This probably should have been posted before the season, but the idea just came to me. We see research here all the time, and that research often produces fantasy baseball sleepers, so let’s gather them in one place.
Gotta pick him up. Chris Coghlan won a rookie of the year, y’all. And he’s got a job. Sort of — a platoon with Justin Ruggiano — but he’s got a job in center field in Florida and he’s a former ROY winner and he hit .321 once.
If you take Coghlan’s rookie of the year season and extrapolate it out to 700 plate appearances, he had a .321/11/10 season. And that was when he was pre-peak. He’s now 27 and likely to be the fastest and strongest he’ll ever be.
And now his career is on the line. Justin Ruggiano strikes out too much to be an impediment. Expect Coghlan to take this job and run with it, hitting .300 with 15 home runs and 15 steals. That would make him one of the better values of the season, considering he’s owned in zero percent of leagues. Zero percent, guys, what’s going on here. He was the rookie of the year!
The Yasiel Puig movement is starting in Los Angeles. Carlos Beltran is hurt in St. Louis and the temptation is to turn to Oscar Taveras. And Wil Myers was the biggest prospect traded this offseason, and he’s on a team that could use a corner outfielder. What to do with these young outfielders in redraft leagues?
It’s that time of year again! One quick caveat out of the way — these are bold predictions, meant to highlight interesting players in a pie-in-the-sky kind of way — and then we can start dreaming. I did okay with last year’s bold predictions, so let’s try it again:
1) Andrelton Simmons will be this year’s Jose Altuve.
Jose Altuve began last season as our 16th-ranked preseason consensus second baseman. He hit .290 with seven home runs and 33 stolen bases and ended the season as our 11th-ranked second baseman. This year Andrelton Simmons is our 16th-ranked preseason shortstop. It’s not actually that bold to predict him to join the top twelve shortstops, but hey, that’s how I get a couple right. Simmons has more power than Altuve, I like him for a similar batting average, and atop the Braves order, he might actually steal 25 bags.
We don’t want to give you ranking fatigue here, but it is useful to tier your positional ranks. I like to get the last guy in a tier — especially among closers, where the production is so volatile and tied specifically to role. But even among outfielders, the idea is that you’ll get a guy that’s equal-ish to another group, but you’ll get him cheaper.
We split the National League and the American League so that you’ll get the best coverage of the position. There are a lot of outfielders, after all. And yes, some of these guys will have moved since the consensus ranks. Focus more on the tiers than the placement of the players within. That was more intuitive, and probably a little bit reactionary.
To the tiers.
“Out of crisis comes opportunity.”
That’s the mantra anyone contemplating the Marlins infield should probably try to hold on to. Cause it’s definitely a crisis, that squad. Practically every position is up for grabs, and some new players will own starting roles in Miami this year. The problem, though, is that most of the players that might take the opportunity born of this crisis are flawed, and some are extremely flawed. There might not be a mixed league starter in the whole crew.
There are probably six players on this depth chart that are more important than Evan Gattis. But it’s fine if you want to read about Evan Gattis, I won’t be bitter. I promise.
Last week was all about the consensus ranks. This week, you’ll see some tiered ranks as we also try to finish up the depth chart discussion. But before we move on too quickly, I thought it would be interesting and informative for me to pick out the players that I liked and disliked more than the other analysts involved in the consensus ranks. Hopefully I’ll have a short, concise reason for my rankings in each case. Hopefully.
Relievers! Are they the kickers of fantasy baseball? It might be even worse: kickers at least give you straight points. There is no ‘field goal’ category. There is a ‘saves’ category, however, and only relievers can get you anywhere in that category. So hold your nose and jump in.
I’m a big fan of picking at the end of tiers — and your bullpen reporters will get you tiered rankings soon, and then give you daily updates about bullpens around the league — so there are some names that jump out at me. Joe Nathan looks like the last guy we all agree belongs in the top tier. Then somewhere around Rafael Soriano and Tom Wilhelmsen there seems to be a second tier. Then I’d usually take a break and take two fliers. Let’s say two of Ryan Madson, Steve Cishek and Bobby Parnell. Then again, my “closers” in AL-LABR were Jose Veras, Joaquin Benoit, and Andrew Bailey.
I don’t like to pay much for saves, in other words.
The pitcher rankings! My favorite. There are just so many of them, and so many different ways to project and predict. Do you focus on injuries and their likelihood? Do you focus on performance? Are you risk-averse and like veterans, or do you go for broke and get the young guys?
As usual, the best approach is probably to mix it up. Get an older, undervalued guy — could be Jered Weaver or Roy Halladay, depending on which ranker you ask. Get a hot young prospect — Jeff Samardzija, Marco Estrada or Matt Harvey perhaps? Get an injury risk — maybe Jake Peavy or or Brandon Morrow? And throw in a ground-ball dude with lower upside like Trevor Cahill or Tim Hudson for good measure. Hey, I don’t mind this mythical staff we’ve just created, and it wouldn’t be impossible to draft it.