• Sonny Gray has me perplexed a bit. First, his velocity is down compared to last season.

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• It is just too early for any PAIN, HURT or SLOW reports, but I do have some decent early season information on fastball velocities. Every morning I will try to Tweet out pitchers who are seeing a major increase or decrease in velocity. You can follow me at @jeffwzimmerman or to see the most recent information, go to https://twitter.com/jeffwzimmerman.

• One pitcher who I am keeping a close eye on is Ubaldo Jimenez. His velocity was down 2 mph.

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Note: With the DL sheets at the end of the article, teams are still adding players to the DL (and making last minute roster moves). MLB.com is trying to keep up, but the list of transactions is behind. I will keep the list of possible DL players for this article and then finally remove them later this week.

• Clayton Kershaw goes on the disabled list for the first time in his career with a sore back.

…Kershaw was scratched from starting Sunday night’s domestic opener because of an inflamed teres major muscle, which stabilizes the upper arm near the upper back. Now, he also will miss his projected start for the home opener against the Giants on Friday.
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And they believe placing him on the DL is the smart thing to do. Especially with four off-days within this portion of the schedule’s first 13 days, and no fifth starter needed until April 19.
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Kershaw would be eligible to come off of the disabled list early the following week — the move is backdated to March 23 — but the Dodgers are making no promises about when he will pitch again. Mainly, because there is little urgency in the season’s first few weeks given the spate of off-days, and because they want to remain ultra-conservative and make sure Kershaw is right when he returns.

It seems like the injury just needs time. It seems like April 19th may be the day to expect him back.

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Bruce Rondon is just the latest hard throwing pitcher to need Tommy John surgery (TJS). Besides Rondon, it seems like just about every pitcher who throws over 100 mph ends up needing repairs on their ulnar collateral ligament. Neftali Feliz. Brian Wilson. Stephen Strasburg. Matt Harvey. I decided to look at the injury rates of pitchers who can throw the magical 100 mph.

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• Four articles looking at the seemingly increase in pitcher injuries have recently been published.

• Clayton Kershaw will miss the Dodgers second opening day with an inflamed neck/back/shoulder.

 Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw was scratched from Sunday night’s start because of an inflamed teres major muscle, which stabilizes the upper arm near the upper back.

Kershaw underwent an MRI on Wednesday that showed the inflammation. A Dodgers news release indicated that Kershaw complained of discomfort playing catch at Tuesday’s workout. He wouldn’t say if he felt the discomfort while throwing 102 pitches in the season-opening win in Australia.
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Kershaw said he “didn’t think” the compressed Spring Training, necessitated by the trip to Australia, “had anything to do with” his injury, nor did the long flight.

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He said he feels the discomfort when he brings his arm forward “accelerating.”

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• Jurickson Profar will miss 10 to 12 weeks with a shoulder tear with some baseball activities beginning in four to six weeks. The Rangers middle infield situation is a mess with Elvis Andrus (sore forearm) also hurt. The Rangers should be making some announcements today as they figure out how they will fill the 2B gap for at least half the season.

• Manny Machado will start the season on the DL and will be ready “… sometime in April” according to Buck Showalter.

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A few years ago I broke down the disabled list (DL) chances for starting pitchers (39%). I have finally gotten around to making an initial stab at relief pitcher DL values.

The initial problem I have with relief pitchers is defining them. I didn’t want to be looking at pitchers who split their time between a relief and starting role. I decided the pitchers needed to have at least 95% of their appearances as a reliever. Also, I didn’t know what to set the minimum innings limit to. Here is a chart of the DL% depending on the number of innings pitched the previous season. Matched season data from 2002-2003 to 2012-2013 was used.
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• A cascade of pitcher injuries has happened the past few days. Here are a couple of  links looking what can be done to help prevent injuries.

• On the main FanGraphs site, Mike Pertriello looked at how how many of these pitchers were trying to throw through in game pain.
• Peter Gammons mentions some crack pots work on using PITCHf/x data to look at detecting possible pitcher injuries.

While these  injuries seemed to happen all at once, the pitchers did have a chance to end up injured.

Name: DL%, extra injury indicator
Patrick Corbin: 30%
Parker: 30%, low Zone%
Medlen: 40%
Beachy: Never re-established himself after TJS. About 30% pitchers never do.

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Bold prediction time. Let the bashing begin.

1. Miguel Cabrera will not be one of the top two fantasy players. A couple of thoughts here. He is just an old, heavy player with a recent injury history. I don’t think he will have enough production to over come time lost to a possible disable list trip. Even though he is at 1B this season, he is still susceptible to injuries. Also, a full season from Carlos Gonzalez or Ryan Braun could be enough to take one of the top two spots.

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• Kris Medlen looks to be out at least a couple of months for a torn ulnar collateral ligament.

Medlen underwent an MRI exam on Monday that showed damage around the ulnar collateral ligament of his right elbow. A stress X-ray conducted on Tuesday provided a stronger indication that the ligament damage will need to be surgically repaired.

A definitive decision will likely be made within the next two days. The process has been slowed due to the fact that Dr. James Andrews, who performed Medlen’s Tommy John surgery in 2010, is among the contingent of orthopedic surgeons currently attending a conference in New Orleans.

“That stress X-ray is not definitive, but it did probably confirm what he was fearing — that there is a high likelihood he will have to have another Tommy John,” Braves general manager Frank Wren said.

More information will be available today (maybe even before this article runs).

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