There are certain players who are going to steal bases. It doesn’t matter which team owns Billy Hamilton’s contract, he’s going to run. That’s just who he is as a player. To other guys, stealing bases feels a lot more incidental.

Getting 17 stolen bases from Anthony Rizzo in 2015 probably won a few championships. You didn’t pay for those steals when you drafted him. Ditto Manny Machado’s 20 swipes. Respectively, they stole just three and zero bases in 2016. Rizzo and Machado didn’t become unathletic overnight. If you had the authority to tell either player they must steal 15 bags in 2017, they could. They mostly stopped running because it didn’t make sense within their team context.

Read the rest of this entry »

At this early stage of the draft season, David Dahl has become a popular target. He has a knack for hard contact, hits for power, and can swipe a bag or three. Physically, Dahl wasn’t the best or even the 10th best player to debut in 2016. His fantasy ceiling may exceed them all because of a little (big) place called Coors Field. Between the park factors and ridiculous supporting cast, Dahl is well positioned to turn in a monster season.

There’s just one teensy problem, he might get caught in a roster crunch.

Read the rest of this entry »

Everybody everywhere talks about diversifying your assets. This obviously applies to fantasy baseball too. Today, the topic is using picks to manage volatility. I recently participated in an industry mock draft, the results of which are supposed to be private. The organizer said it was alright to tweet out a few picks. I take that to mean I can also write about my first three selections.

I picked first. When it comes to mock drafts, first is my least favorite spot to select. It’s boring. Yes, of course I picked Mike Trout. What kind of philistine doesn’t pick Mike Trout. Remember last year when some people actually thought it was a good idea to select Bryce Harper instead? It wasn’t.

Read the rest of this entry »

Actually Read This Intro

Today I have a weird thought experiment. You’ll need to pay attention for a moment. Back at the start of November, I secretly began my Way Too Early Rankings with a post about relievers. This article. As I was about to schedule it, friend Eno requested me to post my rankings in order (i.e. C, 1B, etc.), and kindly furnish End of Season rankings first. So this article was mothballed for two months.

What follows is that same article, unedited. I have provided commentary to my commentary in italics. The lesson is pretty simple – relief pitchers can experience rapid shifts in value. Now, let’s return to two months ago…

Read the rest of this entry »

Thus the series is concluded. Setting the reliever replacement level in the FanGraphs auction calculator is tricky. I did my best. You may think the values smell fishy, in which case you’re free to tinker with them. The top names certainly look correct, but it’s a bit jarring to see players like Kelvin Herrera and Dellin Betances score so poorly. Maybe that’s just a reflection of me and my biases. I expect Herrera and Betances to tally $8 even without earning saves.

In case you’re just tuning into this series for the first time, I recommend going back in time and starting from the beginning. Luckily, you won’t need a time machine. The post on catchers has notes on important methodological changes. You can also go straight into the calculator to tweak values for your league.

Read the rest of this entry »

Back in the day, I used to spend my summer mornings playing Major League Baseball Featuring Ken Griffey Jr. That’s the first one for N64 and not to be confused with Ken Griffey Jr. Presents Major League Baseball (SNES). The N64 version was the first to allow trades. The AI was…not smart.

Teams could roster exactly 25 players. No more, no less. There were no salaries. Three-for-one trades were allowed and the computer assigned no value to opportunity cost. The team acquiring three players would be forced to make a couple immediate cuts. I got in the habit of trading a player, let’s call him Robin Ventura, with Rich Aurilia and David Weathers for an incremental upgrade, like Alex Rodriguez. The computer said no to Ventura for A-Rod. It said yes to the trio. Then it cut Aurilia and Weathers. I picked them back up off the wire. Rinse and repeat.

Read the rest of this entry »

So Chad Young and I have been trying to sell Gerrit Cole in the dynasty league we co-manage. It’s not that we’re concerned about Cole. The shoulder doesn’t worry us, and we expect him to bounce back from his worst year in the majors. He’s entering his age 26 season. Aside from the injury blip, he has everything we could possibly want from a dynasty pitcher.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today we have a thought exercise to, uh, think about.

The Setting

Yoan Moncada is the number one prospect in baseball. Manager John Farrell goaded the Boston front office into rushing Moncada to the majors where he promptly flopped in epic fashion. The Red Sox recently traded him to their bleached counterparts in Chicago, a possible sign they’ve cooled on their former top farmer. Or maybe they just liked Sale that much.

It seems plausible Moncada will return to the majors in 2017. The White Sox have Brett Lawrie and Tyler Saladino sharing second base, but neither player can block a prospect of Moncada’s ilk. And with Todd Frazier almost certain to be traded this winter or during the season, Lawrie and Saladino can always slide to the hot corner.

Prospects with Moncada’s talent and proximity to the majors are usually stashed in all but the shallowest (or thin benched) re-draft leagues. He’s already owned in your keeper and dynasty leagues.  Read the rest of this entry »

Redraft leagues are the gateway drug of fantasy baseball. Like other gateway drugs, you could totally stop playing at any time. If you wanted to. You don’t, but you could, and that’s an important thing to know. Once you join a competitive keeper or dynasty league, you’re well and truly hooked. Maybe you can go cold turkey. Maybe…but why? Read the rest of this entry »

On Wednesday, I released my Way Too Early Rankings for starting pitchers. It’s by far the hardest position to rank this early in the offseason because there’s just soooo much information to incorporate. Part of this exercise was designed to have you call me out when I made a glaring mistake. I may have done so with Danny Duffy.

Read the rest of this entry »