–Addison Reed notched his third save of the season — tying him for the early league lead after the first week with Sergio Romo — dishing a perfect ninth-inning as the White Sox clipped the Mariners, 4-3. The 24-year-old Reed induced a Dustin Ackley groundout to first, then fanned pinch-hitters Franklin Gutierrez and Jesus Montero to seal the deal. The prescription was a steady diet of sliders to both Gutierrez and Montero, each of whom ended their at-bats with swings-and-misses on Reed’s preferred offering.

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-A lackluster start to the season by Detroit’s closer-by-committee situation lead the Tigers down a familiar path on Thursday. The American League Central favorites re-signed their former closer, Jose Valverde, to a minor league contract with the option to opt out by May 5th if he’s not called up to the Majors. The 35 year-old veteran is clearly not the long-term solution in Motown, but could serve as a band-aid until Phil Coke, Al Alburquerque or Joaquin Benoit decide to grab ahold of the ninth inning — or until Bruce Rondon is deemed ready for the role.

With the signing — and if he gets the call — Valverde would have the third most career saves among active, non-injured relievers. Entering today, Valverde’s 277 saves would place him behind only future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera (608) and Joe Nathan (298) among those expected to pitch in ‘13.

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Like some of the other newer writers here at RotoGraphs, this is my first entry in the Bold Predictions.

Here’s to hoping .300 is still good enough for the Hall of Fame.

Feast up commenters!

10. Despite injury, Adam Eaton will still steal 40+ bases.

Not exactly BOLD, I know. Trying to ease y’all into this. But if Eaton returns by mid-May or earlier as advertised, he’ll still have enough time to wreak havoc on the basepaths.

9. Andrelton Simmons will score 80 runs, swipe 25 bags.

The Braves shortstop is more known for his leather, but with a full-season leading off in front of Heyward and the Upton brothers, Simmons should really flourish. In addition to the 80 runs and 25 swipes, Simmons could chip in a .275 or better batting average, giving those a nice return who selected him in the late-rounds of their fantasy drafts.

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The Orioles bullpen doesn’t appear to have all of the bright flashing lights and fancy names like some of the others in the league, but there could be some fine value to be had for fantasy owners in deeper leagues that reward holds.

The Closer:

Jim Johnson

Surprising to many, Jim Johnson finished the 2012 season with a league-leading 51 saves and a seventh place finish in the Cy Young race. The right-hander’s success could be attributed to the increased use of the two-seamer which led to a 62.3% GB% in 71 appearances. He failed to earn the swings-and-misses (6.9% SwStr%, 15.2% K%) that most expect from a true “closer,” but he maintained more-than-reasonable ratios (2.49 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and induced enough ground balls to lockdown the ninth and make him a valuable asset to those who invested. We could very well see a repeat of Johnson’s 2012 ratios and whiffs, but don’t expect 51 saves and you won’t get your heart-broken.

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The Phillies bullpen is a healthy blend of veteran and younger arms that improved greatly this offseason with the addition of veteran Mike Adams. The backend of Bastardo, Papelbon and the aforementioned Adams should provide fantasy owners fine production in 2013 — especially those in holds+saves leagues.

The Closer:

Jonathan Papelbon

Papelbon is the model of consistency at arguably the most inconsistent position in baseball. The Phillies’ right-hander took the hill a minimum of 59 games and saved at least 31 in each of the last six seasons between Boston and Philadelphia. Papelbon doesn’t exactly post Kimbrelian type strikeout numbers — but a 32.0 K% in ‘12 and a career 29.9% K% is nothing to be ashamed of. It does appear that Pap lost a tick on each of his three offerings, so one may want to keep an eye on that. But if you’re the type of fantasy owner that believes in paying for saves — but not as much as it would cost to snag Craig Kimbrel — then Papelbon is your guy.

The Setup Guys:

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The 2013 version of the Cardinals bullpen seems to be littered with depth, specialists and flashes some upside that should make for an interesting year, both in real and fake baseball.

The Closer:

Jason Motte

Motte finished 2012 42-of-49 in save chances with a 2.75 ERA (3.12 FIP) and a 5.02 K/BB. His 42 saves and 5.02 K/BB were each career bests with a minimum of 20 innings pitched, and good enough for a third and twelfth place finish among qualified relievers respectively last year. The key to the righty’s recent success could be associated with the increased use of the cutter over the past three seasons. The flamethrower’s velocity and ability to induce swinging strikes have increased and his xFIP has decreased in each of those seasons. The Cardinals’ closer continues to get better and maybe the best is yet to come. He’s ascended into the top of the second tier of relievers and should be one of the top three from that position selected in your draft. He will continue to provide impressive ratios, whiff batters and tally the saves your team desperately needs — if you’re willing to pay the price.

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Over the course of the next few weeks we will delve into the depths of the bullpens to identify potential middle relief targets, specifically, those relievers who appeal to owners in leagues that reward “holds.”

Andrew Bailey | RP | BOS

The oft-injured reliever struggled mightily in his first season in Boston — albeit, in just 15.1 innings (19 appearances) on the hill. His contributions were limited due to a damaged ulnar collateral ligament the right-hander suffered in a collision with a Pirates’ base runner while covering first in Spring Training. Bailey returned to the bump in mid-August, but failed to impress. The 18.9 K% and 10.8 BB% posted in that short time were both career lows. His velocity was up, but Bailey couldn’t hit the first strike (55.4% F-Strike%), miss bats (6.8% SwStr%) or induce ground balls (32.7% GB%) at rates he was previously accustomed to.

Based on Bailey’s struggles, the Red Sox went out and acquired Joel Hanrahan — from the Pirates, ironically — to take over ninth-inning duties. Despite the acquisition, Bailey and the Sox agreed to a one-year deal in the off-season for the righty to return to the Boston ’pen. This will give Bailey the opportunity to perform in situations that aren’t as high leverage, which could boost his confidence and potentially his trade value. Early indications suggest Bailey may share the setup duties with Koji Uehara, who was also brought in this winter, giving him the opportunity to tally some holds. If Bailey is dealt to a team in need of a bullpen arm, his role could increase, subsequently boosting his fantasy value. For now, Bailey is nothing more than a late-round dart for deep mixers or AL-Only leagues that reward holds + saves.

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The Astros’ bullpen is a mishmash of waiver claims, Rule V selections and players looking to resurrect their career. None of the following names will appear high on your cheat sheets this draft season — if they appear at all — but some of these arms could provide fair value for those unwilling to pay for saves or holds in 2013.

The closer:

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The middle reliever isn’t the sexiest name on your roster, but he does carry five (or more) category potential for those in traditional leagues. One night during your head-to-head matchup you may be rewarded when he has the opportunity to pick up the scab win or he gets the save chance when the tabbed closer is given the night off. Ideally, the middle reliever will maintain a humble ERA and WHIP while posting a first-class K:BB ratio. And most importantly, the reliever you are looking to add could be the handcuff to your current closer for insurance purposes.

Over the course of the next few weeks we will delve into the depths of the bullpens to identify potential middle relief targets, specifically, those relievers who appeal to owners in leagues that reward “holds.”

Joel Peralta | RP | TB

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Just a couple of quick hitters on the final evening of the 2012 regular season:

• Fernando Rodney dished one-third of an inning tonight for his 48th save of the season. In doing so, Rodney lowered his ERA to 0.60 — the lowest ERA for a relief pitcher in MLB history with a minimum of 50 innings pitched. He just edged Dennis Eckersley’s 0.61 ERA effort in 1990. The Rays hold a $2.5 million option for Rodney’s services in 2013, which will likely be picked up.
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