Author Archive

Lineup Analysis (8/4/24)

Note: I’m not sure just a couple of days after the trade deadline will be the best snapshot of lineups. I’m sure there can be some advantages gained by going over them this weekend.

American League

Angels

Nolan Schanuel has hit leadoff in five straight games. Read the rest of this entry »


FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 19)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (8/1/24)

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

• Driveline Baseball published a must-read article for anyone considering using the new bat tracking data.

A higher bat speed opens the door to a multitude of different approaches. With lower bat speed, the options are significantly lower and the margin for error is incredibly small.

The one item they brought up is that batter clustering might be the best way to compare hitters.

• MLB.com ranked all the prospects traded at the deadline. Connor Norby was their top guy.

1. Connor Norby, 2B/OF, Marlins (No. 5)
Acquired from the Orioles in the Trevor Rogers trade

Norby earns the nod here for basically being a finished product. Baltimore’s crowded position-player group allowed Norby to build basically a second full year at Triple-A in which he slashed .297/.389/.519 with 16 homers in 80 games, and he has the chance to hit for a solid average with selective aggression and at least average power. He could step in quickly and seize Miami’s second-base job with the opportunity he never quite got with Baltimore.

The deal is that no top-end prospects were traded almost all being fantasy irrelevant except in the deepest leagues. Here are the Steamer600 comps for Norby. Not many rostered players on the list.

American League

Blue Jays

Ryan Yarbrough could be used in the MLB rotation.

Of the 14 players acquired, 10 have reached at least Double A or higher (that includes Yarbrough who was DFA’d by the Dodgers and will likely come to Toronto to eat innings as a member of its rotation down the stretch).

Mariners

Jorge Polanco has been dealing with a knee injury for a while …

… while working on a change in approach.

Polanco is hitting the ball harder (a rise in average exit velocity from 86.8 mph to 91.2 mph in this stretch), making more consistent contact (a drop in whiff rate from 31.4% to 20.8%), getting the ball in the air more (a drop in ground-ball rate from 38.1% to 28.9%) and striking out less (a dip in K rate from 33.6% to 20.3%).

• Polanco says the improvements are more centered on approach rather than mechanics, with help from personal hitting coach Osvaldo Diaz, who also works with Julio Rodríguez and was in Seattle earlier this month.

“Approach is a lot of stuff,” Polanco said. “It’s how you stand at the plate, what you think, what you look for, all of those kinds of things. It’s helping right now, but we’ve got to keep working on it.”

• After signing with the team, Victor Robles made “an adjustment with his lower half”.

Robles’ 33.8% hard-hit rate this season is by far the highest of his career, yet he says that it’s not a reflection of a tinkered swing, but rather, an adjustment with his lower half — which Mariners director of hitting strategy Jarret DeHart helped install shortly after he signed, because he arrived with an open mind.

“I’ve always been a quick hips type of guy,” Robles said through an interpreter. “And JD made some type of balance in between and helped me with a scissor swing a little bit, so I can have more direction to the ball. I just got close to him and told him that I’m here to do whatever I thought was going to help me out.”

Rangers

Evan Carter has dealt with back issues for years.

This isn’t the first time Carter has dealt with a back injury either, despite being just 21 years old.

He played only 32 games with Single-A Down East during his professional debut in 2021 due to a stress fracture in his back, though he slashed .236/.438/.387 in that small sample that season.

“It’s the same injury,” Carter said. “Exactly the same thing. … Except instead of fighting through it like an 18-year-old in Single-A vs. a 21-year-old facing All-Star pitchers in the big leagues — you can’t really fly through quite as long.

Rays

Jeffrey Springs had problems keeping his fastball velocity over 90 mph in his 76-pitch debut.

Red Sox

James Paxton is making some adjustments to try to get his velocity back up.

It was interesting to hear Paxton talk about some of the tweaks he’s been making to get his velocity back up.

“I was trying to squeeze the ball a bit harder to get my flexor involved into throwing the ball, just because my arm’s not snapping through quite as hard as it was,” Paxton said. “So getting the flexor involved by squeezing the ball harder hopefully will create some tension for me to throw the ball a little harder.”

Vaughn Grissom is likely headed to AAA once off the IL.

Grissom, the presumptive second baseman heading into the season, has to be activated from the injured list by Aug. 9, but two people in the organization said the team has considered optioning Grissom to Triple-A Worcester after the rehab clock is up. The 23-year-old has been sidelined for much of the year, and the Red Sox aren’t certain he’ll be at his best — or their best option — when his rehab assignment ends.

Connor Wong will start taking reps at second base.

When the Red Sox traded for right-handed-hitting catcher Danny Jansen over the weekend, manager Alex Cora announced that primary catcher Connor Wong could start seeing some reps at second base, making clear that the Red Sox are preparing for alternatives at the position.

Royals

• In AAA, Alec Marsh will have a medium workload in order to move back to the rotation or the bullpen.

Quatraro said Marsh will scale back his workload in Omaha now, pitching in the 40-60 pitch range, and start some games or pitch behind an opener to get ready for any role he’s needed for in Kansas City in these last two-plus months of the season.

Tigers

Javier Báez is healthy and letting the ball travel deeper into the zone

The difference now, Báez said, is a comfort level waiting for the ball a split second longer to let it travel deeper into the zone and give his eyes a little more chance to recognize the pitch.

“It’s at the point where I’ve been wanting for the last three years,” he said. “I’m just feeling really good, seeing the ball well and just letting it get deep in the zone and recognizing it pretty good.”

Just as important, he’s also feeling healthy after battling lower back issues for a good stretch of the season, an issue he addressed during his month on the injured list. He’s doing daily exercises to keep it loose, and he said it’s just about normal.

… because he was loading too early.

His coil before the pitch has been less exaggerated. Friday night, he hit two other balls with exit velocities of more than 100 mph, in addition to his 104.1 mph home run. He mentioned studying video and seeing how off-kilter his load had become.

“I was loading too early,” Báez said, “and now I just got another point to start my swing.”

Yankees

Gleyber Torres does not want to play third base

Boone spoke with second baseman Torres about potentially playing some third base in deference to Chisholm, who has played center field the past two seasons but was once considered a high-level defender at second base. Boone said Torres prefers to stay at second base but that the 27-year-old would take grounders at third base just in case. Torres will also be a free agent at the end of the season and likely doesn’t want to hurt his value playing out of position.

Torres didn’t seem happy about the idea late Sunday night, though he said “everything is still on the table.” He said he played third base in the minors — back in 2018 — only because it was a faster way to the majors at the time.

“I don’t like it,” he said about playing third base back then.

“I’m a second baseman, so I’ll play second,” he added.

… but needed a restart and is now “seeing the ball”.

Entering Friday, he was hitting .308 with three homers, eight RBIs and an .862 OPS in 18 games since manager Aaron Boone benched him for two straight games in late June for a mental reset and to rest a tight right groin.

During the All-Star break, Torres flew home to Tampa and spent lots of time working on his swing at a baseball facility he co-owns with best friend and former teammate Gio Urshela, a third baseman for the Detroit Tigers. Torres said he worked with someone “who knows me and knows my swing and all my routines” and who wasn’t quite his personal hitting coach.

“I went over there for a restart a little bit,” he said.

Torres added that he feels like he’s finally seeing the ball well at the plate.

National League

Brewers

• Highly touted prospect Jacob Misiorowski will transition to the bullpen.

The Brewers also have two young arms knocking on the door of the Major League bullpen in left-hander DL Hall, who is once again nearing a return from the IL, and top pitching prospect Jacob Misiorowski, who was promoted to Triple-A Nashville on Tuesday and will transition to the ‘pen.

That move with Misiorowski has two benefits. One, it controls his workload as he approaches what Arnold characterized as a loose innings limit. Two, like Corbin Burnes six years ago, it prepares him for a potential late-season call-up to the Major League bullpen.

Christian Yelich is going to find a way to deal with his back pain.

“Sometimes things pop up and you have to deal with them,” Yelich said. “[Bad] timing, obviously. We’ll try to figure out a way to get back out there this season, because I like playing with these guys, obviously.

“Right now, I’m not thinking about surgery. I’m trying to figure out, how do we push this as far as we can? We’ll see what happens and see if I can do it. I have hope. That’s a good thing.”

And asked what kind of surgery he would require, should he go that route, Yelich said, “I don’t want to say what they would do. They would just fix me, hopefully.”

Rhys Hoskins is working on his swing decisions and set up in the box.

Hoskins is hitting for more power, and he feels like he’s getting to a better spot at the plate.

“Yeah, I do,” Hoskins said. “Still working on swing decisions. I’ve always said that if the swing decisions are good, the results usually tend to follow. I like my chances if you’ve got to beat me in the zone. We’ll just continue working on pitch recognition and being stubborn to what we do well as a team — also as me individually.”

Lately, Hoskins has been working a lot on his setup at the plate and trying to get his body in better — and more comfortable — position in the box.

“I think with comfort comes a thoughtless mind,” Hoskins said. “And usually, when you’re not thinking much up there, talent tends to come out. Like I said — continue to fight for more comfort in the box and let the eyes tell me swing or no swing.”

Dodgers

Alex Vesia is seeing a major velocity drop.

Vesia surrendered the home run on an 89.9 mph fastball, by far his slowest of the season. Roberts didn’t shoot down the idea that there might be something ailing Vesia, who has quickly reemerged as one of the Dodgers’ most valuable relievers over the past months.

It’s not good.

Giants

• The team plans on Marco Luciano being the primary designated hitter.

The Giants recalled Luciano, who hit six home runs and has a .416 on-base percentage for Triple-A Sacramento in July while drawing as many walks as strikeouts. Zaidi and Melvin made it clear that Luciano will get everyday at-bats and most of those opportunities will come in Soler’s place as the DH.

Marlins

Max Meyer wasn’t in the majors because he was working on utilizing his changeup, not service time manipulation.

The 25-year-old right-hander had boxes to check before returning to the big leagues, like utilizing his changeup more and getting back on a regular starter’s routine of pitching every five days. Due to starting-pitching injuries and others not performing, Meyer made his long-awaited return in Saturday’s 7-3 comeback victory over the Brewers at American Family Field. He is back without restraints in terms of pitches per start or innings.

“Max was going to make his way up here no matter what, because he’s so good,” manager Skip Schumaker said. “He was going to find his way. I don’t think it was one thing or another, more just protecting, making sure that he’s good to go when he does come up here.”

In his first MLB start since April 13, Meyer went four innings, allowing four hits – three singles – with three strikeouts and two walks. He threw a lot of strikes but wasn’t efficient, as Milwaukee fouled off 27 of his 85 pitches.

Meyer, whose slider and four-seamer combination make him MLB Pipeline’s No. 79 overall prospect, worked on his changeup and a new two-seamer in the Minors. Though he didn’t debut the latter on Saturday, he threw his changeup 14 percent of the time – including on Rhys Hoskins’ three-run homer with two outs in the fourth.

Nationals

Alex Call made an approach and mechanical change in AAA.

Call batted .222 in 75 games with the Red Wings this season, but recent adjustments saw him averaging .321 in 21 contests this month. Call batted .391 in his last 15 Triple-A games.

“Just a little bit of an approach change and kind of a target change,” Call said. “That kind of brought out a little bit of a mechanical change, too.”

Padres

Dylan Cease changed his delivery and found more velocity.

Before the All-Star break, Cease and Niebla worked to tweak Cease’s delivery, bringing his glove closer to the body. At first, it was meant to disguise his pitches. But as Cease began to throw with his new delivery, he found himself significantly more comfortable and consistent with his release.

“I was like, ‘I think this is a double whammy here,’” Cease said. “I think we’ve really found something.”

Niebla broke down the mechanics of it.

“He’s basically getting more aligned,” Niebla said. “He’s found some velo within that adjustment. His breaking ball has been more consistently getting to lanes, in and out. Just overall, he feels more compact. Really feel that he’s taken the next step with this adjustment.”


Hitter Fantasy Value Changes From Trades

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Here is my best estimate on which hitters gained or lost fantasy value because of trades. Over the next few days, I’ll note any changes at the end as news comes on how teams plan to utilize each player. Also, several teams are going to need to promote some players to fill their roster.

Note 1: This ranking is by how much a player’s value changed, not the best players. Randy Arozarena and Jazz Chisholm Jr. are the top two talents, but since both were already regulars hitting near the top of lineups, their fantasy value after the trade didn’t change much.

Note 2: All these trades and roster moves happen in the last few hours and days. I’m sure some batters will play more or less than I predict. My goal here is for a quick look.

Major Upgrade

Miguel Vargas: Goes from a short-side platoon role to a top-of-the-order bat.

Austin Hays: Goes from a short side-platoon bat to what seems a full-time gig with the Phillies. Check back after a week on the playing time situation to ensure he’s not in a platoon.

Jonny DeLuca: Three starts (one vs LHP) since the Arozarena trade.

Dillon Dingler: Detroit called up Dingler to catcher with the trade of Kelly. Batting .308/.379/.559 with 17 HR and 5 SB in AAA.

Alex Call and Harold Ramírez: Both from zero contributions to regulars. Keep an eye on Call. He might end up in a platoon.

Marco Luciano: Sounds like the Giants are going to give me full-time at-bats as note here (7/31 update):

The Giants recalled Luciano, who hit six home runs and has a .416 on-base percentage for Triple-A Sacramento in July while drawing as many walks as strikeouts. Zaidi and Melvin made it clear that Luciano will get everyday at-bats and most of those opportunities will come in Soler’s place as the DH.

Kyle Stowers: Batting third in his first game with the Marlins (7/31 update).

Upgrade

Joey Loperfido: Should get most of the DH at-bats in Toronto but might not hit enough to stay in the majors.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Better park and surrounding cast with the Yankees.

Amed Rosario: Rosario’s value will drop going to the Dodgers but he has a huge range of outcomes based on his usage. The team needs middle infielders and outfielders and he could fill in at any position. He’ll start as the team’s shortstop until Edman and/or Betts come off the IL.

Rays infield including Taylor Walls, José Caballero, Curtis Mead, and Junior Caminero: After trading away Paredes, the third base job opened up. Knowing the Rays, it won’t be one player getting all the playing time but spread around.

Alejandro Kirk: With Jansen gone, he’ll get most of the catcher reps.

Marlins Outfielders: Nick Gordon and Cowser got the first starts. Dane Myers is an option when he comes off the IL (update 7/31)

Slight Upgrade

Heston Kjerstad: More playing time but still splitting time with the other outfielders.

Jorge Soler: Better ballpark. Maybe a better lineup.

Lane Thomas: Team upgrade.

Bryan De La Cruz: Small team upgrade.

Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan: With Edman gone, both should see more time at second base. I’m not sure they will play enough to be rosterable in any league except NL-only.

Neutral/Unknown

Josh Bell: Might be taking over for Walker (oblique) at first base.

Ty France: On on the Reds with no obvious roster spot.

Joey Wiemer While all played in the majors, there are no obvious roles for them right now. I could see Norby and Stowers move up as plans come out of Miami.

Kevin Kiermaier: A part-time player moving on to be a part-time player on another team.

Mark Canha: With Soler traded away, Canha will get the DH at-bats and might cycle them with the other outfielders.

Austin Slater: Weak-side platoon bat with a career 122 OPS against lefties and 84 OPS against righties. Could slide into Austin Hays’s previous role.

Dylan Carlson: A short-side platoon bat with the Cardinals and remains in the same role with the Rays.

Sight Downgrade

Danny Jansen: He seems to have moved from being the primary catcher to the backup (7/31 update)

Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Looks to be a super sub. When healthy with the Blue Jays, he was playing every game. He might not with the Pirates.

Jesse Winker: I don’t think Winker will get more plate appearances with the Mets than with the Nationals and he will almost certainly run less as the Mets have nearly half (76) as many SBs as the Nats (147).

Justin Turner and Randy Arozarena: Park downgrade.

Isaac Paredes: Park downgrades his pulled home runs.

Paul DeJong: In my first take, I might have been too harsh on DeJong calling him Royals’ luggage boy. He seems like he’ll be playing more than I expected (7/31 update).

Christopher Morel: I suspect he’ll sit more as the Rays take advantage of matchups.

Tommy Edman: The Cards seemed to love Edman and had no problems batting him at the top of the lineup. With the Dodgers, I’m not sure how much he’ll play with the Rosario add, a hot Gavin Lux, and Mookie Betts returning.

Cal Raleigh and Mitch Garver: Fewer DH at-bats with Justin Turner.

Andy Pages, James Outman, Jason Heyward: These three played regularly but will start in fewer games with Edman and Rosario in the mix.

Downgrade

Alex Verdugo: He might sit against lefties (career 113 OPS vs RHP, 79 OPS vs LHP) with Chisholm playing in the outfield.

Johan Rojas: Will be splitting time in center field with Brandon Marsh. I might be ranking him too high.

Carson Kelly: Goes from full-time at-bats with Detroit to the backup job with Texas.

Eloy Jiménez: Huge team improvement but Orioles are loaded with hitters so I don’t think he’ll play much. Originally, I didn’t take into account how much of a playing time hit it will be for him (7/31 update).

Mitch Haniger: Fewer DH at-bats and Arozarena will steal outfield starts. Might belong in Down Hard.

Michael Siani and Tommy Pham: The pair will split time in the outfield, killing their values.

Connor Norby: Demoted to the minors (7/31 update)

Down Hard

DJ LeMahieu: The only reason he gets any playing time is the $35M left on his contract.

Nick Ahmed: He’s gone with the additions of Edman and Rosario and with Betts returning.

Adam Duvall: Soler is going to push him to the bench.

Tyrone Taylor: Addition of Winkler pushed him into a short-side platoon role, at best.

Jhonkensy Noel: Addition of Thomas killed his playing time.


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the winning bids in the three 15-team mixed Tout Wars leagues

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:32
JoeG: Could Graterol be in the mix for Saves when he gets the call ? Also Drew Rasmussen if Fairbanks gets traded ?

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so on either one

7:33
Honkus Wagner: Any speculation on Morel’s playing time? feel like this is in prep to trade Yandy and he’s the 1B going forward with Caminero at 3rd

Read the rest of this entry »


FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 18)

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »


Big Kid Adds (Week 17)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They were originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and there are ten of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »


Lineup Analysis (7/27/24)

Note: I know that the information here could be dated the minute it gets published because of a trade. This will be one weekend to track the news and overreact to weekend lineups.

American League

Angels

• They have too many guys at second, third, and designated hitter with one of Luis Rengifo, Brandon Drury, Anthony Rendon, and Willie Calhoun sitting each game.

Mickey Moniak has started in 15 of 16 games in centerfield. Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (7/23/24)

American League

White Sox

Drew Thorpe is throwing his changeup at different speeds.

“He learned his changeup plays three times in a row to certain guys,” said White Sox manager Pedro Grifol, commending Thorpe for greater fastball command since Arizona put seven earned runs on him on June 16. “Normally, that doesn’t happen because you don’t throw the same pitch three times in a row.

“People make adjustments. He learned today he can with the changeup if he continues to mix the speeds of the changeup. There are some really good learning moments.”

Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the winning bids in the three 15-team Tout Wars teams.

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:33
Seth: Are River Ryan and Jose Soriano pretty much the same value? Figure Soriano is closer to an innings cap and Ryan might only last a start, but has higher upside?

7:33
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d go with Ryan

7:33
Jeff: River Ryan or Robbie Ray ROS? Ws/ERA/WHIP/Ks/SOLDs 10-team roto league

Read the rest of this entry »