We’re splitting the outfielder and starting pitcher rankings into two leagues so that your positional correspondents can handle the workload. But you’re in a mixed league and drafting this week. So, for your use, we smashed the outfielder rankings together this week.
Now it’s time for the pitchers.
It’s not feasible, wordpress-wise, to print and link all of the outfielders in a single post. And once the season gets going, we are splitting the RotoGraphs staff into positional correspondents – and the short straw would certainly be starters and outfielders if we were going to keep those positions in the hands of a single writer. So instead, you’ll have an American League outfield correspondent and an NL one (hint: you’re looking at him). Same for pitchers.
But in the meantime, you mixed leaguers are left wondering where you should get your best outfield rankings. Wonder no longer, because I’ve shared a mixed-league composite of the RotoGraph outfield rankings in this google document right here. Hopefully this will help you dominate your league. Starters will come later in the week, and you can always find this post by hitting the ‘outfielders’ tag in the ‘categories’ box to your bottom right. Here are the AL Outfielders and the NL Outfielders if you want more analysis.
The FanGraphs in-house league drafted last week, and 60 cans of PBR and Tecate into the Arizona dawn, we were mostly finished. My domination – though assured – will be even sweeter against competition like the FanGraphs staff. Despite the danger of putting the cart before the horse, I’ll call PBR the champagne of beers and crack one open for myself.
Well, maybe. I tend to be a little bipolar with my fantasy teams. It’s either all good or all terrible. Tell me what you think.
12-Team Ottoneu LWTS Points
It’s A Perm
C Geovany Soto $26
C Ryan Doumit $1
Read the rest of this entry »
Reading the daily tea leaves surrounding the possible move of Neftali Feliz from closer to starter can get a little confusing. First, he’s their closer until something changes and he wants to be the closer. Now, he wants to be a starter and his GM thinks he would be more valuable in that role. Last, a national writer feels it would be an upset if he starts. What a way to mess up rankings.
The good news for those that drafted Feliz is that he’ll probably be valuable in fantasy baseball either way. He’s so excellent that he can survive the average 0.7 MPH drop that occurs during the switch according to Jeremy Greenhouse’s work. If his 96 MPH gas turns into 95 MPH gas, it’s still gas. According to Tom Tango’s work, he’ll also lose about 17% of his K/PA and his BABIP and HR/FB will increase by about 17%.
You’ve probably gotten a handle on how things are going here. We RotoGraph writers got together around Carson’s virtual, incredibly round table, and ranked the players. Then we smashed them together and today I’ll add the tiers. These rankings assume regular settings (but plan on seeing some articles about players that step forward in alternate settings). Once the season starts, I’ll be your NL OF correspondent, continually updating the rankings and discussing player news at the position.
RotoGraphs will also provide a list of mixed-league OF ranks. Because of the way things are set up here, we won’t be able to offer strong coverage at the position without splitting them into leagues. But we can give you a draft-prep sheet for mixed-league outfielders and will as soon as we can. And one last thing – click on the tags in the bottom right navbar and you can easily skip to the position you’d like to read about.
Caddyshack
Ryan Braun
Carlos Gonzalez
Matt Holliday
Though this tier is not without questions, the questions are a lot more muted than the rest of the position. Braun’s power will hopefully regress to career levels, and even if Gonzalez is unhappy about his regression in batted-ball luck, he should be a valuable player. Holliday is the metronome, but the lineup around him is worse than you might expect, and he owns less power than you might think. Don’t sell them short, though, they’re tremendous slouches/outfielders.
Ghostbusters
Matt Kemp
Andrew McCutchen
Jayson Werth
Justin Upton
Jason Heyward
Hunter Pence
If you gotta call someone, you might as well call these guys. Every member of this tier will give you something in all five categories – and yet they may give a little something back somewhere else. Kemp’s Ks mean a lower batting average, McCutchen’s power is an open question, Werth is leaving a nice home park and has always struck out a lot, Heyward needs to stay healthy and show the power we know is coming, and Pence has to avoid the bad streak that comes almost every year.
This is Spinal Tap
Andre Ethier
Jay Bruce
Shane Victorino
Mike Stanton
Drew Stubbs
Chris Young
Corey Hart
Colby Rasmus
Martin Prado
This tier is mostly in transit. Some are on their way up, some on their way down, and all feature questions more prominently than the last group. For the most part, you won’t get a nice batting average here, and if you start falling behind in that category, you may find yourself skipping the group. That would be too bad, because someone here will dial it to eleven this year.
The 40-Year Old Virgin
Angel Pagan
Jason Bay
Aubrey Huff
Michael Bourn
Carlos Lee
Jose Tabata
Dexter Fowler
Chris Coghlan
Same as the last verse, just a little bit worse. All the veterans here are closer to extinction, and all the young guys have lower ceilings. These guys are flawed, but if they fall far enough, they’ll provide your team with value. And even limited upside is still upside – just don’t put them on a pedestal.
Step Brothers
Carlos Beltran
Lance Berkman
Marlon Byrd
Seth Smith
Will Venable
Alfonso Soriano
Logan Morrison
Nyjer Morgan
Andres Torres
Ryan Ludwick
Raul Ibanez
Tyler Colvin
This is not the time for a Will Ferrell referendum, but even his biggest fans would admit that he has better movies. Still, the movie was good for some great lines, and most of these guys will be able to hit offer some good lines for a stretch or two. Over the course of the year, you will start to see their flaws, but a few high notes is enough at their prices.
Coneheads
Cody Ross
Garrett Jones
Nate McLouth
Domonic Brown
Carlos Gomez
Jonny Gomes
Ben Francisco
Cameron Maybin
Mark DeRosa
Mike Morse
Roger Bernadina
Ryan Spilborghs
Chris Dickerson
Kosuke Fukudome
Ryan Sweeney
Brad Hawpe
Kyle Blanks
A fundamentally flawed movie and tier, you’ll still get a chuckle or two. One or two of these guys may even rise above his peers and make great movies, I mean become a fantasy regular at his position. But the odds are not in their favor this year.
Well, here we are. It’s the beginning of March, the birds are chirping, baseball is being played, and it’s fantasy baseball drafting season for most of us. It’s also supposed to be the day that the FanGraphs Fantasy game, ottoneu, becomes more expensive. Well, as some of you may have already noticed, that won’t be the case. A new team will continue to cost $9.99, and we hope that helps you keep a few more duckets in your pocket while you have fun managing your new team.
We’ve extended the low-price early-bird special… and we hope to bring you even more exciting news about other ottoneu offerings in the coming days. Mysterious!
But that’s not the only fun thing we get to announce today. In order to add some value to the game, we’ve searched high and wide in order to find you some Guest Commissioners to play with. These players have agreed to attach their name to an ottoneu league – and you get to take them on. Hopefully, on this list, is a writer you’ve wanted to battle. Now you get to test your wits against:
Zach Sanders (FanGraphs)
Chris Cwik (FanGraphs)
Michael Rathburn (RotoExperts)
The Common Man (Platoon Advantage)
Will Moller (ItsAboutTheMoneyStupid)
John Halpin (FOXSports)
Ben Jedlovec (Baseball Info Solutions)
Derek VanRiper (RotoWire)
Justin Merry (BeyondtheBoxscore, FanGraphs)
Jeff Gross (TheHardballTimes)
Josh Shepardson (TheHardballTims)
Sam Miller (The Orange County Register)
Craig Brown (Baseball Prospectus)
Matthew Callan (AmazinAvenue)
Tim Heaney (KFFL)
Eriq Gardner (Bloomberg Sports, FantasyBaseballJunkie.com)
Reggie Yinger (Baseball Press)
Justin Phan (Fantasy Baseball Cafe)
DJ Short (RotoWorld)
A few administrative things. The draft date set by our guest commissioners is final if they want it to be. Hopefully, they’ll list the draft time in the league title, along with their name and affiliation, so you can easily peruse draft times and commissioners when you search for a new league. This also goes for the league settings. We hope that you will be respectful of the commissioners, but bring your “A” game.
Because it’s a good list of fantasy players.
We’ve been dissecting ottoneu one – the flagship league that spawned the FanGraphs fantasy game – and it seems we’ve been having fun doing it. Oh, and of course, someone usually ends up with a free team for the inaugural year. That might have something to do with why people find it fun.
One of the reasons that the game has resonated with so many players is the mix of valuation and keeping. Go into the auction like many have done before, go home with a value player as anybody worth their salt in auction leagues is capable of doing, and then at the end of the year, you are faced with salary inflation and arbitration. Now you have a new set of issues to ponder.
Was that player, who was a value at $x, worth $x+2 after a year of aging? Or does the risk put forward by his extra year of age eliminate that surplus value? You’re a general manager at the winter meetings pondering trade ideas. You’re examining your projections, and valuing the projected numbers. The advantage you have over your real-life GM is the fact that you, at any moment, can cut a player you don’t feel is performing up to his cost.
So we come to the keeper decisions made in ottoneu one – you can keep anyone you like, provided the price is right. Remember, the guys in this league are all FanGraphs readers like you, so let’s not get too snarky. They’ll be watching, and they’re all just trying to win their leagues like the rest of us. But, it’s still worth a discussion.
For a year of a free ottoneu/FanGraphs fantasy team, argue which hitter and which pitcher of the following actual keepers was the worst decision of this current offseason. Best argument wins.
Oh, and for context, I’ve added screenshots of the most expensive players in ottoneu one – this way you get to see how sweet the leaderboard looks, too. Pick one hitter and one pitcher in your comment:
Miguel Cabrera ($52)
Mark Teixeira ($46)
Jay Bruce ($30)
Andre Ethier ($26)
Justin Verlander ($44)
Johan Santana ($37)
Chad Billingsley ($28)
Ted Lilly ($17)
I haven’t always felt this way, but auctions are pretty sweet. How often does someone have to grab that sleeper from you just because of the vagaries of the snake draft before you start thinking about auctions anyway? How great is it to decide a player is worth something, plus or minus, and then go toe to toe with someone that has a similar evaluation of that player? It’s an exciting process, and it really makes you put your player valuation money where your mouth is.
Adding keeper functionality to an auction league just makes even more sense. As I migrated from snake to auction in my fantasy preferences, I’ve also migrated to keeper leagues. Aren’t we trying to play at being GMs here? In a way, we must be approximating the thrill of running a team, and a keeper auction league is probably the closest you can get without hitting the sim leagues – which are cool, but I’d rather leave defense out. It’s just so tough to evaluate.
In any case, as the title indicates, my personal fantasy baseball trends have led me to ottoneu, the new fantasy game at FanGraphs. I hope you enjoy the game as much as I will. Let’s play another “Trade Tree” game, shall we? This seemed popular the first time around. It’s pretty sweet that all of these trades would show up on the respective player pages in your league, and it does a good job of illustrating how ottoneu game play goes.
For a free year (one team) of ottoneu fantasy, argue who got the most value for their Dan Haren in ottoneu one, the flagship league of the game.
Team 1: Traded $19 Haren during the 2009 season for $7 Joba Chamberlain, $5 Dexter Fowler and $5 Justin Smoak
Team 2: Traded $21 Haren before the 2010 season with $19 Adam Jones for $5 Shin-Soo Choo
Team 3: Traded $23 Haren before the 2011 season for $12 Clay Buchholz, $6 Martin Prado and $4 Jason Kipnis
*Before you knock any team too harshly, remember to appreciate the context in which these trades took place. I know you don’t have team data, but look at the year at least. Also, this is for 4×4 ottoneu (OBP, SLG, HR, R / ERA, WHIP, K, HR/9)
You may have heard that FanGraphs got a fantasy game. It’s hard to contain my excitement, but let’s start with some pithy slogans!
No People Herding!
This auction dynasty is open year-round, so commissioners don’t have to email everyone to remind them to get their keepers in, and what were their players’ prices again, and what did they want to do with those two hurt guys again and what happened to Charlie and did Jim change his email or is he just on his annual three-week trek to the Harry Baals Community Center for that Baccarat Tournament?
No, the game is there waiting. It’s always there.
It’s backstop day at the RG, as we debuted our rankings and then profiled the top five targets and some deep sleepers. Now it’s time to look at the middle of the rankings, identify some guys that are falling in this year’s drafts, and decide if they merit more love.
Matt Wieters
Once projected to be a superstar in his rookie season, the shine has seemingly come off of Wieters, and he’s all the way down to near-double digits in our rankings. Here’s a thing I discovered while researching this piece about Carlos Santana, however: it does seem that catchers take a little longer to develop their offense. Whether it’s because they focus on defense and game calling first, or because they are one of the worst offensive positions overall, it takes a few years. Switch-hitting catchers from Victor Martinez to Jason Varitek and Jorge Posada all took until 25 or later to bust out. Wieters is 24 and that, as well as his minor league record, is probably the best statistic in his favor. With incremental improvements in his walk rate, strikeout rate, swinging strike rate, and ISO, there are other statistics that back up the idea that perhaps Wieters shouldn’t be sliding this far. Consider taking him slightly ahead of his ADPs (130.04 at MDC, 111.2 at Yahoo) in order to snag his upside.
Jorge Posada
If age is the reason to be up-beat about Matt Wieters, then it’s the reason that Jorge Posada is falling in drafts and rankings this year. And of course we have to temper any expectations that we might have for him because of his age. The record for at-bats for a catcher over 39 is Carlton Fisk with 454 (second is Fisk at 452, third is Bob Boone at 405, and those are the only seasons over 400). Fisk is also the only person to ever hit more than double-digit home runs after 39, as he hit 23 at 39, 19 at 40, 13 at 41 and 18 at 42. So, if you’re taking Posada, you’re basically hoping he’ll be the best or second- best old catcher ever. Of course, that’s possible, because Posada’s 22 home runs in 2009 were the third-best number ever by a catcher over 37. He’s done it before. Oh, and he’s going to DH this year, which will have to be counted as a positive even if he hasn’t done so well in that role before. It should, at the very least, help him get more ABs.
Miguel Montero
Montero is young-ish (27), and once hit .294 with 16 home runs, and yet he’s falling in drafts this year (125.6 ADP in MDC, 158.2 in Yahoo). The ADPs might be reasonable, but is he worth picking after the tenth round is completed? Maybe (hah). A full, healthy season from Montero could produce a home run total in the mid-teens and a decent batting average for a catcher, judging from his career .267 number in the category. Can he stay healthy? He’s only officially hit the DL twice in his carer – for right knee surgery in 2010 (62 days missed) and for a fractured finger in 2008 (31 days missed) – and yet he’s averaged only 313 PAs since 2007. It looks like Montero is best drafted as part of a quantity, not quality approach late in your drafts. Pick him and Posada late in the game and you’ll probably have a decent catcher this year, one way or the other.