I am participating in the ongoing mock draft, and Eno Sarris and Daniel Schwartz have already written about a pair of compelling draft choices they made. The pick I made that sparked the most interest was of George Springer, who I took in the fifth round with the 55th overall pick. Chris Cwik selected Matt Kemp with the next pick, which provides a compelling player for comparison.
When the Cubs inked Jon Lester, it put a cap—at least until the team acquires another front-line starter—on a series of pitcher moves that will likely underwhelm the majority of Red Sox fans and fantasy players. Among Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, and Justin Masterson, Porcello is the closest to obvious fantasy relevance. Last season, he led the bunch with a 3.43 ERA and 1.8 walks per nine, but the three wins of real-world value are a more difficult fantasy sell for a pitcher who reached 200 innings pitched but failed to reach 130 strikeouts.
A 7.25 ERA in a season can do wonders for your sleeper status. Mike Fiers can attest to that. Fiers was limited to just 22.1 major league innings in 2013 after a batted ball struck and broke his arm, but that was enough time for him to allow eight home runs and 18 earned runs. It’s a pretty alarming streak, especially for a former 22nd-round draft pick who tops out just shy of 90 mph. Perhaps that’s why I can’t find Fiers in the top 250 for 2015 on ESPN or anywhere else I look.
Over the next few months, we’ll find out if the Cubs plan to contend in 2015. Team president Theo Epstein teased as much during a press conference at the end of the season, and if a pitcher like Jon Lester or Max Scherzer joins a rotation that has already dramatically exceeded expectations thanks to the breakouts of Jake Arrieta and rookie Kyle Hendricks, there will be little reason to doubt him.
I find third base the most interesting position in terms of eligibility in fantasy. It seems to be the crossroads that connect all other positions. Shortstops with poor range often end up at third. Third basemen with poor arms often end up in the outfield. Carlos Santana tried some third this season to get him out from behind the plate, and many future first basemen try to survive at third so teams can add an extra power bat to their lineups.
First base has a disproportionate number of hitters who are left-handed and hit for power. As such, there is no position in baseball that has been as impacted by the defensive shift. Pretty much every team has bought into the shift on one level or another, and while some players with extreme pull tendencies escape notice because they do not fit the stereotype (hello Jimmy Rollins!), teams are going to err on the side of shifting players who look like Matt Adams and Lucas Duda.
My first attempt at bold predictions did not fare too well, but I trust you’ll be a lenient grader given that my predictions were on the bolder side. Let’s examine the damage.
The day after the Orioles and Nationals clinched playoff berths, Baltimore, at least, fielded a respectable lineup. Jimmy Paredes and Christian Walker look a little out of place in their order, but they are mostly the result of losing Manny Machado and Chris Davis.
The Nationals? Not so much. Their lineup on Tuesday was barely recognizable, unless you watch a fair bit of International League baseball:
September is an exciting time in baseball. It affords us the opportunity to see many of the stars of the future, who are often promoted once rosters expand. Those prospects with enough offense to be viable in fantasy this season are likely long gone from the waiver wire, but offense is not the only way September call-ups can make a difference in fantasy. The defensive upgrades some call-ups provide can make a major difference for their starting pitchers, even over only a handful of starts. Four pitchers should benefit, in particular.
George Springer has a lot of strikeouts this year, but that is as advertised. Springer struck out about 30 percent of the time in Double-A and 25 percent of the time in Triple-A over the last few seasons. He may never hit appreciably better than the .231 he is hitting this season, but with 20 home runs in less than half a season of plate appearances and a history of stolen bases in the minors that his five big-league steals do not live up to, fantasy owners will gladly make the tradeoff.
It turns out that Springer is not the only one. Teammate Jon Singleton got the call midseason in part because he was able to cut his strikeout rate from over 30 percent in 2013 to about 22 percent this season in the minors, but he has struck out in more than a third of his major league plate appearances. More recently, call-ups Javier Baez and Zach Walters have injected lineups with a combined 16 home runs in 240 plate appearances, but they have struck out 41 (!) and 35 percent of the time, respectively.