On occasion, I start to comment on a post and realize “hey, I could get paid for this.” That’s happening right now. Last Friday, Joe Douglas wrote about ottoneu owners keeping too many players. He breaks down some basic maths to show his work, concluding that, on average, teams keep five extra players. This includes generous allowances for inflation, one-year “rentals,” and prospects. A strong case could be made that we keep more than five extra players.

His point is pretty clear – we should keep fewer players. And he’s probably right. The endowment effect causes us to overvalue things we already own. It’s tough to stay objective when we’ve invested so much time and energy into acquiring some of these players.

There’s just one fly in the ointment – information asymmetry ensures that too many players should be kept. Especially since ottoneu allows for trading right up to the keep/cut deadline.

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Not everybody bothers with mock drafts. However, if you’re the type of person to read articles on RotoGraphs, you probably mock. Public mocks can be painful – too many autodrafts, noob picks, and people selecting straight from the site ADP. Not to rub your nose in it, but I’m fortunate. My position gives me ready access to mock drafts with fellow industry folk. Our drafts are usually meant to be publicly discussed. It keeps us honest.

I usually do about 10 mock drafts per season. In the past, I’ve generally picked true to my valuations. In other words, I made sure to stretch just enough to get my favorite sleepers and breakout picks. Last night, I participated in a mock with the RotoBaller team. After the first few rounds, an all to obvious question occurred to me – why am I picking guys I like?

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The series continues! We’re here to discuss the following question – which current MLB starters might flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player? During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty. If you missed the previous editions, you can find the NL East here and the AL West here.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

Let’s begin.

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Yesterday, I kicked off a six-part series to answer the following question – which current MLB starters might flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player? During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty. You can find the NL East here.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

In the NL East post, we had a good chat about Jeurys Familia in the comments. I highlighted Addison Reed as a guy who could take Familia’s job. To be clear, they’re both top 15 relievers, it’s just that Reed happens to be better than Familia. And he doesn’t have domestic violence suspension ruining his April. If Reed has a sub-2.00 ERA and domineering stuff when Familia returns, it’s going to be awfully hard to demote him. The best use case for Familia owners is if the Mets decide to use Reed like Andrew Miller.

Returning to the matter at hand, let’s head west…

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Last week, a reader asked Brandon Warne a question. Behind the scenes, Warne passed it along to the rest of the RotoGraphs crew. I decided it was worth a post or six. This is how we got where we are today (aren’t you glad you read that?).

Here’s the question in paraphrased form – which current MLB starters will flop in 2017, opening an opportunity for a prospect or non-full time player?

Let’s talk about the NL East today. We’ll rinse and repeat for the other five divisions later this week. During Spring Training, we’ll go into a full dive on team depth charts, fleshing out these opportunities in more detail. This post is meant to be quick and dirty.

I’ve constrained myself to players I believe may predictably fail. The person who asked the question used the Tigers rotation, Jimmy Rollins, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Gregerson as examples. He or she profited from Michael Fulmer, Tim Anderson, Ken Giles, and Nomar Mazara.

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Yesterday, I discussed the debut of Nomar Mazara, specifically looking at the excuse me swings he takes when fooled. The hypothesis is that he’ll be fooled less in the future. More hard contact and fewer grounders should follow. Making contact at any cost is all well and good with two strikes, but even then it’s often sub-optimal. Better to trade a few strikeouts for more doubles.

Of course, Mazara is hardly the only player to tap soft grounders when fooled. Today we’ll look at five distinct cases of players with lofty soft contact rates.

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By all accounts, Nomar Mazara had a successful major league debut. He spent most of the season as a 21-year-old, and his youth showed at times. Overall, he slashed .266/.320/.419 with 20 home runs in 516 plate appearances. He usually batted first, second, or third, although he did finish the season hitting eighth most days.

Some young players swing out of their shoes with no regard to making contact (ahem, Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo). Others, like Mazara, have a more adjustable swing. No matter which type of swing a player possesses, they’re probably prone to being fooled early in their career. As Mazara, Buxton, and others age, they’ll recognize pitches and take better swings. That’s the theory at least – some players simply are what they are.

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Between the Great Home Run Surge of ’16 and the reams of Statcast data at our disposal, it’s easier than ever to find home runs for our fantasy teams. However, sometimes we don’t even need the fancy stats to uncover 40 home run threats. As the title implies, we’ll discuss three guys such players.

When looking for these sorts of sluggers, it helps to key on three batted ball indicators. Do they have an elevated fly ball rate – preferably at the expense of grounders rather than liners? Do they pull the ball? Do they make hard contact? As a bonus question, is their home park power friendly?

Aside from sharing a batted ball profile, they all have one noteworthy trait in common – fewer than 350 plate appearances at the major league level. Small samples create many kinds of volatility. One of the guys missed all of 2016. Will he be the same hitter in 2017? Scouting reports can take longer than half a season to catch up, especially for players who are underestimated by their opponents.  In other words, what we’ve seen might not be what we get.

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I used to read The Economist. This was back when I had the silly notion that I’d use my economics degree in a normal way. For the uninitiated, The Economist is a weekly periodical in which world events are viewed through the lens of economics. Maybe that sounds boring. It’s also the best source of news analysis on the planet. But I digress…

Every week, there was an ad: Invest in Macedonia. The gist of the pitch was this – it’s kind of crap now, but all the peripherals are there for massive growth. As with all investments, there is a tight link between diversity and volatility. Invest in one unit of Macedonia, you get huge risk and reward. Scatter your investments and you’re a little safer.

The Philadelphia Phillies are performing a slow motion pivot towards contention. They are Macedonia. Part of that effort is re-engaging their fan base by improving the product on the field. This has to be carefully balanced against giving young players the space and opportunity to become assets for the team.

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Yesterday, I wrote about why Wil Myers will probably continue to steal bases in 2017. The theory was pretty simple – mostly because it didn’t need to be complicated – Myers was an efficient thief and bad teams usually let their players run. Myers is still young, and the Padres are still bad.

The other side of the coin – players on good teams usually run less often. It’s a trend, not a hard and fast rule. Rickey Henderson (or Billy Hamilton) would steal bases on any team. However, guys with iffier success rates like Cesar Hernandez (17-for-30) typically stop running when they join a quality roster. Today we’ll discuss four top stolen base sources from 2016 who may decline due to their team situation.

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