• The MLB.com writers put together an article on the prospects who might contribute the most in the majors. For example, here is the write-up on Bubba Chandler.

Pirates: Bubba Chandler, RHP (MLB No. 15)
Chandler served notice at the end of last year at Triple-A with a 1.83 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, .183 BAA and 12.4 K/9 rate over seven starts for Indianapolis, and it wouldn’t have been surprising to have seen him up last year to help out had the Pirates hung around the playoff race. It remains to be seen if the club will be willing to bring him north on Opening Day, but the fact that they didn’t get the extra PPI Draft pick from Paul Skenes winning Rookie of the Year because they didn’t bring him up right away and he ended up being awarded a full season of service time anyway will be enough of a lesson learned.

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American League

Angels

• The owner mentioned Christian Moore as someone who could contribute this year.

“I’m really happy with the way it’s going,” Moreno said. “Perry has done a good job, Wash is really focused. I like the coaches. Just sit and watch these young guys throw bullpens and where they came from and what programs they came through. And we have a second baseman [No. 68 overall prospect Christian Moore] who just won a championship in college. You have to continue to put up good building blocks. And then the reality is being able to supplement everything.”

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American League

Angels

• Mike Trout will play right field this year.

Mike Trout had a meeting with Angels coaches yesterday, and they determined he will play right field moving forward in an effort to preserve his body.

— Alden González (@Alden_Gonzalez) February 17, 2025

This move doesn’t change Trout’s value but does for the other outfielders. Who will play centerfield? Jo Adell? Mickey Moniak? Will Taylor Ward continue to play every day in left field? Read the rest of this entry »

• It seems that MLB.com will be updating their injury report pages this season. A reminder that these are not articles but rather pages where info can be added or deleted anytime. For example, here is a report from the Cubs site on Nico Hoerner likely missing the season’s start.

2B Nico Hoerner
Injury: Right flexor tendon
Expected return: Early 2025
Status: Underwent surgery on Oct. 11. Currently in Arizona training and doing light baseball activities. Rehab could linger early into the season

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• MLB.com ran an article with all the projected starting lineups. For example, the author sees the Marlins starting Matt Mervis at first base.

MARLINS

Lineup
1. Xavier Edwards, SS
2. Connor Norby, 3B
3. Jonah Bride, DH
4. Jesús Sánchez, RF
5. Dane Myers, CF
6. Matt Mervis, 1B
7. Otto Lopez, 2B
8. Kyle Stowers, LF
9. Nick Fortes, C

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The smiles appear before the response.

Ask a few Orioles hitters for their immediate reactions to news that the club is moving in the left field wall, and their approval can be seen on their faces.

The above quote came from the Orioles caravan and got me thinking about how projections incorporate three new park changes.

I’ve seen the park changes referenced in articles and pods for reasons to fade or target certain players. I lean on projections and assume that they incorporate dimensions into account when they create their projections. If the changes are already accounted for, I don’t want to overrate affected players. After looking over various projections, most seem to take the changes into account, but some haven’t yet. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• Tim Anderson spent his time off fixing some bad habits with his swing and regaining his confidence.

Anderson said things started to change after a leg injury he sustained early in the 2023 season with the White Sox. He took time off to retool his mechanics and clear his head and believes he’s now in a better place.

“I started creating bad habits with my swing,” Anderson said. “I had that injury to the leg, so once I came back, I lost the feel, I lost the touch, I lost a lot. Everything felt different. So, it caused me to start doing the wrong things and start creating that bad habit. I got caught up in that bad habit and that became a norm. That’s what caused the frustration. So, once I got released, I got in the lab and I’ve been training to break that bad habit.”

Anderson admitted it was tough mentally and that he lost confidence, but it was important for him to take time away from the game to get everything back in order. He never seriously pondered retirement, though he felt discouraged and frustrated because of his struggles.

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It’s time to dive into more hitter projection comparisons after examining playing time a while back. In this article, I’ll show which projections are best in the standard roto categories (R, RBI, HR, SB, and AVG) and at the end, look at ways playing time projections could be improved.

For all the background information on the test I used (RMSE) and data sample reference the first article. These tests take forever to run and at some point, I kept getting the same answers (smartly aggregating the projections), so I stopped running any new ones for hitters. Here are the results for the tests I ran.

Test 1: Batting Average

The only hitter rate stat, batting average, begins the analysis.

While some individual projections are near the top, the averages and aggregators stay strong.

Test 2: Home Runs

Here is how the projections performed when looking at the raw number of home runs.

With Paywall #7 and Marcels crushing the playing time estimates, it’s no surprise they are at the top. And here are the home projections prorated per plate appearance.

The big surprise was that Marcels remained near the top even when the home runs were turned into a rate stat. The aggregators held up but weren’t as strong as previous tests.

Test 3: Stolen Bases

Here are the stolen bases projections ranked by the raw number

A new order of projections on this raw stat … well besides the averages performing near the top. Here they are as a rate stat.

That’s some domination by the aggregators by taking the top five spots.

Test 4 Runs plus RBI (R+RBI)

I combined the two because the results were consistent (aggregators kicking ass) and I just wanted to see if any of the results stood out like with stolen bases.

Nothing changed. Correctly guessing playing time allows a projection to dominate these rankings. It’s time to move on.

Conclusions on Hitter Projections

The answer is simple, get an aggregation of projection. ATC and Zeile already do the combination. Or a person could use Tanner Bell’s projection aggregator to personally control the inputs and weighting.

Additionally, if combining projections, I would not pay up for any with Razzball, ZiPS, THE BAT X, and Davenport all performing great.

Test 5: Where Projections Miss

Note: I cut and diced the available information in what seemed a 100 different ways. The following are the two best examples I found for why projections miss. I’m sure there are better ways to improve projection playing but I haven’t havent figured them yet.

From some of my unpublished work, I have determined that projections miss based on age, previous playing time (proxy for health), and talent (projected OPS). I wanted to find out why Marcels performed better than the standard projections. In 2024, here are the players the 4 Big Projs projected for more playing time than Marcels.

A table full of prospects (e.g. Carter, Cruz) or injured players (e.g. Lewis, Hoskins). This verifies some of my previous findings that players with checkered playing histories miss their playing time projections.

Dropping the playing time on hurt guys is not hard but it is tougher with guys like Elly. If he plays every day, he’s a steal.

For the next example, I grouped hitters by their Marcel playing time projection and combined plate appearances from the previous two seasons. Then I compared our 2021 to 2024 projected Steamer plate appearances to the actual number. Here are the results.

Steamer’s plate appearance projections perform great for regulars or bench bats. The players between those two are the toughest to estimate with over 500 PA in each previous season needed for a solid playing time projection.

While I focused on our Steamer projections, all of the other projection systems over project playing time compared to Marcels. They likely had the same issues. A fantasy manager might need to some way take into previous playing time while making future estimates.

For right now, I don’t know the right answer. As a group, it is a little embarrassing that a simple formula kicked everyone’s collective ass in playing time. In the previous article, I mentioned adding in a computer projection (e.g. Marcels) to temper expectations. I stand by that observation. For now, that’s all I can recommend.

• Some teams are considering signing Lance Lynn as a closer.

Lynn, 37, has not pitched out of the bullpen since 2018. But his agent, Kevin Lustig, recently informed him that several clubs asked if he would be interested in pitching the ninth inning.

“He said, ‘I got a couple of weird calls today.’ I was like, ‘What? Did someone ask me for a minor-league deal?’” said Lynn, who remains a free agent. “He started dying laughing. He was like, ‘No, they asked what you thought about being a back-end guy, a closer.’

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American League

Angels

• Scott Kingery ignored the Phillies’ advice in 2024 and did his own thing.

Kingery, with nothing to lose, said he did things the way he wanted to in 2024. With that came an uptick in production. His walks decreased significantly. The enhanced aggressiveness resulted in 12 more homers, 25 more hits and 20 more RBI in just 39 more at-bats compared to the year prior. But also zero call-ups. Not even a promotion back to the 40-man roster.

Last season in AAA, the 30-year-old hit .268/.316/.488 with 25 HR and 25 SB in AAA.

Astros

• Zach Dezenzo has been playing in the outfield after primarily being a third baseman.

Another option for left field is prospect Zach Dezenzo, who spent a month playing winter ball in Puerto Rico to get more at-bats and some reps in left field. Dezenzo, ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Astros’ No. 6 prospect, has played mostly third base in the Minor Leagues, along with some time at second and first base. He was a shortstop when he played at Ohio State University.

While in Puerto Rico, Dezenzo played eight games in left field, 10 at first base and one at third base. The Astros have since signed Christian Walker to play first base, but there remains a real opportunity for Dezenzo to make the club as a contributor in left field.

“The whole goal for me going out there was to get reps in the outfield and get more at-bats,” Dezenzo said. “As you guys know, I missed some games earlier last season [with a wrist injury]. I was in rehab until mid-June. And getting those at-bats, continuing to play, was big. I get better when I’m playing. So I think being in those game environments, atmosphere and situation was good for me.”
…
“Zach Dezenzo played some really good left field there,” Espada said. “I think he’s someone who is going to go to spring, and I’m going to give him some looks in the outfield. I already had that conversation with him. I really like his potential, his athleticism, his bat.”

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