Uneven Trades
Most owners this season have filled their DL slots and probably have an injured player or two on their bench. As these players return from the DL, it might be a good time to look to make a trade that is a little lopsided, but benefits both parties.
When Albert Pujols fractured his wrist this last weekend, fantasy owners scrambled to find a replacement for him. Besides finding a replacement, owners may be wondering what type of production they should expect from him once he returns later this season. Also, owners may want to know what to expect from him on draft day next season. The following is a quick look at players that went on the DL and their production level before and after their wrist injury.
Recently, I published an article here at Fangraphs listing a few pitchers returning from the DL and their fastball speeds. One commenter, Eddie from NYC, noted:
Matusz has had exactly ONE start in 2011. Drawing any conclusion from one start is waay premature …. If his velocity stays at high 80s, yes, we should be concerned, but he’s only had one start.
I could not find via the interwebs how a pitcher’s fastball velocity in their first appearance back from the DL compares to their velocity the rest of the season. So I did a little research.
Some pitchers have made a living throwing slower, but generally the faster you throw the better you perform. As Mike Fast noted at the Hardball Times, starters expect their RA/9 innings to increase by ~0.25 for every 1 MPH decrease in fastball speed. The increase is ~0.40 RA/9 for relievers. Besides seeing an increase in ERA, the pitcher’s strike out rate decreases as their fastball speed goes down. So faster equals better for these purposes.
To get the needed data, I looked at pitchers that returned from the DL in 2010. I wanted to see how their fastball speed from a few appearances or starts (1 or 3) could help predict their fastball speed later in the season. I looked at pitchers that returned from the DL and made at least 6 starts or appearances over the rest of the season -or- before they went on the DL again (K-Dice, I am looking at you).
Originally, I planned on looking at all the pitchers returning from the DL, but the values effectively became unchanged after 25 samples (even though I did double that number). I will later finish collecting all the data later as I have 300 pitchers to go through and it takes 2-3 minutes each pitcher to collect the needed data. I try to have some kind of life outside of my basement.
Here are the results from the data I have collected so far:
Initial Game
Top Value (Initial Game Average – Season Average): 2.33 MPH
Average Speed: 0.15 MPH
Lowest Value: -1.75 MPH
StdDev: 0.80 MPH
3 Game Average
Highest (Initial 3 Game Average – Season Average): 1.04 MPH
Average Speed: -0.06 MPH
Lowest: -1.45 MPH
StdDev: 0.55 MPH
The overall average fastball speed is not much higher in the first start compared to the rest of the season. Pitchers don’t really see a bump up or down in speed as the season goes on compared to their first few games.
The spread in values are smaller after having 3 games worth of data than after 1 game. With only 1 game, the Standard Deviation (SD) is 0.80 MPH, but it is 0.55 MPH after 3 games. For those without knowledge on advanced statistics, 68% of all values will be within 1 SD and 95% of values will be within 2 SDs on statistics that are normally distributed.
For example, in his first game back Brian Matusz averaged 86.6 MPH. So there is a 68% chance that his fastball speed over the rest of the season would be between 86.6 +/- 0.8 MPH (85.8 to 87.4) or 95% of the time between 86.6 +/- 1.6 MPH. He has actually maintained the average of 86.6 MPH over the season so far. The effects from the ~3 MPH decrease from last season can be seen in a career high ERA of 5.60 which weirdly matches his current and career low K/9 of also 5.60.
As a general rule, one game of fastball speeds gives some useful information, but after 3 games a pitcher is generally throwing within 1 MPH of what they will average the rest of the season.
When a hitter comes back from the DL our natural inclination is to compare their current performance to their previous performance to see if their talent level has changed. A small sample size of data is used in this exercise, which makes it tough to figure out how much to weigh the new data. To help with this problem, I have created a spreadsheet to take a small sample of a hitter’s stats and estimate their ability.
It may look like the only way for Dan Uggla’s season to head is up. That is probably true, but he also has some underlying issues, beyond a low BABIP, that are causing his bad season.
Tier 1A
Robinson Cano
Tier 1B
Rickie Weeks
I still have Cano as the top ranked 2B based on his previous seasons and overall health. Weeks is producing a bit more in 2011 compared to Cano, but as long as they are this close, I will put Cano first.
Tier 2
Ben Zobrist
Ryan Roberts
Ian Kinsler
Kelly Johnson
This Tier’s rankings, and the rest that follow, are very fluid based on the needs of your team. If your team needs a few more SB, but can afford to take a hit in AVG, you may look at Kinsler -or- you could be looking for a more rounded producer like Roberts.
Also, I am putting players with multiple position eligibilities higher in the different tiers. With all the trips players have made to the DL this season, it is nice to have the extra flexibility to move players around.
Kelly Johnson was let go by many teams because of his early season struggles. It looks like he has forgotten the early struggles and is back near the top the 2B rankings.
Tier 3
Dustin Pedroia
Martin Prado
Brandon Phillips
Neil Walker
Danny Espinosa
This Tier was tough for me to rank. Pedroria could have easily been moved to Tier 2 (based on previous good results) with Espinosa being moved down a Tier (based on little previous production). As a whole, an owner really can’t go wrong with any of these players.
Tier 4
Michael Young
Placido Polanco
Howie Kendrick
These 3 are similar in that they hit for AVG, have few HR and SB and are qualified at several positions. This would be a nice group of players to have on your bench in shallow leagues. They can fill in when other players on your team are not playing for any reason.
Tier 5
Chase Utley
Darwin Barney
Mike Aviles
Allen Craig
Adam Kennedy
Maicer Izturis
Michael Cuddyer
Brett Lawrie
Daniel Murphy
Gordon Beckham
Eric Young (Jonathan Herrera)
Currently there is a large drop off from Tier 4 to 5, but some names do stick out.
Utley has just gotten back from the DL with subpar results. As his production increases, he will quickly move up.
Cuddyer (0.264 AVG/7 HR/3 SB) is having a similar year to Neil Walker (0.265 AVG/8 HR/2 SB) in non team related stats. Cuddyer only has a total of 40 Runs + RBIs, while Walker has almost twice that number (73). If the Twins offense gets clicking Cuddyer has a great chance to improve.
Colorado is back with Eric Young at 2B. He will be a great source for SB, if he keeps his job. I believe he shouldn’t of lost it to begin with and his replacement, Herrera, shouldn’t have lost it this time.
Tier 6
Jed Lowrie
Aaron Hill
Alberto Callaspo
Ryan Theriot
Orlando Cabrera
Jamey Carroll
Justin Turner
Freddy Sanchez
Ty Wigginton
I expect to find most of these players to be owned but on the bench. It is tough to tell how players are being used with all the multiple position eligibilities I am actually looking at what the availability level is for certain positions in different sized leagues for my Saturday article.
Tier DL
Brian Roberts
Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Frustration Tier
Dan Uggla
Ryan Raburn
Chone Figgins
These 3 are completely under producing and driving their owners crazy this season. I am not sure I would actually trade for any of them, but would see if they become available on the waiver wire for a chance they break out. With these three, the only way is up.
Grady Sizemore (knee) – Grady has accumulated 117 plate appearance so far this season with generally decent results. The 28 year old has been on the DL twice (knee injuries) and has missed 154 games since May 19th 2010. This season he has been productive with a 0.266/0.316/0.569 triple slash line. Since returning from the 2nd stint on the DL, he has performed worse (0.226/0.273/0.355) than before (0.282/0.333/0.641).
Grady has always been a productive hitter, but this season the fantasy production is coming from an increase in power, not from getting on and stealing bases. His 0.560 SLG and 0.294 ISO are career highs. Most of the extra power is coming from home runs. He is hitting more fly balls (50%) than any time in his career to go along with another career high 16% HR/FB ratio. His fly ball distance has increase by about 30 feet from 2 years ago. Also, the increase in power can be seen since he has hit more doubles (14) than singles (9) this year.
His desire to hit the long ball has affected his OBP (not this avg this season). He is swinging at more pitches (49% in 2011 vs 43% for his career) and making less contact (72% in 2011 vs 82% for his career) this year. The free swinging nature has led to a 4% walk rate (career low) and a 30% strike out rate (career high). The lack of walks has led to a 0.316 OBP which is 36 points below his career numbers.
Finally, the production from his speed looks to be dead. 0 stolen bases. 1 caught stealing. Out of the 14 doubles he has hit, he as not legged one out for a triple. His 2011 speed score of 2.8 groups him with the catching trio of Kurt Suzuki, Miguel Olivo, and Yadier Molina. His bum knee has drained his speed, for now, and I would not count on any substantial SB in the future.
The Indians seemed to have noticed the lack of speed. After coming off the DL the first time, he only batted in the lead off spot. Since returning from his second trip, he has batted in the 4th or 5th spots in the lineup. Since he is no longer leading off and looks to be protecting others in the lineup, I would expect to see a drop in the Runs score, but an increase RBIs.
Sizemore looks for now to be a different player since he has come back from the DL. It is not a bad change, unless you drafted him looking for a higher OBP and some steals. Right now he has the chance to improve with better speed and strike zone judgment -or- decline because of a lose the power. No one really has a clue (except David Allen and he won’t share his crystal ball). Owners can feel free to hold onto and see what the future holds for the new Grady Sizemore.
Chase Utley – Utley was one of my buy low picks for the season, but then he injured his right knee. He returned from the DL on May 23 and has an 37 PA so far (small sample size issues with all this data).
Here is a look at a few player owned in under 50% of all leagues in ESPN on the DL soon and could make an impact, good and bad, on your fantasy team.
Brandon Webb (Shoulder) 4.3% owned – Today, Brandon is making a rehab in AA. I usually advise picking up a player if you happen to have an open slot DL. In Brandon’s case, don’t waste one. There are better players available on the DL right now that should be picked up. The big concern with Brandon is his fastball, more specifically, a lack of one. He previously threw a fastball around 88 MPH. Current reports put Brandon’s fastball at 4 MPH slower or about 84 MPH. Even if he gets his curve ball back to where it was previously, a 84 MPH fast ball will probably not cut it in the majors.
Brandon McCarthy (Shoulder) 2.7% owned – Brandon has had shoulder problems in the past. He said he used to pitch through the discomfort he felt in his shoulder. He decided not to pitch through the pain this time and hopes to return sooner from the DL. His time table for returning has not been set yet, but before going on the DL, he was putting up some decent numbers. He had a K/BB of 3.7 and an ERA 3.57. His ERA could have actually been a little inflated since he had a FIP of 2.42 and a slightly high BABIP of 0.319. He could be a nice addition to a pitching staff when he returns. An owner should wait until he is for sure coming back and throwing before picking him up.
Travis Hafner (oblique) 23.8% owned – He is being dropped quite a bit in leagues. I know he only has DH intelligibility and at least 3 weeks from returning, but he is hitting 0.345 with 5 home runs. He definitely belongs on some owner’s DL or bench. A no brainer.
Derrek Lee (Oblique) 33.4% owned – Derrek begins baseball activities today and is able to come off the DL on Wednesday. It may be a few days later as he may need a little more rehab. He is not the ideal 1B candidate, but he has hitting for some power this season (4 home runs). I fully expect him to be owned in AL only and most deeper leagues due to a lack of options. In shallower leagues, I would expect there to be better players available than this declining vet when he returns.
Every year a dozen or so MLB pitchers need to have TJS (Tommy John surgery) done on their elbows. Today I will look at 3 of those pitchers (Joe Nathan, Jordan Zimmermann and Edinson Volquez) that had the surgery in 2009 or 2010 with 2011 being their first full season back. Also, I will look at some general TJS information and how it applies to the 3 pitchers.
