We did the shortstop keeper rankings last week, and one of the questions was succinct: “Yunel Escobar?”

If only the answer could be as short as the question in this case. Of course, if you are in a shallow league or contemplating even ten keepers in a mixed league, the answer probably is: No. Even if he has the upside to become a top-ten option at his position, after the season he just put together, he could easily be drafted cheaply in the re-stocking proceedings next year.

But let’s talk more fringe-y. Maybe you are in an AL-only league and spent your FAAB budget on your new shortstop and you’d like to know if he’ll return to grace and is worth keeping. Once again, we’ll have to assume you are not in an OBP league because then the answer is again probably easy: Yes. Before last year, his OBP was over .366 every year and his walk rate survived even his bad 2010 to hover near 10%. He’s an asset there.

The “problem” with Escobar has always been discerning a skill beyond the ability to get on base. He isn’t really speedy – his speed scores have always been below average despite his 18 career stolen bases. His batting averages have been good, but last year it was bad (.256) despite only a mediocre BABIP (.282). Even then, a one-category guy isn’t one to keep.

So it comes down to if his power will grow – an interesting thing for a man with a career seasonal high of 14 home runs. The answer to this question is not as easily parsed as the last two questions, however: Maybe. Because as bad as last year looked, there was a progression in his numbers that might give his owners some hope.

Here are his isolated slugging percentages, starting with his rookie year, and not including last year: .125, .113, .136. And his flyball percentages: 22.9%, 24.7%, 30.0%. And his groundball percentages: 56%, 58.2%, 50%. And his HR/FB: 7.9%, 9.1%, 10.1%. If only last year’s .062 ISO, 28.4% flyballs, 53.6% groundballs and 3.3% HR/FB didn’t spoil the fun, you could say that his batted ball profile was trending towards more power. More flyballs mean more power on a basic level, and that slowly increasing HR/FB was a great sign that more of those flyballs could turn into the home runs that we fantasy managers covet.

The good news is that he’s only 28 and that trends like this can regain traction even after a poor year. It’s possible that he’s older than his birth certificate says – and that would change the diagnosis slightly and make it possible that we’ve seen his best – but he’s been here a while and there’s been little speculation about his age so far. If he’s on the right side of thirty, he’s in the right place for a power resurgence and a career year. Perhaps the “Grip it and rip it” hitting philosophy in Toronto will make for a career year in 2011. Right place, right time?

There’s a chance that in the right league of the right depth, Yunel Escobar a keeper. Not quite the one-word answer for the two-word question, but it’s honest.

Over the offseason, we’ll update the rankings with a slant on the best keepers. This means an obvious tick up for youth, and a tick down for veterans, but it also been stability and consistency will be slightly more valued. One strong season doesn’t make you a top-flight keeper in other words. Here were the second base keeper rankings, and now here are the shortstops:

The Top Targets
Hanley Ramirez, Florida (27 yrs old, .300 BA, 21 HR, 92 R, 76 RBI, 32 SB, .373 wOBA)
Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (26 yrs old, .315 BA, 27 HR, 89 R, 95 RBI, 11 SB, .408 wOBA)

In terms of multi-category goodness at the position, these are the guys. Tulo’s stolen base success percentage probably means that he won’t steal double-digit bases too often going forward, but a healthy year has him hitting different benchmarks (30 HR, 100 RBI) that would make him an elite option anyway. After three straight seasons with an ISO over .200, the bet here is that Hanley’s power returns next year. Unfortunately, his fielding is sub-par and could still mean an eventual move off of the position, but that’s no reason to trade the star at what should be a low point in his value.

Still Strong And (Mostly) Young:
Jose Reyes, New York NL (27 yrs old, .282 BA, 11 HR, 83 R, 54 RBI, 30 SB, .329 wOBA)
Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (32 yrs old, .243 BA, 8 HR, 48 R, 41 RBI, 17 SB, .317 wOBA)
Starlin Castro, Chicago (21 yrs old, .300 BA, 3 HR, 53 R, 41 RBI, 10 SB, .325 wOBA)
Elvis Andrus, Texas (22 yrs old, .265 BA, 0 HR, 88 R, 35 RBI, 32 SB, .298 wOBA)

This might be slightly controversial. Jose Reyes is often thought of as an elite shortstop, but even though he’s still a solid keeper, his last season highlighted too many of his flaws to put him in the top tier. His old problems garnering walks returned (5.1% BB%), and with so much of his value tied up in stolen bases, a low total in that category, or another injury to his hamstrings, and he’s pretty much a liability. Selling now would be selling low, but a nice half-season might be all you need to move him along. Ditto Rollins, actually, who is no longer a spring chicken and has flaws of his own (declining speed and injury concerns). Andrus has flaws, but he’s still young enough that there’s hope that he ups the average a bit and fills out for some (still probably marginal) power. In real life, Castro is the better hitter than Andrus, but he’s also more likely to move off the position eventually, and he probably won’t rack up ‘counting stats’ on the same level of Andrus’ stolen bases. In roto leagues, though, Castro’s all-around excellence is preferable.

Veterans That Are Still Useful In Deeper Keeper Leagues
Derek Jeter, New York AL (36 yrs old, .270 BA, 10 HR, 111 R, 67 RBI, 18 SB, .320 wOBA)
Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (29 yrs old, .282 BA, 18 HR, 83 R, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .322 wOBA)
Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (33 yrs old, .300 BA, 8 HR, 66 R, 43 RBI, 22 SB, .366 wOBA)

In terms of present value, most of these guys outrank Andrus, most likely. But they’re all older than you might think, and none is currently so amazing that they need to be kept over the Ranger shortstop. Maybe Jeter has another good year left in him, maybe Furcal can stay healthy for a year. Maybe Ramirez has another good power year before his poor efficiency on the basepaths (64.5% success) costs him his stolen bases. But each of these possibilities is much less likely than improvement from the 22-year-old Andrus. Admittedly, it’s a fault line, and some may come down on the other side, but the long-term view, valid in more established keeper leagues, says Andrus and Castro are in a different tier.

Will They Get Better?
Stephen Drew, Arizona (28 yrs old, .278 BA, 15 HR, 83 R, 61 RBI, 10 SB, .354 wOBA)
Ian Desmond, Washington (25 yrs old, .269 BA, 10 HR, 59 R, 65 RBI, 17 SB, .308 wOBA)
Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (25 yrs old, .276, 3 HR, 39 R, 29 RB, 6 SB, .301 wOBA)
Cliff Pennington, Oakland (26 yrs old, .250 BA, 6 HR, 64 R, 46 RBI, 29 SB, .315 wOBA)
Alcides Escobar, Milwaukee (24 yrs old, .235 BA, 4 HR, 57 R, 41 RBI, 10 SB, .270 wOBA)

Each of these shortstops probably deserves a more in-depth look over the offseason, but suffice it to say that they’ve each shown glimpses of possible mixed-league value while also displaying real flaws that make them deep-league dynasty league keepers if anything. Drew and Desmond are borderline keepers if your league keeps enough players, but we now have 2700+ plate appearances for Drew and 2010 was his best year, so we probably know who he is – and Desmond’s line last year was way too similar to his minor league line (mediocre as it was) to hope for much more either. Desmond is also a poor defender, which may factor in sooner or later. These are all flawed players – but they are young for the most part.

It may seem like I’ve been writing about Mike Aviles forever. Two years ago, I compared him to Kevin Maas during Aviles’ rookie year and recommended that people pass on him in 2009 drafts (and, as an aside, I predicted that year that Matt LaPorta may struggle a little more than expected, but the jury should remain out on the Indians slugger). In the preseason this year, I talked him up as a possible starter on that Royal middle infield, and then about six weeks ago, I pointed at him during his great September (.357/.379/.612). If you picked him up after that waiver wire piece, you enjoyed two of his eight home runs and six of his 14 stolen bases, so kudos. You might say Aviles has been better to me than could be expected of a mediocre second baseman.

Hold that though. Is he actually mediocre? User Bas made some interesting points in his favor in the comments section of the Second Base Keeper Rankings. The most important thing he noticed was that Aviles’ flyball rate has slowly been inching forward, incrementally up from 33.4% in his rookie year to 37.9% this last year. That certainly helped his ISO move back from .055 in his lost year to .108 in 2010, but even this new number is sub-par (average is .150ish). Can we faithcast him for more power next year if that flyball rate continues to move?

Maybe. His minor league ISO was .166, so he could put up average power in the major leagues. And getting more balls in the air helps the slugging percentage for sure. But let’s be careful before we pencil him in for more than 15 home runs. Let’s say he gets 500 plate appearances next year, hits 40% of his balls in the air, and returns to his 8% HR/FB while keeping his plate discipline ratios similar. Then he nets 13 home runs. 600 plate appearances? 15 home runs. There are your upper bounds when it comes to a home run total.

Of course, he has some speed. Look at his career four-score speed score, though, and you’ll see it’s more ‘above-average’ than ‘speedster’ kind of speed – Aviles has a 5.6 speed score and 5.0 is average. (Chris Getz, for example, has a career 6.6 speed score). Also, Aviles has never stolen more than 14 bases in a season. Let’s call his upper bounds 15 stolen bases then?

So Aviles has the upside of a .300-hitting, 15/15 second baseman – his 13 games at shortstop this year may or may not qualify him there in your league, and that makes a difference in terms of positional value. But Aviles will also be 30 going into the season, and on a (perpetually?) rebuilding team that owns the aforementioned 27-year-old Getz at his position as well. Getz is a better fielder at his position (-0.1 career UZR/150 to Aviles’ -4.9 career UZR/150) and walks more (7.3% to Aviles’ 4.1% career), so this is no open-and-shut case. The downside is that the team makes it an open competition in the spring and Aviles finds himself as the super-utility guy. That makes him hard to keep, but an interesting late-round draft pick in deep league re-stocking drafts.

These rankings could function as end-of-year rankings, but with a twist. Young players on the way up get a bonus, especially since many keeper leagues allow you to keep young players as long as you like without penalty. Older, more filler players don’t get listed because you can find them next year in the late rounds of your re-stocking draft anyway. These rankings are also for regular 5×5 roto, despite the fact that we’ve got wOBAs listed. It’s just an extra piece of information, right? The age listed is their age going into the 2011 season.

The Top Targets:
Robinson Cano, New York AL (28 yrs old, .326 BA, 29 HR, 103 R, 109 RBI, 3 SB, .389 wOBA)
Chase Utley, Philadelphia (32 yrs old, .275 BA, 16 HR, 75 R, 65 RBI, 13 SB, .373 wOBA)
Dustin Pedroia, Boston (27 yrs old, .288 BA, 12 HR, 53 R, 41 RBI, 9 SB, .377 wOBA)
Ian Kinsler, Texas (28 yrs old, .286 BA, 9 HR, 73 R, 45 RBI, 15 SB, .357 wOBA)

This feels right as the first group, but where does Utley belong? He’s the oldest of the crew, and loves getting hit by pitches. He averaged 25 per year from 2007-2009 (18 last year), and each of those is akin to a round of Russian Roulette these days. Then again, he’s hurt his hip and his thumb on the base paths, so maybe each of those stolen bases is really the cause for worry. In any case, the two guys behind him prove that it doesn’t take being old to have injury problems, so we’ll go with the upside here. Do you want to penalize Kinsler for being injury-prone? He’s averaged 124 games per season in his career, so we’ll put him last, but he’s also averaged 18 home runs and 21 home runs per season even in those few games, so we’ll keep him here.

Strong Secondary Options
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (29 yrs old, .275 BA, 18 HR, 100 R, 59 RBI, 16 SB, .332 wOBA)
Dan Uggla, Florida (31 yrs old, .287 BA, 33 HR, 100 R, 105 RBI, 4 SB, .381 wOBA)
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (28 yrs old, .269 BA, 29 HR, 112 R, 83 RBI, 11 SB, .368 wOBA)
Kelly Johnson, Arizona (29 yrs old, .284 BA, 26 HR, 93 R, 71 RBI, 13 SB, .377 wOBA)
Martin Prado, Atlanta (27 yrs old, .307 BA, 15 HR, 100 R, 66 RBI, 5 SB, .352 wOBA)

Phillips and Uggla feel like old men, but they aren’t that old yet. Uggla shouldn’t see the same batting average, and Phillips’ ISO has been dropping for four years – so some sort of decline is in order, just not a precipitous one, hopefully. Weeks is risky because of the injuries, of course, and Johnson slugs so much better in Arizona that there’s some risk there too. Prado doesn’t seem as risky, but also doesn’t have the same upside in counting stats. It’s a good strong group though, and there’s little shame keeping these guys in mixed leagues where you keep more than five keepers.

Riskier But Young-ish, Best as Deep Dynasty League Options
Neil Walker, Pittsburgh (25 yrs old, .296 BA, 12 HR, 57 R, 66 RBI, 2 SB, .351 wOBA)
Aaron Hill, Toronto (29 yrs old, .205 BA, 26 HR, 70 R, 68 RBI, 2 SB, .291 wOBA)
Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (29 yrs old, .238 BA, 10 HR, 77 R, 75 RBI, 24 SB, .323 wOBA)

Now we’re in a group that shouldn’t really be kept unless you are in a deeper league or a near-dynasty situation. None of the first two guys is really well-balanced – but that also means deeper league owners could use them to plug certain holes. They’re all solid keepers for teams that need a little power boost and can afford some batting average risk. Edit: Zobrist was a cut and paste I forgot to paste back in because I wasn’t sure where to put him. I think his 2009 still provides enough upside to consider him here, but if the power doesn’t return, he doesn’t seem to have elite speed, and he could really belong in the bottom group.

Veterans Better Drafted Late For Bounceback Than Kept
Brian Roberts, Baltimore (33 yrs old, 4 HR, 28 R, 15 RBI, 12 SB, .340 wOBA)
Chone Figgins, Seattle (33 yrs old, 1 HR, 62 R, 35 RBI, 42 SB, .302 wOBA)

I mean, you could keep these guys, but they’d be easy pickings at the draft next year as well. Both are young enough and have long enough track records that they could easily bounce back next year and provide good value on their return. And, on leagues that are deep enough or keep enough players, they could also work as final keepers. Second baseman that steal 30 bases don’t grow on trees. If you’re wondering why other veterans didn’t make this list, it’s because they don’t have the same upside. I mean, yes, Mike Aviles had a great end to the season, but he’s 30, doesn’t have much power, and only about average speed. Not to mention the team has a younger option at the position that was hurt while Aviles went off.

Only Worth Keeping in the Deepest of Leagues Because They are Younger and Could Get Better, Maybe
Gordon Beckham, Chicago AL (24 years old, .252 BA, 9 HR, 58 R, 49 RBI, 4 SB, .305 wOBA)
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (27 yrs old, .279 BA, 10 HR, 67 R, 75 RBI, 14 SB, .317 wOBA)
Danny Espinosa, Washington (23 yrs old, .214 BA, 6 HR, 16 R, 15 RBI, 0 SB, .301 wOBA)
Eric Young, Jr., Colorado (25 yrs old, .244 BA, 0 HR, 26 R, 8 RBI, 17 SB, .281 wOBA)
Sean Rodriguez, Tampa Bay (25 yrs old, .251 BA, 9 HR, 53 R, 40 RBI, 13 SB, .316 wOBA)

This is the bargain bin. Beckham almost made it north with Zobrist, but what he’s shown was not as impressive as the season Zobrist showed, so we’re not sure what upside we’re really chasing. Kendrick probably won’t get much better, but if the team gets better around him and he has some BABIP luck, he could be a younger, slightly more powerful version of Placido Polanco, right? Though Espinosa came up and hit some home runs right away, his power in the minor leagues wasn’t more middling than impressive (.185 ISO), and it’s a little bit more about speed (25 SBs, 69% success rate) with him. He’s a decent sleeper for next year even with the slight batting average risk (25.7% strikeout rate). Eric the younger? Well, he’s got blazing speed and could be a deep league boon if he wins the job next year – the risk is obvious though.

If you are in H2H championships right now, you are probably thinking of streaming or already knee deep in probable starters as we speak. Here’s a quick run-down of the more interesting starters by day for the final weekend. Good luck!

Friday
Mark Rogers is starting against the Reds and if you need strikeouts and strikeouts alone, he’s an interesting name. He missed all of 2007 and 2008 with labrum surgeries (torn!) and yet he’s got his velocity back up to 94/95 MPH and has shown his characteristic strikeout punch again (10.06 K/9 in his minor league career). Then again, Rogers has control problems (5.67 BB/9 career in minor leagues), to put it mildly. He also saw a reduced strikeout rate (about one per inning) after the surgeries. In more shallow leagues, the strikeouts-and-strikeouts alone option is Bud Norris, but that’s living on the edge, too, despite his nice FIP (4.16).

PIcking up Pat Misch might be a misch-take but at least he doesn’t walk people (0.93 BB/9 this year, 2.53 career), and is keeping the ball on the ground this year (51.8%). The Washington lineup will also be without Ryan Zimmerman, so he’ll have less opposition. He’s probably the safest streamer Friday. Jordan Zimmermann is also safer than Rogers (most starters are), and offers more strikeout ability than Misch, but he’s been limited to about five innings per start, so his ability to get you a “W” has been adversely affected.

The Kyle Kendrick / Brandon Beachy tilt is probably best to be avoided, given Kendrick’s FIP (4.91) and Beachy’s lack of experience and the stress of the moment. If you’re going to take the dive on one of the two, try Beachy, who has always shown great control in the minor leagues (2.12 BB/9), and added strikeout punch as he advanced.

Saturday
Saturday is actually a rough day for streamers, with a lot of established pitchers taking their final turns. Chris Capuano has been pitching decently and should be fresh, but his career numbers (4.34 ERA / 1.35 WHIP) were accrued in over 700 innings and shouldn’t be ignored. He’s pretty vanilla and only struck out one dude in his last start. His opponent, Homer Bailey, offers much more in the way of strikeout ability and risk. But Bailey’s only given up more than four runs once in his past ten appearances, so maybe he’s not as risky as we think. He’s pitching as a post-season audition and has a 3.89 FIP, he’s a decent spot starter.

Tim Stauffer is flying off the shelves (14% owned now), and for good reason. He’s got a great final matchup against the Giants, and has finally regained that groundball-inducing stuff (53.7%) that made him interesting before the injuries. His FIP (2.84) and opponent makes him the best spot starter of the day. Wade Davis is also an interesting name for the day, as he has a good matchup (the Royals) and has been pitching better since the half-way mark (3.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9).

Joe Saunders and Alex Sanabia both have nice matchups (the Dodgers in LA and the Pirates in Florida, respectively), and they limit the walks (2.93 and 1.99 BB/9), but both have poor strikeout rates (5 and 5.85 K/9), so they are better options for those looking to protect ratios than those looking for the K.

Sunday
A little tip for roto players looking to get the most out of their innings limits. On Yahoo, the innings limits are enforced at the end of the day. So if you have one inning going into the final day, you can throw as many arms as you like that day and receive credit for all of them. It may not be in the spirit of the rule, but it is in the rules, and winning eases all pains. If you have little to lose in regards to your ratios, you might as well throw everyone you can that day.

That said, it’s not a great day for streaming. The shallow league prize is probably Ted Lilly, who has a nice matchup against the K-happy Diamondbacks in Los Angeles, but he’s owned in 62% of leagues and you’d have to get lucky to find him on your wire. Mike Pelfrey seems streaky and is in the midst of a decent stretch (only two starts of 3+ runs allowed in his last ten) and he gets the scrubs the Nationals want to run out on their final day in a decent matchup. He’s available about half the time, too. Randy Wolf would be a better matchup if he weren’t a flyballer going into Cincinnati, but he’s been strong this second half at least (3.70 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and is a known quantity.

The deep league prize is probably Marc “Scrabble” Rzepczynski, who is once again striking out over eight per nine (8.1 K/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (51.7%). His walks are once again a little too high, though (4.45 BB/9 this year, 4.42 career), so as his FIP shows (4.87), he’s not without risk. Then again, it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will risk too many of their regulars on the last day, and Scrabble is coming off of a string of good starts, including his last, a gem against the Yankees. I’d rather use him than his opponent Nick Blackburn, as his groundball-inducing repertoire will be going up against a slew of Jays trying to pad career-high homer totals. Strength on strength, I’m not betting against Jose Bautista et al, at least not this year.

Otherwise, it’s a tough day. Had Brad Bergesen not blown up against the Rays, he might look like a decent start against the weaker Tigers offense, but there is that five-run start looking up at you from his game log (as well as his poor strikeout numbers (4.25 K/9) and well-deserved FIP (5.20)). Brian Burres gets an okay matchup in Florida, but he’s not a good pitcher (5.01 K/9, 4.89 FIP). If you are scraping the bottom of this barrel, you’d be better off trying Esmil Rogers, who gets to pitch in St. Louis and has shown the ability to keep the ball on the ground (50.7% career GB) and garner the strikeout (8.47 K/9 this year). Call Rogers the surprise at the bottom of the cracker jacks.

Coming into the year, Erick Aybar was a bit of a deep-league sleeper at a tough position. His first two years in the league had shown small signs of progress towards the ability to be a speedy, albeit underpowered, option at shortstop. Then he struggled his way to a .253/.307/.331 year that has taken most of the bloom off of the rose. Should deep league owners consider him in drafts next year?

Of course, he’s had mediocre BABIP luck this year. His .289 BABIP is both below his career number (.309) and his xBABIP (.328), so he could have had some balls bounce better for him this year. If you add his missing hits back in as singles, his new slash line is .275/.328/.353. Though that’s much closer to his .275/.318/.366 career line, it’s still a step back from offensive production that was borderline at best.

What happened to his power? Before you laugh about putting that adjective anywhere near the 5’10” 170-pound middle infielder, his ISO in 2008 and 2009 was over .100, and much closer to the .126 ISO that batting-average qualifying shortstops averaged this year. His .078 ISO this year was a definitive step back. It’s not his flyball profile – his 36.3% in that category is a career-high. But it may just be in his batted ball profile anyway, since his 14.8% line drive percentage was eighth-worst among qualifiers this year.

There were some positives in this lost year. Aybar did up his walk rate for the third-straight years (though it’s now up to a below-average 6%), and he did steal 21 bases this year. Err.. that’s about it.

So if Aybar can return to a 17/18% line drive percentage, show average batted-ball luck, and therefore find himself back in the .100ish ISO range, he’s a sleeper again in 2011? First, that’s a lot of ifs. Second, we pretty much know what that upside looks like – his .312/.353/.423 2009 season would describe most of that upside, and there’s little reason to think he can push that envelope much further. Maybe he walks a little more, and maybe he adds in his 20-25 steals that he showed he was capable of this year, but we’re talking about a shortstop that could hit near .300 (though that’s no lock if he strikes out 15% of the time next year again) and steal 25 bases, with little home run power. And we know what the downside look likes now.

He’s a sleeper, barely. But the ceiling is low so the cost should be even lower if you’re going to draft him in 2011.

Some people are still fighting in their finals, or trying to squeeze some life out of their last few at-bats, so we’ll do a few last waiver wires. This one is themed by statistical profiles!

Batting Average / On-Base Percentage / Stolen Bases / Runs
There’s no way we can talk about batting average right now and not talk about Mike Aviles (38% owned). Yes, we profiled him just last week, but he’s found that patented Aviles magic once again – his .358 batting average in September is nice. In stretches like this, his low walk rate is a boon: he’s had more at-bats in which to put up those hits, and four multi-hit games in the past week shows it’s working right now. He doesn’t steal many bases, though, so you could also give Cliff Pennington (10% owned) a look in Oakland – he’s getting on base right now and stealing bases to boot. He’s had a nice year, and if he could cut that strikeout rate just a smidgen (19.3% this year, 19.9% career), he might be able to push that batting average up a few points. Franklin Gutierrez is walking a little more in September (5 walks) than he has since his freakish May (20 walks), is playing in a nice park in Texas the next few weeks (against a catcher core that gives up a 67% success rate on stolen bases), and has five stolen bases in his past two weeks. He’s a good shallow league option (26% owned). Ryan Kalish (3% owned) also deserves a mention as the Red Sox fall out of contention, but he’s not quite playing every day, isn’t walking enough just yet (5.6%) and is also batting low in the lineup when he’s in. Finally, deeper leaguers have to look the way of Peter Bourjos (1% owned) for speed and speed alone. He’s still playing most days and he’s swiped four bags in the past two weeks. Beyond improving poor plate discipline stats (3.6% walk rate, 22.4% strikeout rate), Bourjos could also use some regression to the mean in his BABIP (.231). At least he’s gotten on base in five of his last 13 plate appearances and his excellent defense (+36.1 UZR/150!).

Slugging Percentage / Home Runs / RBI
Now we’re looking for boppers. Ty Wigginton (54% owned) is a nice power pickup because he’s playing well and is eligible all over the diamond. The Orioles’ infielder has been wiggin’ out a little at the plate – his strikeout rate climbed almost 7% from last year – but his power is back in line with career norms (.173 ISO, .180 career) and he finishes the year at home, where he has a decent .269/.318/.455 line. He has struggled a little out of the gate, but Pedro Alvarez (19% owned) has been much better in September (.292/.354/.562) and could be your lightning in a bottle – which is, let’s face it, what you are looking for in the final week. The reason we can be excited about this final stretch is that Alvarez has been struggling with the whiff all year (34.9%) but has really cut down on those Ks this month (24.7%), and with nice power already (.200 ISO) and more on the way (.251 ISO in minor leagues), that lower strikeout rate will play just fine. We’ve given Michael Morse (9% owned) a lot of love recently for his power, but he deserves another shout-out here. John Bowker (1% owned) and Lucas Duda (0% owned) are both available in most leagues and could run into some home runs this week as their teams look to next year. Bowker might be the better bet – he’s in his peak years at 27 years old, and has all that minor league promise yet to be tapped into (.198 career minor league ISO, up to .264 over his final two stops). On the other hand, the Bucs draw decent pitching staffs in Florida and St. Louis while the Mets face Milwaukee and Washington over the final week.

A tough season just got worse for Pablo Sandoval this week when Andrew Baggarly, the San Francisco beat writer, stated out loud what had become increasingly obvious over the past few weeks: the Panda has had to grab some pine. The move has had implications both real and fantasy.

Sandoval is now a dropper in most re-draft leagues. He’s not playing enough and when he does, he’s been struggling. Though he no longer swings at more than 50% of out-of-zone offerings, his 44.4% number in that category this year would still rank him as first- or second-worst among batting title qualifiers in that category over the last three years. He does supplement that with a decent contact percentage on pitches outside the zone (77.1%), but that number ranks as 26th-best this year. And even given that decent contact percentage, he still makes contact on those pitches less often than the average batter on an in-zone pitch (88.2%).

That sort of thing has worked for other batters – obviously, Vladimir Guerrero (39.4 career O-Swing%) comes to mind. Vlad the Impaler owns an edge in both nickname ferocity and power with the bat, and those things are linked. Guerrero’s ISO both career (.243) and 2010 (.191) far out-ranks the kung-fu-less Panda’s (.178, .137 respectively). Guerrero has always had a nice BABIP (.319 career), but until recently he was also a svelte, athletic base runner.

Otherwise, the similarities continue. Guerrero’s groundball-to-flyball ratio is 1.20, while Sandovals’ is over one again (1.19 this year, 1.25 career). They both reach, they both put the ball on the ground, and until this year, they both had nice BABIPs. Sandoval’s current BABIP (.289) is well below his career level (.324) as well as his xBABIP (.307). But, even with a few ticks forward in batting average, his missing power is a problem.

He’s stuck in a bind here. He could elevate the ball more and add some power via the flyball, but then his BABIP would drop because of the basic nature of flyballs. Or he could continue on his path and wait for his BABIP luck to return – he did have close to a .200 ISO combined over his last three minor league stops, with high BABIPs and the same approach. The problem with being a ‘Fat Ichiro’ is that those high BABIPs have something to do with Ichiro’s high volume of groundballs and his ability to use his athleticism and funky run/swing combo to his advantage. Sandoval has neither of those abilities, nor the raw power of Guerrero.

He’s in a tough position, and so are his keeper league owners. Deeper keeper league owners have no choice but to hold on to him and hope the kung fu returns – there’s no sense in selling low. Shallower leagues can bid him adieu.

In re-draft leagues, there are a couple more notes regarding his benching. Edgar Renteria will play shortstop most days, and given his current ISO (.100) and career ISO (.113), it seems that he could outperform his ZiPs RoS ISO (.050) fairly easily. The ZiPs number is understandable given his ISO last year (.078) and age (35), but Renteria’s team is in a pennant race and the end of his career is possibly in sight – motivation levels are high. Deep league owners looking for magic in a bottle could look his direction, considering his availability (5% owned). Ditto for Juan Uribe, but he was playing often already, is owned in more leagues (22% owned), and might just have used up all of his tricks in his two-homer, six-RBI inning the other day.

Before we do an early-early 2011 ranking for these positions, let’s do one last update on shortstops and second basemen around the league. We’re still playing 2010 ball, for another couple of weeks at least.

Ryan Raburn, Tigers (57% owned)
There’s probably no better way to inject some power into your shallow league middle infield than picking up Ryan Raburn and sticking him at second base. His current .207 ISO is impressive for a second baseman (qualifying second basemen average a .1396 ISO this year), and not far off of his career pace (.196). It looks sustainable, if only because he is again hitting most of his balls in the air (46% this year, 47.7% last year, 44% career). He’s also steadily cut down on his infield fly balls (8.6% this year, 12.1% career). He’s a flawed player – he strikes out too much (24.3% this year, 25.2% career) to really put up a nice batting average, and his UZR/150 at second base (-27.4) suggests that he’s no long-term solution at the position. But right here, right now, watching your league slip away from you – Raburn can give your team a short-term power boost at a tough position.

Jose Lopez, Mariners (37% owned)
You hit three home runs in one (major league) game and you’ll get a writeup in this space too. The amazing thing about how bad his season has been is that even with that outburst, he’s hitting .200/.218/.347 in September and .237/.267/.337 on the year. At least he’s predictable. Lopez has now had five seasons with below-average power and his career ISO (.134) is also sub-par. Because he also doesn’t walk (3.5% this year, 3.7% career), he’s left with one sole skill in his offensive bag of tricks (and it’s offensive for sure). He still doesn’t strike out (10.9% this year, 11.9% career). Also, his fielding is mostly rated as positive. But that’s not enough to start on a good team, so either Lopez will be starting for a bad team next year, or he’ll be a backup. For now, pick him up at your own peril. Honestly, those 37% of Yahoo owners must include about 35% of owners that have checked out on the season.

David Eckstein, Padres (2% owned)
It’s nice to know that fantasy owners are 98% immune to the guile of the average local baseball columnist – and that Fire Joe Morgan came back for a day to remind us how bad sportswriting about Eckstein can be. Even though his proponents might say that his skills don’t translate on paper, there is one nice thing about playing Eckstein in the final weeks of your deep league, and it does show up in the boxscore (on paper). He doesn’t walk (5.4%) or strike out (7.7%). Sure, he doesn’t have any power (.062 ISO), but he’ll make the most use of his at-bats in the fantasy sense. Walks and strikeouts can be largely negative things when you are looking for batting average and batting average alone. Play Eckstein if you are looking for an average boost because he’ll get the most of his at-bats in a box score sense – and his grission level is off the charts, too. With Jerry Hairston Jr out for the year, he should play every day too.

A little turmoil today leads to two easy waiver wire pickups. Run don’t walk!

Michael Wuertz, Athletics (20% owned)
Looks like Andrew Bailey is going to Dr. James Andrews and is done for the year. That sounds terrible because it is. Well, the ‘done for the year’ part is not so terrible considering there are two weeks left, but the ‘Dr. James Andrews’ part is pretty bad. Wuertz has been good but not great this year – the strikeouts are still there (9.31 per nine), but he lost all the gains he made last year with his control. His walk rate (4.6 BB/9) is too close to his career level (4.05 BB/9) to think that this is really fluky. Instead, it looks like last year’s walk rate (2.63 BB/9) is the outlier. It’s a shame, but he has the punch to close, at least against right-handed lineups (3.29 career FIP against righties). His 4.21 FIP against lefties probably means that Craig Breslow will steal a save or two (3.43 FIP against lefties career). Together, that’s a decent closer, although a long-term injury to Bailey would have the Athletics hoping that Wuertz can corral the slider better next year. He does throw the pitch a whopping 65% of the time.

Mike Aviles, Royals (22% owned)
Well, maybe you don’t have to run to get Mike Aviles in your lineup. But Chris Getz did get shut down after experiencing renewed dizziness after working out today. He’s probably done for the year, given how long other concussion victims have been out this year. Aviles didn’t quite take the season by storm, as his ISO (.093) never got back to his career levels (.118). That’s sort of important, considering he doesn’t walk (4.4% career), and the only other offensive skill he offers is “not striking out” (11.2% this year, 13.8% career, average usually around 20%). In the last thirty days, however, Aviles has hit over .300 with power and speed and has been more than a decent middle infield stopgap. He’s not a great player, and while he has more power than Getz, the fact that Getz walks more, has more speed, and is a better defender will probably win out long term.