Note: There was a ton of guys (e.g. Matt Bush) I wanted to see in Arizona but none of the relevant games were broadcast. It’s 95% Grapefruit league today.
Braves vs Nationals
A radar gun and some interesting young arms pulled me into this game.
Max Scherzer
FB: 91-94 mph
SL: 85-88 mph (straight up nasty)
CB: 75-78 mph
CH: 83-86 mph
Brewers vs Angels
The rest of the media covered Shohei Ohtani in depth but I needed to see him for myself. Here are my thoughts.
Shohei Ohtani allowed a run while recording two strikeouts and a foul popout in his first inning. His fastball ranged from 93-97 mph. He threw some nasty secondary pitches, including a particularly nice 69-mph curveball.
— Pedro Moura (@pedromoura) February 24, 2018
I’m not sure how often I’ll go through the league each day during spring training but it should be fairly often. I’m going to focus on the players whose status is up in the air and could see their values change.
Detroit vs New York Yankees
Miguel Cabrera swings (8 and 1:02-minute mark)
I am no trained scout but even though he got a single in his second at-bat, there was no power behind any of his swings. I’m not buying any improvement for now.
Mets vs Braves
Zack Wheeler was one of the few pitchers who threw Friday I wanted to see how he performed after missing the two months last year with an arm injury. It was only an inning of work and the camera angle was rough but he looked fine. Here are his pitch velocity’s from the broadcast radar gun.
I’ve been prepping for two AL-only leagues, so the today’s thoughts only involve mainly AL hitters but can be extended to either league. While working on my evaluations here are some observations.
Create a plan for the injured X-factors
The two hitters who could carry a fantasy team, if healthy, are Michael Brantley and Miguel Cabrera. If (BIG IF) they get a full season of healthy plate appearances, I’d not be surprised if they were top-20 hitters. Owners aren’t showing a ton of faith since Cabrera’s ADP is at 95 and Brantley’s at 245.
No one knows for sure how they’ll perform so owners need to know before the draft where they feel they can gamble on rostering them. Owners need to make this decision ahead of time, not on the fly in a draft or auction. Come up with a plan you can live with and stick to it. Their evaluations can be adjusted as detailed reports become available from spring training on their health.
In the latest episode of the Launch Angle Podcast, Rob Silver asked me how many Wins did I expect Chris Archer to accumulate this season. Basically, I came back with my normal response, I don’t chase Wins and don’t care. He pushed a little harder and wondered the actual difference. I just stammered out a horrible response because I didn’t know. I’m not one to not know so found out with the answer being a win or two.
For years, I’ve used the potential for more Wins as a tie breaker between pitchers with similar baseline stats (strikeouts, walks, and groundball rate). I focused on talent first. Usually, I found pitchers on projected better teams being drafted way ahead of those with similar skills on worse teams. I just assumed the better skills will lead the pitcher to as many Wins as the worse pitcher on a better team. There is no need for me to make that assumption anymore.
Every year Jason Collette puts together a list of pitchers who are adding a new pitch. Last year, over 50 different pitchers said they were adding/changing at least one of their pitches. Once the season was over, the pitchers who made the biggest gains from adding a new pitch weren’t on the list. As much as I personally enjoy helping with the list during the spring, it doesn’t help fantasy owners. Instead of focusing on the list, I’m going to work propose a different method for finding pitchers to target.
Once every season ends, I go examine where the fantasy industry missed on players. Two top-15 pitchers who made the list were Robbie Ray and Luis Severino. In both cases, they began to effectively utilize a third pitch. For Severino, it was a changeup which generated a 13% SwStr% and his K/9 jumped from 8.4 to 10.7 and his ERA dropped from 5.83 to 2.98.
Changing a pitcher’s pitch mix seems to be the newest path to success. Having a pitcher utilize his two to four best pitches can help him focus his arsenal for peak results. Finding these pitchers can be a huge advantage and the great and wonderful Eno Sarris used the original work to find Carlos Carrasco. I’m going to step an owner through the procedure using a few examples from the news so they can find their own diamond in the rough.
The basic idea behind changing a pitcher’s pitch mix is to have them throw as many effective pitches as possible. The original studies focused on above-average pitches. This is a simple method and one I use when examining a pitcher. The pitcher’s pitch results can be found by going to their page at FanGraphs, clicking o the Splits tab, then the Pitch Type Splits tab (example).
Since NFBC ADP (average draft position) data has been available here at FanGraphs, I’ve kept the weekly values. Here are some biggest ADP movers over the past three weeks who started or ended up in the top-250 picks.
A note to remember is that a move at the top is more important in the steep section of the talent curve instead of later with the talent levels off.
Justin Verlander +2 (37th to 40th)
Zack Greinke +2 (44th to 46th)
Robbie Ray +3 (44th to 47th)
Yu Darvish +2 (50th to 52nd)
The second-tier starting pitchers are dropping in ADP. This drop is not surprising as my podcast mate, Rob Silver has noticed this spending trend away from starters in previous seasons.
I usually find it closer to 68/32 or 69/31 by March.
— Rob Silver (@RobSilver) January 25, 2018
I don’t see either of these pitchers as dropping in value, just the overall hitter-pitcher mix.
Alex Bregman -2 (34th to 32nd)
Owners are liking Bregman more and more. I think he’ll eventually be going in the second round regularly as owner have a “fear of missing out” with him
A few days ago, many of the best fantasy baseball minds got together for the 15-team mixed LABR draft. While several storylines existed with it, the running joke in the draft chat was it if Mike Podhorzer or Scott Pianowski would blink first and draft a pitcher. Mike did and took Jake Arrieta in the 7th round while Scott held out until the 12th. While these two owners obviously took accumulating hitters to an extreme level, other owners took a more balanced approach or bought into pitching. Finding a hitter-pitcher balance, especially in a draft can be tough to calculate on the fly. The following a simple tool to help with that in draft confusion.
The first concept to understand is that the talent is not evenly distributed. I went over this concept earlier this week showing the non-linear talent drop using auction prices. Using concepts from this analysis can help create a simple framework by giving each round its own auction value. This can be done by going to our auction calculator, entering your league settings, and downloading both the hitter and pitcher values.
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The lights-out middle reliever is making a huge inroad as being a valuable fantasy asset. Some are throwing nearly 100 innings and with 10 K/9 or better. Along with their great rate stats, they are a cheap option instead of many back-of-the-rotation arms. Al Melchior did a great job highlighting some of these arms this past week. I’m going to take his list and find out when they are going in NFBC drafts and compare them to the starters going around them to find any possible values.
One note to remember is that NFBC drafts are 15-team leagues with 9 pitchers per team with a decent number of pitchers on the bench for streaming. My plan is to acquire one of these non-closing studs and use him as a “streamer” when one of my pitchers has a tough matchup (e.g. road game at Colorado).
