• Updated and complete HURT and PAIN rankings.
• Mike Reinold looked at five reasons Tommy John surgeries are on the rise:
We always hear our not-so-favorite broadcasters mentioning a player’s stats against a certain pitcher. Well, I think we are all hopefully smart enough to not take the results of 15 meetings between a pitcher and hitter seriously. Instead, we split samples into larger groups like right-handed hitter vs. left-handed pitcher. I have decided to cut the difference and create a spreadsheet which takes a middle ground. I grouped pitchers by handedness, velocity and groundball tendencies and found how hitters performed against the different pitcher groups.
First off, I wanted to have this Excel-only spreadsheet available online before the season started. Well, I got it done and working in time. Since Visual Basic macros were used in the final view, it doesn’t have a online option which I wanted. So today, I am going to make it publicly available, but at some point I hope to have it working in all spreadsheet formats and/or online at a place like Google.docs.
• All right, home work time. Here is a must read article by Tom Verducci from SI on Tommy John surgeries. A key point for fantasy baseball owners is this:
But in a sport in which 24.2 percent of players on Opening Day rosters grew up in Latin America, only one of the 20 Tommy John patients came from there (Detroit reliever Bruce Rondon, of Venezuela).
“Latin American pitchers are allowed to grow into their velocity,” said one international scouting director. “It’s a common story to sign a guy throwing 84, 85 [mph] who eventually winds up throwing in the 90s. Michael Pineda is one. You’re looking for someone with a good, athletic body who can throw the ball around the plate and has a feel for spinning the ball. The velocity comes in time, with training and better nutrition and physical growth. Here? The statistics don’t lie. We need to look elsewhere around the world to learn a better way. It’s time.”
Young American kids throwing hard for long time may be a major factor in tearing their UCL.
• Alex Cobb will be out four to six weeks with a strained quad muscle.
Cobb admitted that he “felt something grab” on his final pitch Saturday to Reds leadoff man Billy Hamilton. But he thought it was just a cramp or a slight pull and went on to throw 82 more pitches over seven impressive innings, feeling more pain between pitches than during, before finally taking himself out of the game. He thought he might miss at most one start.
It does seem a little long, but he may have made the problem worse by throwing 82 more pitches after he felt the “grab”.
• Matt Moore has a torn UCL and in the best case scenario, he will return late in the 2014 season. More likely he will under go Tommy John surgery. I had an idea the injury was pretty bad right after it happened.
Matt Moore’s in game2game velo was fine, but a 38% Zone% and late game velo plunge http://t.co/3PfqkWQjpr have me concerned about the injury
— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) April 8, 2014
Late game velocity plunges are usually not healthy for a pitcher. We will have more information on Moore in the up coming days, but for now, don’t expect any useful production from him in 2014.
• Sonny Gray has me perplexed a bit. First, his velocity is down compared to last season.
• It is just too early for any PAIN, HURT or SLOW reports, but I do have some decent early season information on fastball velocities. Every morning I will try to Tweet out pitchers who are seeing a major increase or decrease in velocity. You can follow me at @jeffwzimmerman or to see the most recent information, go to https://twitter.com/jeffwzimmerman.
• One pitcher who I am keeping a close eye on is Ubaldo Jimenez. His velocity was down 2 mph.
Note: With the DL sheets at the end of the article, teams are still adding players to the DL (and making last minute roster moves). MLB.com is trying to keep up, but the list of transactions is behind. I will keep the list of possible DL players for this article and then finally remove them later this week.
• Clayton Kershaw goes on the disabled list for the first time in his career with a sore back.
…Kershaw was scratched from starting Sunday night’s domestic opener because of an inflamed teres major muscle, which stabilizes the upper arm near the upper back. Now, he also will miss his projected start for the home opener against the Giants on Friday.
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And they believe placing him on the DL is the smart thing to do. Especially with four off-days within this portion of the schedule’s first 13 days, and no fifth starter needed until April 19.
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Kershaw would be eligible to come off of the disabled list early the following week — the move is backdated to March 23 — but the Dodgers are making no promises about when he will pitch again. Mainly, because there is little urgency in the season’s first few weeks given the spate of off-days, and because they want to remain ultra-conservative and make sure Kershaw is right when he returns.
It seems like the injury just needs time. It seems like April 19th may be the day to expect him back.
Bruce Rondon is just the latest hard throwing pitcher to need Tommy John surgery (TJS). Besides Rondon, it seems like just about every pitcher who throws over 100 mph ends up needing repairs on their ulnar collateral ligament. Neftali Feliz. Brian Wilson. Stephen Strasburg. Matt Harvey. I decided to look at the injury rates of pitchers who can throw the magical 100 mph.
• Four articles looking at the seemingly increase in pitcher injuries have recently been published.
• Clayton Kershaw will miss the Dodgers second opening day with an inflamed neck/back/shoulder.
Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw was scratched from Sunday night’s start because of an inflamed teres major muscle, which stabilizes the upper arm near the upper back.
Kershaw underwent an MRI on Wednesday that showed the inflammation. A Dodgers news release indicated that Kershaw complained of discomfort playing catch at Tuesday’s workout. He wouldn’t say if he felt the discomfort while throwing 102 pitches in the season-opening win in Australia.
….Kershaw said he “didn’t think” the compressed Spring Training, necessitated by the trip to Australia, “had anything to do with” his injury, nor did the long flight.
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He said he feels the discomfort when he brings his arm forward “accelerating.”