Author Archive

Orioles Playing Time Battles: Pitchers

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

At present, the Orioles are far from favorites to win the AL East. In fact, our own projections have Baltimore finishing dead-last in the division this year, with a 78-84 record. Personally, I think they’re considerably better than the Rays, but that’s not the point of this column.

As was the case with Jeff Sullivan’s piece on Friday, Yovani Gallardo may or may not have signed with the Orioles by the time you’re reading this. If you want an in-depth look at Gallardo himself, I highly suggest reading Jeff’s article. Either way, it’s interesting to dig into the “why” behind the club’s pursuit of Gallardo, who will turn 30 later this month.

It would certainly seem that the Orioles view themselves as contenders, as they would need to sacrifice the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft to sign Gallardo, because he declined the Rangers’ qualifying offer. Why else would a team coming off a .500 season in a highly competitive division cough up a top-15 pick and ~$15 million a year for a solid — yet unspectacular — mid-rotation arm? Especially when that organization possesses an already-depleted farm system?

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Diamondbacks Playing Time Battles: Hitters

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

The big news in Arizona this offseason was on the pitching side, which Mike Podhorzer broke down in detail on Wednesday. While the team’s splashy moves regarded the acquisitions of big arms Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller, there’s plenty to talk about on the offensive side as well.

Saturday’s head-scratching trade brought in Jean Segura from the Brewers, in an effort to provide “a little bit more offense” to the middle infield, according to general manager Dave Stewart. That’s an awfully strange statement to make about a guy with a .615 on-base plus slugging over his last two full seasons.

MIDDLE INFIELD

For reasons I don’t claim to understand, Arizona paid an unreasonably high price for Segura, an okay defensive shortstop who — despite Dave Stewart’s comments — is not a good major-league hitter. Segura was great with the stick in April (.985 OPS) and May (.911 OPS) of 2013, but objectively terrible ever since. In his following 16 months of major-league action, he produced just two more months of weighted offense above league-average.

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Astros Playing Time Battles: Hitters

We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

The Astros shocked the baseball world in 2015, improving from a 70-92 record in 2014 to an 86-76 mark, which earned the team a playoff berth for the first time in a decade. Houston benefited from great pitching — finishing the season with the best team ERA in the American League — but that’s not to take anything away from the team’s prolific bats. The Astros were second in the majors in home runs (230) and on base plus slugging (.752), as well as sixth in runs scored (729).

Still, Houston approaches 2016 with a huge question mark at first base, as well as potentially complicated situations in the outfield and behind the plate. Time to sort these situations out, and see if there’s any sneaky fantasy appeal at hand.

FIRST BASE

Jon Singleton currently projects to be the Astros likely Opening Day first baseman, but his leash will unquestionably be mighty short. The 24-year-old hasn’t had much of an issue handling Triple-A pitching in the last two years, but neither his power nor his contact abilities have translated to the majors. That’s a bit of an issue when discussing a defensively limited 1B.

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The Pitcher vs. The Thrower: A Garrett Richards Tale

In March, Jeff Sullivan wrote a fantastic article about Garrett Richards. Jeff praised his increased strikeout rate from 2014, but more importantly, he pointed out the biggest key to Richards’ improvement: Hitters could no longer pull the ball in the air against him. In 2014, “Richards started to make sense. He’s become one of the easiest pitchers in baseball to explain.”

Unfortunately, that progression vanished completely in 2015, and Richards reverted back into a mystery. He’s back to being one of those frustrating pitchers who possesses great stuff, but can’t seem to put it all together. He’s the kind of guy who passes the eye test, but doesn’t produce the numbers to match it. He just seems like he should be better than he is. So, why isn’t he?

The home-run ball isn’t a huge problem in general for Richards in his professional career. Throughout his six pro seasons, he’s been a little better than league-average in that department, from A-ball to the majors. However, in 2014, he posted a truly elite 0.27 HR/9 rate, and opposing hitters slugged a league-worst (or best, if you’re Richards) .261 against him.

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The Sustainable J.D. Martinez

Coming into 2015, baseball fans everywhere had the same question on their collective minds: “Is J.D. Martinez sustainable?” The question was more than fair, as there were plenty of indicators that the now-28-year-old’s 2014 breakout could be a fluke.

It was all too easy to point at Martinez’s batting average on balls in play (.389 in 2014) and write off a good portion of his .315/.358/.553 slash. His power spike — from a .120 isolated power in 2013 all the way up to a .238 ISO the next year — was impossible to ignore, but naysayers still had avenues through which to dismiss it.

Martinez may have hit 23 homers in 480 plate appearances in 2014 — with another ten in just 71 PA in Triple-A before his promotion — but had never hit more than 19 in any season, at any level. Moreover, he hit just 19 total homers in the 864 PA he compiled in 2012-2013. Now all of a sudden, he hits 33 of them in one year? This was another area that was relatively simple to disregard as flukish.

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The Underappreciated Adam Lind

A look at the Rotographs preseason positional rankings makes Adam Lind look like a moderate bargain. Our experts had him as the No. 21 first baseman, and he finished 2015 at No. 14. However, our experts were much higher on Lind than most fantasy players.

Lind was — rather astonishingly — the No. 40 1B selected in Yahoo drafts in 2015. He was drafted in 90 percent of leagues, but his average draft position made him an absolute steal in the 22nd round. He outperformed his 242.7 ADP in dramatic fashion, finishing the season as fantasy baseball’s No. 109 overall player.

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Is Nick Hundley Sustainable?

Even though I owned Nick Hundley in a league this year, I was still surprised to see that he finished 2015 as fantasy’s No. 7 catcher. Despite receiving far fewer plate appearances than any of the other top-ten backstops, Hundley’s robust .301/.339/.467 slash line was enough to place him comfortably within those ranks. In his age-31 year, Hundley had the second double-digit homer season of his career, and his .301 AVG was well above his career average of .249.

Hundley got 389 PA this year, and that was actually just 19 shy of his career high (408 in 2013). There are two reasons he’s only surpassed the 400-PA mark once. For one, he has some significant injuries in his past, losing parts of three previous seasons to various maladies (wrist [2009], elbow/oblique [2011], knee [2012]). This year, a cervical neck strain ended his season in early September, but should be a non-issue for 2016. The bright side of his injury history is that none of his ailments have been related to one another.

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Reviewing Scott Strandberg’s 2015 Bold Predictions

Last year, I hit .300 on my Bold Predictions, which is about what I aim for. That feels like the boldness sweet spot. This year, not so much. It saddens me to report that I was overly bold this year, getting just one Bold Prediction right. However, one other was incredibly close, so I’ll say that I hit .150 this season. Still, I can and will do better next year.

I have failed you, dear readers.

1. Jorge Soler is a top-ten outfielder.

Well, he was a top-100 outfielder, slotting in at No. 99 on the season. Soler battled his fair share of injuries this year, but even when he was healthy enough to play, he hit just .262/.324/.399, with 10 home runs in 404 plate appearances. For the year, he registered a 0.0 WAR. Here’s hoping he turns it around next season.

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Explaining Eduardo Escobar

One of the most pleasant surprises of 2015 has been the performance of the Minnesota Twins. Even if they fail to capture a wild card spot, this season has surpassed any reasonable Twins fan’s expectations. A team that appeared to be in the midst of a full rebuild ended up as a legitimate playoff contender, and one of the unexpected bright spots is their largely unheralded super-utilityman, Eduardo Escobar.

The switch-hitting Escobar entered the year as a bench player for the Twins, one whose versatile glove could plug a number of holes. Case in point: In his first four defensive appearances in April, he played four different positions (2B, 3B, SS, LF). Through July 31, he had 27 starts in left field, 20 at shortstop, seven as the designated hitter, five at third base and two at second.

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But Wait, There’s More!…Guys Who Can Help You Win

With trade deadlines well in the rear-view mirror, the only way to bolster fantasy teams at this point in the season is via the waiver wire. Fortunately, we here at Rotographs have you covered in this regard. A couple weeks ago, Adam McFadden wrote about a bunch of underowned players, which spawned my own column on the topic. Steven Shumansky expanded our list even further last week, and I’ve still managed to find four players — owned in 20% or fewer leagues on Yahoo! — to recommend for those of you trying to pad your power or speed numbers down the stretch.

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