Here is my best estimate on which hitters gained or lost fantasy value because of trades. Over the next few days, I’ll note any changes at the end as news comes on how teams plan to utilize each player. Also, several teams are going to need to promote some players to fill their roster.

Note 1: This ranking is by how much a player’s value changed, not the best players. Randy Arozarena and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are the top two talents, but since both were already regulars hitting near the top of lineups, their fantasy value after the trade didn’t change much.

Note 2: All these trades and roster moves happen in the last few hours and days. I’m sure some batters will play more or less than I predict. My goal here is for a quick look.

Major Upgrade

Miguel Vargas: Goes from a short-side platoon role to a top-of-the-order bat.

Austin Hays: Goes from a short side-platoon bat to what seems a full-time gig with the Phillies. Check back after a week on the playing time situation to ensure he’s not in a platoon.

Jonny DeLuca: Three starts (one vs LHP) since the Arozarena trade.

Dillon Dingler: Detroit called up Dingler to catcher with the trade of Kelly. Batting .308/.379/.559 with 17 HR and 5 SB in AAA.

Alex Call and Harold Ramírez: Both from zero contributions to regulars. Keep an eye on Call. He might end up in a platoon.

Marco Luciano: Sounds like the Giants are going to give me full-time at-bats as note here (7/31 update):

The Giants recalled Luciano, who hit six home runs and has a .416 on-base percentage for Triple-A Sacramento in July while drawing as many walks as strikeouts. Zaidi and Melvin made it clear that Luciano will get everyday at-bats and most of those opportunities will come in Soler’s place as the DH.

Upgrade

Joey Loperfido: Should get most of the DH at-bats in Toronto but might not hit enough to stay in the majors.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Better park and surrounding cast with the Yankees.

Amed Rosario: Rosario’s value will drop going to the Dodgers but he has a huge range of outcomes based on his usage. The team needs middle infielders and outfielders and he could fill in at any position. He’ll start as the team’s shortstop until Edman and/or Betts come off the IL.

Rays infield including Taylor Walls, José Caballero, Curtis Mead, and Junior Caminero: After trading away Paredes, the third base job opened up. Knowing the Rays, it won’t be one player getting all the playing time but spread around.

Alejandro Kirk: With Jansen gone, he’ll get most of the catcher reps.

Marlins Outfielders: Nick Gordon and Cowser got the first starts. Dane Myers is an option when he comes off the IL (update 7/31)

Slight Upgrade

Heston Kjerstad: More playing time but still splitting time with the other outfielders.

Jorge Soler: Better ballpark. Maybe a better lineup.

Lane Thomas: Team upgrade.

Bryan De La Cruz: Small team upgrade.

Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan: With Edman gone, both should see more time at second base. I’m not sure they will play enough to be rosterable in any league except NL-only.

Neutral/Unknown

Josh Bell: Might be taking over for Walker (oblique) at first base.

Ty France: On on the Reds with no obvious roster spot.

Joey Wiemer While all played in the majors, there are no obvious roles for them right now. I could see Norby and Stowers move up as plans come out of Miami.

Kevin Kiermaier: A part-time player moving on to be a part-time player on another team.

Mark Canha: With Soler traded away, Canha will get the DH at-bats and might cycle them with the other outfielders.

Austin Slater: Weak-side platoon bat with a career 122 OPS against lefties and 84 OPS against righties. Could slide into Austin Hays’s previous role.

Dylan Carlson: A short-side platoon bat with the Cardinals and remains in the same role with the Rays.

Sight Downgrade

Danny Jansen: He seems to have moved from being the primary catcher to the backup (7/31 update)

Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Looks to be a super sub. When healthy with the Blue Jays, he was playing every game. He might not with the Pirates.

Jesse Winker: I don’t think Winker will get more plate appearances with the Mets than with the Nationals and he will almost certainly run less as the Mets have nearly half (76) as many SBs as the Nats (147).

Justin Turner and Randy Arozarena: Park downgrade.

Isaac Paredes: Park downgrades his pulled home runs.

Paul DeJong: In my first take, I might have been too harsh on DeJong calling him Royals’ luggage boy. He seems like he’ll be playing more than I expected (7/31 update).

Christopher Morel: I suspect he’ll sit more as the Rays take advantage of matchups.

Tommy Edman: The Cards seemed to love Edman and had no problems batting him at the top of the lineup. With the Dodgers, I’m not sure how much he’ll play with the Rosario add, a hot Gavin Lux, and Mookie Betts returning.

Cal Raleigh and Mitch Garver: Fewer DH at-bats with Justin Turner.

Andy Pages, James Outman, Jason Heyward: These three played regularly but will start in fewer games with Edman and Rosario in the mix.

Downgrade

Alex Verdugo: He might sit against lefties (career 113 OPS vs RHP, 79 OPS vs LHP) with Chisholm playing in the outfield.

Johan Rojas: Will be splitting time in center field with Brandon Marsh. I might be ranking him too high.

Carson Kelly: Goes from full-time at-bats with Detroit to the backup job with Texas.

Eloy Jiménez: Huge team improvement but Orioles are loaded with hitters so I don’t think he’ll play much. Originally, I didn’t take into account how much of a playing time hit it will be for him (7/31 update).

Mitch Haniger: Fewer DH at-bats and Arozarena will steal outfield starts. Might belong in Down Hard.

Michael Siani and Tommy Pham: The pair will split time in the outfield, killing their values.

Connor Norby: Demoted to the minors (7/31 update)

Down Hard

DJ LeMahieu: The only reason he gets any playing time is the $35M left on his contract.

Nick Ahmed: He’s gone with the additions of Edman and Rosario and with Betts returning.

Adam Duvall: Soler is going to push him to the bench.

Tyrone Taylor: Addition of Winkler pushed him into a short-side platoon role, at best.

Jhonkensy Noel: Addition of Thomas killed his playing time.

7:32	Jeff Zimmerman:

Read the rest of this entry »

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and there are ten of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

Note: I know that the information here could be dated the minute it gets published because of a trade. This will be one weekend to track the news and overreact to weekend lineups.

American League

Angels

• They have too many guys at second, third, and designated hitter with one of Luis Rengifo, Brandon Drury, Anthony Rendon, and Willie Calhoun sitting each game.

• Mickey Moniak has started in 15 of 16 games in centerfield. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

White Sox

• Drew Thorpe is throwing his changeup at different speeds.

“He learned his changeup plays three times in a row to certain guys,” said White Sox manager Pedro Grifol, commending Thorpe for greater fastball command since Arizona put seven earned runs on him on June 16. “Normally, that doesn’t happen because you don’t throw the same pitch three times in a row.

“People make adjustments. He learned today he can with the changeup if he continues to mix the speeds of the changeup. There are some really good learning moments.”

Read the rest of this entry »

7:32	Jeff Zimmerman:

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Over the break, I’m going to run a few quick studies. If you want to request, add it to this Twitter thread.

I am running a few quick fantasy baseball studies over the next few days. I'll take suggestions. The two I have planned:

1. If a hitter's AVG is below his projection, how much rebound is expected?

2. How much does a month's ERA/FIP/xFIP matter when looking forward?

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) July 16, 2024

The final study I’ll run is looking at how much stock should a person have in a month of pitching stats. I wanted to understand these correlations since I quote them a ton. The usual suspects top the list with an interesting find on WHIP projections. Read the rest of this entry »

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Astros

• Yainer Diaz is getting some reps at first base.

Since Abreu’s departure, Singleton is hitting .301/.374/.411 in 83 plate appearances. Whether the Astros believe this is sustainable may dictate their deadline approach at first base. That the team hasn’t ruled out catcher Yainer Diaz as a possibility at first base is intriguing, too.

Diaz took groundballs at first base during the team’s last homestand before the All-Star break, though that itself isn’t newsworthy. Backup catcher Victor Caratini’s imminent return from a hip flexor strain could free Espada to experiment with Diaz at first base, perhaps putting him in a platoon with Singleton on days he does not catch.

Read the rest of this entry »