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Updated Rankings: National League Outfielders

We RotoGraphs positional correspondents will be updating our rankings in the following weeks. The purpose of this excercise is to show movement – despite the small sample size so far, players have showed us something to digest. Either they’ve shown they can be an every-day starter so far, or they’ve lost their grip on a job. Some movement is natural.

But we’re also probably going to change our rankings a little less than the average media outlet. We know that the last three weeks shouldn’t have changed too much about what we think about these players on a fundamental level. So if you see a slumping star ranked highly, take pause before emoting. He may still show he’s worth that ranking. The arrows are for players that have jumped tiers, since they are the most interesting anyway.

Top of the Line
Ryan Braun
Carlos Gonzalez
Matt Holliday
Matt Kemp

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RotoGraphs Chat – 4/15/11


Chronicles of ottoneu: Platoon Catcher Strategy

Save for a few rogue ottoneu one league members, we’re all new to this game. One quirk in the game is the fact that though we have two catcher slots, we only get 162 games from those two slots combined. This is to reflect the reality shown in real baseball – all catcher situations are tandems, more or less. It’s a difficult position, and so even the hardiest, youngest catchers need days off. This does leave ottoneu managers in a difficult position – how do we best handle that position?

Let’s focus on the top 12 catchers by games played last year. They averaged 130 games played. That means you should really buy a number one catcher and then look for a $1 value to plug in for those other 32 games. That means if you are playing two catchers every game, you better watch out for your games played limit, like, now.

But how should you use those 32 games best? One thing you could do is find a backup catcher with a great platoon split. Then you could play him whenever that split is activated, and get more value out those games. Going back to 2008 in order to get a decent sample, here are some guys that have played well against lefties but might be backups in your ottoneu league:

Kelly Shoppach (.396 wOBA)
John Buck (.374 wOBA)
Carlos Ruiz (.368 wOBA)
Ryan Hanigan (.360 wOBA)
Ronny Paulino (.353 wOBA)

A natural extension of this approach might actually have you sitting your primary catcher if they aren’t great against southpaws. That would leave more at-bats for your backup in case you ended up with two strong catchers. Here are some front-line dudes that don’t play so front-line against lefties:

Matt Wieters (.275 wOBA)
Kurt Suzuki (.292 wOBA)
Miguel Montero (.328 wOBA)
Russell Martin (.333 wOBA)
Brian McCann (.333 wOBA)

There are some obvious caveats that should come to mind. First, this second list includes some young players that have not ‘proven’ that they cannot hit lefties yet. Also, a .333 wOBA is above average, and strong for a catcher, so maybe you shouldn’t sit Brian McCann, like, ever.

But there is a chance that if you have a first catcher that is a little weaker against lefties, and a backup catcher that is strong against lefties, you might find a great mix between the two. With a little daily effort, you can use platoon splits to get the best 162 games out of your roster.


Josh Hamilton Out – Enter David Murphy

Earlier today, we learned that Josh Hamilton would miss six-to-eight weeks with a non-displaced fracture of his humorous bone. Check that, humerus – it’s not very funny for Rangers fans and Hamilton owners, after all. Badumching. What does this mean for the Rangers? We’ll be right along with plenty of waiver wire replacements, but the Rangers will obviously need to move things around.

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NL OF: Mike Morse, Allen Craig

Let’s take a look at a couple National League outfielders that might be interesting for teams of different depths.

Michael Morse (20% owned in Yahoo, 2.8% owned in ESPN)
Maybe ESPN has fewer five-outfield leagues. Maybe Yahoo has more NL-only leagues. ESPN’s projections aren’t fabulous – a .341 OBP with 15 home runs – but you’d think that would be owned in more than 2.8% of all leagues. Let’s not get too up in arms about this, though, because Morse is making it tough for us to love him. Yes, he’s playing at first base with Adam LaRoche feeling his sore shoulder, but its unlikely he’s going to be worth much more as a corner infielder than a fifth outfielder. The thing that is most concerning about his early-season work is his strikeout rate. So far he’s struck out in a third of his at-bats after putting up a 23.9% percentage over his career. It’s in a small sample size, but given that Morse struck out in 30.1% of his 55 PAs in 2009 and 24.1% of his 293 PAs last year, and that makes up about half of his 717 career major league PAs, we shouldn’t be sure that we know his true-talent-level strikeout rate just yet.

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RotoGraphs Chat – 4/8/11


FanGraphs ottoneu Experts League Draft Results

We held what might perhaps be the first keeper auction experts league on the 31st. The results were epic.

At least, they felt that way after so many adult sodas, so many auctions.
So many broken dreams.

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NL Outfielders: Ben Francisco, Lance Berkman

As a RotoGraph positional correspondent, I’ll be updating the National League outfielder rankings and discussing all things NL OF here going forward. Since it’s a little early to be changing up the rankings, let’s just talk about a couple of outfielders that might deserve to be owned in more leagues.

Lance Berkman (33% owned in Yahoo, 97.4% in ESPN)
This is a strange one. I would actually argue that he deserves to be owned in fewer than 97.4% of leagues because I don’t think the outfield will do his body good. With knee and back problems already in his past, roaming the expansive outfield in St. Louis will probably mean more missed games over the course of the season, and his muted power upside and average-ish averages mean he shouldn’t be owned in almost every league – that sort of ownership level suggests dependability and consistent ability.

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Brandon Belt is Free, And On the Giants

The #FreeBrandonBelt hashtag has made it’s way around the internets. Perhaps it was the way he tore up the minor leagues. Or the way he mashed his way through the Arizona Fall League (.372/.427/.616 in an offense-friendly league). Maybe it was the fact that he was a converted college pitcher new to being a slugger. Could have been the alliteration. Or the obvious athleticism.

Whatever the reason(s), he’ buckled in and ready to go and there’s a general frivolity in the air surrounding the Giants’ decision to give Brandon Belt the opening day assignment at first base. What should fantasy owners expect of the strapping young lad?

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The FanGraphs Fantasy ottoneu Experts League

Is there an elite experts dynasty league out there? One doesn’t immediately come to mind. And with ottoneu in the FanGraphs fold, it’s a perfect time to break new ground. So, in that vein, we are proud to announce the first annual FanGraphs Fantasy ottoneu Experts League. This 5×5 auction keeper will draft opening day and will surely test the wills and knowledge or our esteemed competitors.

Andy Behrens
(Yahoo – Roto Arcade)
Michael Rathburn (RotoExperts)
Jeff Erickson / Peter Schoenke (RotoWire)
Andrew Fiorentino, (RotoWire)
Tim Heaney / Nicholas Minnix (KFFL)
Andy Andres (Tufts University)
Neil FitzGerald (BaseballHQ)
Tom Keppy (BaseballHQ)
James Quintong (ESPN)
Jack Moore (RotoHardball)
Eno Sarris (FanGraphs)
Chad Young (ottoneu)

We’ll be reporting in on this league periodically, and you’ll hear from our competitors, too. Wish your hometown heroes best, and give us your best advice in the comments!