Author Archive

Scheming For Relief: Delabar, Soria and Siegrist

Back at it with another edition of “Scheming For Relief” after a well-deserved two-week vacation. I apologize to the middle relief “die-hards” out there for the absence of this piece over that time, but I know my colleague Ben at the Bullpen Report kept y’all up to speed nicely.

This week I went an arm on the rise, an arm on the mend and an unowned arm. While the first is likely owned in holds leagues, he’s on the verge of being owned in all formats. The other two, well, read for yourself and hope it helps! Cheers!

All ownership percentages reflect Yahoo! leagues.

Steve Delabar | Blue Jays | 3%

Over the past two weeks, Steve Delabar owns a 0.00 ERA with three holds and a league-best 14 strikeouts among relievers. On the season the Blue Jay boasts a 30% K% and a 13.6% BB%, but his numbers against the most recent 28 batters he’s faced are far superior: 50% K% and 10.7 BB%. The right-hander is inducing swinging strikes at an 18.1% clip over that time frame, up from 13.9% SwStr% on the year and 15% SwStr% for his career. It appears as if he’s been using his slider a tad less and relying on the splitter a bit more as of late, which could be one cause for the jump in missed bats. At any rate, Delabar is moving from the “should be owned in holds leagues” classification to the “useful middle reliever in all formats” category for those in need of steady whiffs, ratios and the occasional scab win. If your WHIP is a major concern, keep an eye on the 29-year-old’s walks to make sure the recent improvement isn’t just a mirage.

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Bullpen Report: June 8, 2013

Mariano Rivera faced two Mariners over the minimum en route to his 22nd save of the season today in Seattle. The future Hall-of-Famer surrendered a leadoff single and issued a free pass, but eventually struck out the side to seal the deal. Tonight’s save raised Mo’s career total to 630 and he now sits just one save behind league-leader Jason Grilli (23) for the current campaign. Two more historical tidbits on Mo: He’s saved 630-of-670 games over the course of his career.  And if Mo were to hang ’em up today, Joe Nathan, whose 316 saves rank second-most among active players, would need just 314 saves to catch the Yankee.

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Bullpen Report: June 6, 2013

Just a few notes on a relatively slow night from the bullpen arms (at the time of this writing, at least)….

Jose Valverde needed just nine pitches in the bottom of the ninth-inning to close out the Rays and save a gem for starter Max Scherzer today. The Tigers stopgap last took the hill on 5/31 in Baltimore where he served up two long balls, leading to four earned runs and his second blown save of the year. So, it’s a safe bet that Detroit’s brass and his fantasy owners alike, took a deep sigh of relief at the conclusion of tonight’s efficient outing. With that said, Valverde’s velocity appears to be down a tick or more on both his fastball and splitter, entering tonight he’s been missing fewer bats (8.8% SwStr%) through 14 appearances versus his career 12.8% SwStr% and he’s been getting a bit lucky on balls in play (.156 BABIP). Hate to say it, but I see this glass as half-empty, and I’d be looking to add him as a sweetener in a larger deal with an owner in need of saves.

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Bullpen Report: June 1, 2013

Just a few bullpen notes from this evening…

Huston Street embarked on his annual journey to the disabled list today, and for the second time in two years, his left calf appears to be the culprit. Prior to hitting the shelf, Street converted 11-of-12 save chances with a 4.43 ERA (7.44 FIP) and a 1.63 K/BB in 21 appearances. But despite the successful save conversion rate, the veteran closer is failing to miss bats (8.6% SwStr%) like he’s been able to in the past (13.4% career SwStr%). Bud Black indicated that both Luke Gregerson and Dale Thayer would close games in Street’s absence, but tonight, Thayer took the hill with two out in the seventh while Gregerson earned the call in the ninth. Gregerson surrendered three hits and one earned run during his first save opportunity this season, but in the end, notched the saves. Gregerson should be considered in all relevant formats for those chasing saves.

Rafael Betancourt also landed on the 15-day disabled list on Saturday due to a nagging groin injury. In his stead, manager Walt Weiss will look for left-hander Rex Brothers in the ninth frame in save situations. Admittedly, I initially anointed Wilton Lopez as the heir apparent to Betancourt based on his previous experience in Houston — and to a lesser extent, the fact that Brothers is a southpaw — but, the lefty’s 0.38 ERA proved to be too good to pass up. Like Gregerson, Brothers should be an immediate target for those in need of saves.

Francisco Rodriguez locked down his third save of the twenty-thirteen campaign this evening — the 240th of his career — as the Brewers clipped the Phillies, 4-3. K-Rod yielded a leadoff longball to Freddy Galvis, but pulled a few rabbits out of his hat to walk off the diamond with a handshake. With Jim Henderson reportedly out “a while,” Rodriguez deserves to be owned in more than just 37% of Yahoo leagues.

Greg Holland (9), Jose Veras (10) and Aroldis Chapman (14) each tallied saves tonight while Tom Wilhelmsen blew his second save chance of his last five outings.

Closer Grid:

 

Closer First Second DL/Minors
Arizona Heath Bell David Hernandez Matt Reynolds J.J. Putz
Atlanta Craig Kimbrel Jordan Walden Cory Gearrin
Baltimore Jim Johnson Darren O’Day Pedro Strop
Boston Andrew Bailey Junichi Tazawa Koji Uehara
CHI (NL) Kevin Gregg Carlos Marmol James Russell
CHI (AL) Addison Reed Jesse Crain Matt Thornton
Cincy Aroldis Chapman Jonathan Broxton J.J. Hoover Sean Marshall
Cleveland Vinnie Pestano Joe Smith Bryan Shaw Chris Perez
Colorado Rex Brothers Wilton Lopez Matt Belisle Rafael Betancourt
Detroit Jose Valverde Joaquin Benoit Phil Coke
Houston Jose Veras Wesley Wright Hector Ambriz
KC Greg Holland Aaron Crow Tim Collins Kelvin Herrera
LAA Ernesto Frieri Scott Downs Robert Coello Ryan Madson
LAD Brandon League Kenley Jansen Ronald Belisario
Miami Steve Cishek Mike Dunn Chad Qualls
Milwaukee Francisco Rodriguez John Axford Mike Gonzalez Jim Henderson
Minnesota Glen Perkins Jared Burton Casey Fien
NY (NL) Bobby Parnell Brandon Lyon LaTroy Hawkins Frank Francisco
NY (AL) Mariano Rivera David Robertson Joba Chamberlain
Oakland Grant Balfour Ryan Cook Sean Doolittle
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Mike Adams Antonio Bastardo
Pittsburgh Jason Grilli Mark Melancon Tony Watson
St. Louis Edward Mujica Trevor Rosenthal Fernando Salas Jason Motte
SD Luke Gregerson Dale Thayer Joe Thatcher Huston Street
SF Sergio Romo Jeremy Affeldt Jean Machi Santiago Casilla
Seattle Tom Wilhelmsen Carter Capps Charlie Furbush
TB Fernando Rodney Joel Peralta Jake McGee
Texas Joe Nathan Tanner Scheppers Jason Frasor
Toronto Casey Janssen Steve Delabar Darren Oliver Sergio Santos
Wash. Rafael Soriano Drew Storen Tyler Clippard

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]


Bullpen Report: May 30, 2013

Bobby Parnell notched his ninth save of the year in a 3-1 Mets victory over the Yankees tonight. For the Metropolitans, the win surprisingly sealed a series sweep against their crosstown rivals, providing them with some momentum as they head back into divisional play against the Marlins, Nationals and the Marlins again over the course of the next two weeks. For Parnell, it was his third consecutive save and the third outing in-a-row without surrendering a hit. The lanky right-hander whiffed one-of-three batters this evening, bringing his whiff rate to 25% on the season. The current 25% K% is actually higher than he’s had in the past two seasons — 23.9% and 21.2% respectively — despite missing fewer bats (8.6% SwStr%) than he has over that same time (9.8% SwStr% in ‘11, 10.1% SwStr% in ‘12). The previous data leads me to believe that Parnell’s strikeout rate could continue to rise if his ability to miss bats regresses toward his career 9.6% SwStr%. His recent success parlayed with the news that Frank Francisco was transferred to the 60-day disabled list today with continued elbow issues further proves that Parnell’s grip on the closer’s role in Flushing continues to get stronger.

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Scheming For Relief: Updated Middle Reliever Tiers

Finally, the “Updated Middle Reliever Tiers” are complete, for now. Each of the five standard pitching categories — and of course holds — played a role in determining these tiers.

The first two tiers were pretty simple to establish. Horses like Mark Melancon, Jesse Crain and Trevor Rosenthal seem to have separated themselves from the rest of the pack through the first two months of the season and are elite middle relief commodities at this point. But when it came time to find homes for the Aaron Loups and Cody Allens of the world, I felt like I was splitting hairs.

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Bullpen Report: May 23, 2013

It was a slow day on the diamond with just five games on the schedule, so here are just a few bullpen notes to hold you over…

Jason Grilli’s early season ninth-inning heroics vaulted him to the number seven slot in the Bullpen Report’s “Updated Consensus Closer Ranks,” and this afternoon’s 14-pitch effort did nothing but solidify that ranking. The Pirates closer faced the minimum in the ninth and struck out the final two Cubbies to remain a perfect 19-for-19 in save chances this year. The two looking strikeouts — courtesy of Luis Valbuena and Welington Castillo — inflated the right-handers whiff rate to 41.4% on the year, which as of tonight, is a major league best. In addition to the fantastic strikeout rate, Grilli lowered his ERA and WHIP to 1.25 and 0.74 WHIP on the year respectively.

To be fair, Jason Grilli isn’t the only story coming out of the Pirates ‘pen these days. Twenty-eight-year-old Mark Melancon owns a 0.72 ERA, 0.80 WHIP a 27.4% K%, a 1.1% BB% and has notched a league-leading 16 holds in 25 trips to the hill. Yes, those numbers are real. Parlay those ratios and whiffs with a scab win here, a scab save there and you could have yourself a top 100 player. Melancon is owned in just 20% of Y! leagues, but at this point, he’ll be more than useful in all 12-team and deeper mixed formats.

Papa Grande shook hands for the fifth time this season as the Tigers closed out the Twins, 7-6. Valverde sat down the Twinkies in order — including two via the strikeout — to raise his strikeout rate to 25% on the season. In 11 appearance since rejoining the Tigers, Valverde is 4-of-4 in save chances with a 0.82 ERA and a 0.54 WHIP. Today’s save pushes Jose Valverde’s career save total up to 282, placing him 28th on the all-time career saves list and only behind Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan and Francisco Rodriguez among those still in the game. Watch out Mo, Jose is just 343 saves away!

There are seven middle relievers that have earned four or more holds in the past two weeks. Joel Peralta (6) notched the most of the bunch, while Trevor Rosenthal and David Robertson are the only two with a minimum of four holds and ten strikeouts. Four of the seven — Jesse Crain, Sean Doolittle, Jake McGee and Trevor Rosenthal — own a perfect 0.00 ERA. And what do you get when you add Rosenthal, McGee and Doolittle’s efforts together over that time? A 2-0 pitcher who sports a glistening 0.00 ERA and a 7.6 K/BB. Yes, that’s Chris Sale territory. Moral of the blurb? If the top 20 starting pitcher you’re looking to acquire continues to elude you, simply stack a few elite middle relievers and get close to the same result — if you have the roster spots.

Closer Grid:

 

Closer First Second DL/Minors
Arizona Heath Bell David Hernandez Matt Reynolds J.J. Putz
Atlanta Craig Kimbrel Cory Gearrin Luis Avilan Jordan Walden
Baltimore Jim Johnson Darren O’Day Pedro Strop
Boston Andrew Bailey Junichi Tazawa Koji Uehara
CHI (NL) Kevin Gregg Kyuji Fujikawa Carlos Marmol
CHI (AL) Addison Reed Jesse Crain Matt Thornton
Cincy Aroldis Chapman Jonathan Broxton J.J. Hoover
Cleveland Chris Perez Vinnie Pestano Joe Smith
Colorado Rafael Betancourt Rex Brothers Wilton Lopez
Detroit Jose Valverde Joaquin Benoit Phil Coke
Houston Jose Veras Wesley Wright Hector Ambriz
KC Greg Holland Kelvin Herrera Tim Collins
LAA Ernesto Frieri Scott Downs Jerome Williams Ryan Madson
LAD Brandon League Kenley Jansen Ronald Belisario
Miami Steve Cishek Mike Dunn Chad Qualls
Milwaukee Jim Henderson John Axford Michael Gonzalez
Minnesota Glen Perkins Jared Burton Casey Fien
NY (NL) Bobby Parnell Brandon Lyon LaTroy Hawkins Frank Francisco
NY (AL) Mariano Rivera David Robertson Joba Chamberlain
Oakland Grant Balfour Ryan Cook Sean Doolittle
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Phillipe Aumont Antonio Bastardo Mike Adams
Pittsburgh Jason Grilli Mark Melancon Tony Watson
St. Louis Edward Mujica Trevor Rosenthal Fernando Salas Jason Motte
SD Huston Street Luke Gregerson Dale Thayer
SF Sergio Romo Jeremy Affeldt Jean Machi Santiago Casilla
Seattle Tom Wilhelmsen Carter Capps Charlie Furbush
TB Fernando Rodney Joel Peralta Jake McGee
Texas Joe Nathan Tanner Scheppers Jason Frasor
Toronto Casey Janssen Steve Delabar Darren Oliver Sergio Santos
Wash. Rafael Soriano Drew Storen Tyler Clippard

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]


Scheming For Relief: Digging For Holds in Atlanta

The injury bug continues its rampage through the backend of bullpens across Major League Baseball. The most recent victims, the Atlanta Braves, lost two of their most reliable middle relievers this decade to season-ending elbow surgeries. Without Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty — who combined for 447 appearances and 160 holds since ‘10 — Braves skipper Fredi Gonzalez will be signaling for different arms during the middle innings.

And with a fresh set of faces trotting to the bump, the fantasy baseball community — more specifically those in holds leagues — should be able to find some hidden gems in the Atlanta ‘pen.

Let’s take a look at the middle arms currently on Atlanta’s 25-man roster.

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Bullpen Report: May 18, 2013

Since 2010, the Atlanta Braves bullpen owns a major league best 2.95 ERA (3.21 FIP) with 1,628 strikeouts. They’ve been worth 19.1 WAR over that same time frame, placing them behind only the Colorado Rockies who’ve accumulated 19.8 WAR. Additionally, Atlanta’s ‘pen saved 152 games since the beginning of ‘10 — third-best in the bigs — as well as earning the league’s fourth-most holds, 276.

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Bullpen Report: May 16, 2013

Bobby Parnell secured his fourth save of the year as the Mets clipped the Cardinals 4-3 in Saint Louis. Parnell surrendered just one hit — a single to Matt Adams — in the bottom of the ninth frame, and struck out one to seal the victory for the Metropolitans. Parnell is now 4-of-6 on the season in save opportunities with a 1.04 ERA (1.86 FIP) and a 0.73 WHIP. However, owners should monitor his K% — which is up to 26% this season from 21% in ‘12 — despite missing fewer bats (8.4% SwStr% in ‘13, down from 10.1% in ‘12). The foreseeable future seems to favor those with shares of Parnell, considering the (unfortunate) news that Frank Francisco felt soreness in his surgically repaired elbow just as he was meant to return from the disabled list.

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