but I’m willing to bet they ultimately decide to bulk up the bullpen instead of letting Ogando struggle in the rotation.
It’s been about a month and a half since the Cardinals dealt Colby Rasmus to the Blue Jays, so why not check in on that whole situation?
– Since the move, Jon Jay has responded by hitting around .300 with a few homers in just over 30 starts for St. Louis. Unfortunately, he’s not really stealing bases, so it looks like he’ll simply be a batting average guy next year. It shouldn’t be too hard to snag him late in drafts, just don’t expect more than .290/10/5.
– Unofficial crowdsourcing question: Will Dan Uggla be overvalued next season because of his hitting streak, or will he be undervalued because of his extremely slow start? You may not say he will be valued appropriately, because we all know that never happens.
