Hey guys! Gotta pop in and out today, but wanted to be around in a time of need. Throw a question at me, preferably one that’s about chat-sized, and I’ll try to answer it some time today.
Happy Friday!
I’ll be by in fifteen for the chatting!
Andre Ethier usually launches bombs, but over the weekend he dropped a bomb on the Dodgers-related news media. The 29-year-old outfielder admitted that he’s been playing with pain in his right knee all year. General Manager Ned Colletti was having none of it, responding with an incredulous question: “What am I supposed to be concerned about?” This is a man who knows how to handle personnel in the media. Give him a better team to destroy, right?
Snark aside, we know that many keeper and dynasty teams are looking to next season and beyond. Therefore it makes sense to evaluate Ethier’s year, future with the Dodgers, and long-term fantasy prognosis with this knee injury in mind. In other words, does this news kill his keeper value?
I’ll be here around 12:30 pm eastern for all of your fantasy needs and desires. Dirty!
It’s time to avoid the puns and get right to it: Does Jayson Werth deserve a lineup spot in shallower leagues right now?
We know that some of Werth’s problem is luck. He’s showing a .282 BABIP right now and his xBABIP, based on his unique mix of batted balls, is .303. Since earlier in the season, he’s hitting more line drives and fewer infield fly balls. Both good things, they also lead to a better batting average. That’s probably why he’s hitting .261 since the All-Star break.
Over the weekend, two Pittsburgh outfielders started their rehab assignments at the same time. Since they’ve been injured, much has changed on their major league team. At one point, the Pirates were in first place. Now they are in fourth. They were above five hundred, now they’re seven games under. They were buyers, and now they are 13 games out of first and might already be looking to next year.
But, most importantly for fantasy baseball addicts, the two jobs that were theirs have been distilled down into one starting spot. Yup, Jose Tabata and Alex Presley will return soon and they may find themselves in a battle for playing time.
Hola! Eno Sarris will be here at 1230, but the chat window will be open shortly after noon so you can leave your questions in the queueueue.
Per-pitch numbers stabilize quicker than per at-bat numbers, or so goes an untested belief. Tested or not, the sample is larger, as the average at-bat lasts between three and four pitches. So you’d think that per-pitch numbers would stabilize up to four times faster.
Well, maybe the relationship is not so linear. But let’s use per-pitch numbers to take a look at Dontrelle Willis, who struck out ten Rockies last night and suddenly looks like a beast. Yes, that Dontrelle Willis.
With the unfortunate knee injury to Daniel Murphy, starting roles are in flux in New York. Ike Davis has also admitted recently that he’ll out of commission all year most likely. There’s playing time to be had.
Lucas Duda (3% owned in Yahoo)
We last profiled el Duderino at the end of June, so it’s time for an update. There are still plenty of reasons to be excited about Duda, even if his overall .262/.329/.436 line is underwhelming for a corner outfielder slash first baseman. First, there’s obviously power upside remaining. Duda ISO’ed .295 at Triple-A in 2010 and 2011 (455 PAs combined), and managed a .214 ISO in his debut (92 PAs). He hits more fly balls than ground balls, and he looks like an ox. For some reason, he’s only managing a 5.9% HR/FB number right now, but that’s not statistically reliable yet. Power is tied into his batting average, and if he can inch that power forward, he could beat his ZiPs RoS projections (.246/.324/.421) because the rest of the batting average package (other than speed) is there. He doesn’t strike out much (7.5% swinging strike rate is below average, and so is his 14.1% strikeout percentage). He’s hitting gobs of line drives (23.3%, average is 19%). He’s not an extreme fly ball hitter (0.94 GB/FB). Throw those batted ball numbers into an xBABIP calculator, and you get .328 (not his current .286). So it’s on the power: if he shows a little more of it, he could be a .275/.340/.480 guy for the next two months, which does work in most leagues.
Scott Hairston (0% owned in Yahoo)
Though he does represent an upgrade over Met bench pieces of the past, Hairston is most likely only a bench part. As much as we try to avoid using platoon splits too often here, the Chin owns a sizeable split that has affected his usage. In over 700 PAs against left-handers, Hairston is a useful .278/.331/.492 player. Against over 1200 PAs against same-handed players? The 31-year-old is batting .228/.289/.411. He still shows power, which is the best part of his game, but there seems to be something going on there. If you can put him on your deep league bench and slot him in against southpaws, you’ll come out ahead.
Nick Evans (0% owned)
If Lucas Duda is really the starting first baseman, and Scott Hairston is best used against right-handers, perhaps the 25-year-old Evans will draw the starts against right-handers. Unfortunately the player nicknamed ‘Who’ by Met faithful is also right-handed and hasn’t distinguished himself as a bona fide major league regular so far. Well, it would be unfair to judge him on his 266 major league PAs. But his minor league PAs haven’t been so amazing for a player older than his competition performing near his peak. His walk rates have been at average or worse, his strikeout rates around average, and last year he had a .149 ISO in Triple-A. It’s true that he’s had better years in the past, and it’s possible he could be useful in the deepest of leagues. But Evans didn’t once have a year as nice as Duda’s last two years in the same parks.