Over the past few days, Eno Sarris has been rolling out our consensus ranking for players at various positions. To create my rankings I used ZiPS rest of season stats to compile my rankings. The only time I changed my ranking was because of expected time lost on the D.L. For some players who are having a good 2012 season (Josh Reddick, Jed Lowrie, Allen Craig, Edwin Encarnacion and Trevor Plouffe), my rankings are lower than most people expected. Today, I am going to look at one cause for a player to be out performing his projections: injuries.

Note: I will be looking at lack of past playing time and a measurable change in talent for the other two causes for a player out performing there projections.

Injuries and how they relate to player performance are one of the few last few frontiers in sabermetric studies. This off season, in two separate studies, Mitchel Litchman (MGL) and myself looked at how injuries affect a hitter’s performance. In MGL’s study, he looked at players who went on the DL and how they performed. He found that hitters under performed their SLG in the year of the injury, but the rest of their traits stayed constant. In my study, I looked at players who played through injuries without going on the D.L. and found the same conclusion. In the year after the injury, the player exceeded their projected power numbers.

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C.J. Wilson was paid $77.5M this off season to come in and be a front line starter for the Angels. With Jered Weaver and Dan Haren already on the team, he wasn’t going to be the only ace of the staff, but he has pitched like one. It is now time to sell high on Wilson’s great 1st half of the season. He has 9 Wins, a 2.33 ERA (6th among qualified starters) and a 1.17 WHIP. These stats put him within the top 20 SP in production for the 2012 season (16th SP with ESPN’s Player Rater). His stats don’t match his perifial numbers so he has a good chance of regressing quite a bit in the second half of the season.

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Lance Lynn – Lance started out the season hot, but recently he has been on the decline. Here are his main fantasy stats by month:

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Last night was Anthony Rizzo’s 2012 MLB debut and he started it off with a bang. He went 2-4 with a double and an RBI. He got the call up after hitting 0.342 with 23 HRs in AAA. While he has dominated AAA, here is a look at what kind of production can be expected from him in the majors this season.

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Here is a look at some data for Jurrjens and Oswalt, who both returned to the majors last Friday night.

(Ownership rates are ESPN and then Yahoo!)

Jair Jurrjens (11%, 21%) – Jurrjens started the season in the Braves rotation, but was sent down to the minors after 4 starts and a 9.37 ERA. While in AAA, he made 10 starts and struggled with 5.18 ERA, 4.7 K/9 and a 1.43 WHIP. Due to injuries with other Braves starting pitchers, he was forced back into their rotation. On Friday night, he had a good outing with 4 K, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 3 H and only 1 Run.

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Today, I am looking at some possible 2B options for owners in deeper leagues. The following players are owned in less than 10% of the leagues at ESPN and Yahoo!.

Ownership percentages are ESPN and then Yahoo!.

Ryan Theriot (9%, 7%) – Theriot is just not a talented 2B and it really doesn’t matter. He is getting regular playing time (started 19 of the last 21 games at 2B for the Giants) and is hitting at the top of lineup (#2 hole in 19 of the last 20 games). Both “attributes” will help him to generated plenty of opportunities to score and drive in Runs. He just needs to take advantage of the opportunities.

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A few days ago, I looked at the effects the shift may be having on players using the difference between their BABIP and xBABIP. The observed drop in a player’s BABIP, compared to their xBABIP, was 41 points. As reader phoenix2042 pointed out, I was using a dated formula for xBABIP. By using an updated xBABIP formula, I still found a difference, but not as much of one.

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Relief pitchers qualified at starters are great assets for fantasy teams with a limited number of RP slots (and IP limits). These pitchers can be played when a starter has a day off to pad a team’s rate stats. Also, they are a great source of creating Holds and on the rare occasion,a few Saves. Here is a look at some of the top SP qualified RP so far in 2012.

Brett Myers – 2.08 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 15 Saves
Brett’s main value comes from the Saves he generates. His strikeout rates are not ideal for a RP, but his low walk rate allows him to maintain a decent K/BB (4.0) and low WHIP (0.83). The one huge issue with Myers is that he may end up getting traded to a contender and lose his closer role

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It seems that the newest “Moneyball” craze in the majors this season is the defensive shift. Usually used only against left handed hitters, it is being implemented by more and more teams against more and more players. Today, I am going to look at the fantasy implications of the shift.

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Howie Kendrick had what seemed to be a breakout season in 2011. Most of his improvement came from a career high 18 home runs. He is not having the same level of production in 2012. He is just hitting over .250 with four home runs. Howie has several factors leading to his decline this year.

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